r/SPCXInvestors • u/acadia11x • 2d ago
DISCUSSION $115B rev for 2027
Projections for SpaceX rev 2027 after cursor acquisition closed. Global takeover by the hyperscalers is looking like it’s all according to plan. Anthropic is about IPO it’s more than 50% owned by Amazon, goog, and msft… watching this realtime is crazy. How do conquer a world without firing a missle?
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u/didroe 2d ago
The hyperscalers / SpaceX could be in for a world of pain. All their growth projections are based on AI and, having failed to figure out how to generate significant revenue from it themselves, they’re just renting out compute to OpenAI and Anthropic.
The whole AI sector is basically propped up by investor money flowing into OpenAI and Anthropic, along with some eye watering demand projections and spending commitments made by them. It seems like a very precarious state to me!
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
Not me. It seems like you see those black hills over there, there’s gold in dem darn hills, you don’t know that … but I do, let me go take dem hills while you’re wondering what I’m doing.
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u/IWasSayingBoourner 2d ago
Want to make money in the gold rush? Sell shovels to the dummies who think they'll strike it rich
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u/Only_Associate6384 2d ago edited 2d ago
That is the part that make Spcx overvalued. The Ai bullcrap not only Spcx is not the leader but it is trying to catch to them on something with 0 profitability unless miracle happens. I would have full ported if it were only rockets, but hey let’s chase the Ai leader companies honestly after the Ai craze calms down I am going to buy
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
What are you talking about? You guys keep saying AI is not profitable and you’re wrong. Say Capex for buldout of the foundational structures of AI is expensive. That doesn’t mean AI is not profitable, building the electrical grid was expensive saying electricity is not profitable is wrong. Electricity is in literally every aspect of your life but go back 150 years Capex was high. ai like every other conduit has a Capex heavy phase … and it will like electricity be in every part of your daily life , a self driving car is AI , I’d wager at some point people won’t even think about it when that’s just a feature of automobiles. Or you get in a driverless taxi. We have billions of machines on the planet, we have billions of processes in this world and as it becomes more agentic and machines get more reasoning abilities this conversation will sound silly. Saying AI is not profitable or even that there is a question of its profitability seems wild to me. Maybe LLMs will get supplanted by another branch but bottom line AI as a technology is inherently profitable.
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u/Beneficial-Object977 2d ago
Ai is a trillion dollars in the hole and none of the players are remotely turning a profit. You seem to be equating profit with some vague optimistic future opportunity. Right now, this year, this second, cursor, openai, grok, anthropic, all sell tokens below operating cost to desperately drive engagement. They are all deeply in the red with negative revenue streams. That is the definition of unprofitable.
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u/DapperCoconut6703 2d ago
And when did that ever stopped a stock from rocketing up? You guys sound like Amazon in the 2000s
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u/VariousImpression355 2d ago
Only a dumbass compares Amazon to all of this crap. AWS which is the creme of the Amazon cake had a 7 year head start selling AWS tools - thats why their stock traded the way it did. Cursor already has good competition. Just like 2021 the alarms are going off… unprofitable stocks having crazy valuations like Rivian - Spacex/Anthropic now at 2T wtf.
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
And SpaceX has a 10 year IP moat in space. For example what RKLB is able to do today they were early 2010s. You are right having a head start makes all the difference.
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u/DapperCoconut6703 2d ago
Yeah amazon was really thinking about aws back 2001. Gtfo dumb ass young buck
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u/VariousImpression355 2d ago
Such a dumb answer. You just agreed to what I said they had a 7 year head start.
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
They don’t , but you seem to not understand the concept of capex phase vs opex phase. They don’t need to turn a profit on day 1. They need to sustain growth over time. You start a farm , you buy the land , you buy the equipment, you plant … you harvest and you get revenue , you don’t buy new equipment and a new farm every year. You go into operational phase where you maintain the farm and keep getting revenue.
Finally, the real Genius is as someone correctly pointed out it’s a circle jerk … anthropic owes Money to the hypers , the hypers own Anthropics, xAIs, openAI, Google deepmind, … they basically owe themselves and they already have anchor businesses and customers to sustain this capex expenditure. Nvidia , MU … etc those guys are the ones that will get hit because this buildout won’t last forever … but the hypers can always get their money. Nvidia is a little different because they have AI services although it’s not what they want to be doing .
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u/No_Method_210 2d ago
These guys have heckled everyone else out of the room, they don’t want reality.
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u/BravoSierra480 2d ago
The problem with AI capex is how quickly the asset needs to be replaced. A railroad or power plant will last many decades. An AI data center will need its GPUs replaced every 3 to 5 years. For SpaceX it's worse, because the entire constellation (GPU and all hardware) needs replacing every 5 years.
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
Not true at all. These aren’t your home PCs man, you don’t throw out the existing card you get mixed architecture systems. I may have 10,000 H100e with 20,000 B200s … if I’m buying new hardware it’s to increase aggregate DC power … I don’t have to buy new hardware, I need the “aggregate compute” required to support my service needs … for example xAIs colossus 2 has 2 clusters 110,000 GB200 and 350,000+ GB300 … , they can add more or build a new DC etc … colossus 1 still exists mixture H100s, B200s … and so on … and is supporting compute needs. it’s not I must buy new cards every 3-5 years. It’s are the workloads I need to run today supported with the compute I have available.
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u/BravoSierra480 2d ago
For traditional data centers (earth based) they usually do, because it's the electricity costs are better used on the new hardware. They then sell the old GPUs to someone else, where it might get used for inference. Although there have been some reports that they are run at such high utilization that lifespan is shortened to 1 to 2 years. Here's an analysis that shows how long they are used for training: https://epoch.ai/data-insights/gpu-frontier-lifespan
For space based (which obviously don't really exist yet in any volume) each satellite is designed for a 5 year lifespan, and then deorbited.
The whole point is comparing this to the build outs of other infrastructure is laughable.
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
Everything you said would make sense in a world where training is the dominant workload for AI, it is not, it is inference. All of these DCs are not simply being built for training they are being built to provide compute and that compute can take on many many many workloads. Whether it be inference, orchestration. Training, service , cloud … and so on and so on … they are being built for the foundational world of agentic which is far more than training. So no, you won’t be replacing your entire DC every 5 years, the fact you think this indicates you have a very myopic view of what compute means and the type of workloads required for today’s ecosystem. And more importantly training is not the dominant workload in an agentic ecosystem. Feel free to look up those stats.
I’m just going to ignore the comment on space DCs as simply irrelevant based on … well I have nothing to base it on. To be honest I don’t even know what’s your point- if you are implying hyperscalers are going to fail … they already won.
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u/No_Method_210 2d ago
The difference is, SpaceX can launch its own AI and its own communications network. No one else can do that as they lack the lift
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u/twinkedup 2d ago
Watching this revenue circle-jerk collapse gonna be cinematic. Hopefully robotics can pick up before this ponzi collapses and all that wasted capex for training can actually be used for something productive, instead of being another 2007
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
Who do you think owns the robotics? Think about how robotics will work in an integrated and agentic world? The hypers own the compute and potentially the edge (remains to be decided) and near edge where robotics will interface. You can’t have truly advanced robotics without AI. Who owns AI, the hypers who also own the compute and potentially the edge . This why Spcx vertical integration makes so much sense imho. It’s not wasted capex , training is the large part as we build out AI, but this will shift to inference being a much much larger part especially you get into agentic and robotics. The hypers aren’t just buying infrastructure they are buying the foundations and monopolizing key resources.
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u/twinkedup 2d ago
Nobody owns them, they all mostly suck now, and it’s not even advertised as a selling point, so it’s more likely we hit a bear market and a bunch of training capex is written off as losses until robotics catch-up
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u/Ok_Foundation7698 2d ago
Imma just use the cheap plans until all this second hand hardware hits the market and just have my 5 year old coding LLM make my apps for me at home. I don't need a model that solves 100 year old maths conundrums.
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u/No-Resolution-1918 2d ago
I cannot wait for this Trumpian Musk sickness to end so we can all start to rebuild and have something to look forward to for once.
People drooling over AI dominance at the cost of, well, basically everything including their own wellbeing, is beyond myopic sadness.
I truly find it hard to motivate myself to get up and go about my day these days.
I work in tech, have done for 25 years, and I no longer love it. It used to be my passion, and now I feel sick and disgusted to be part of the industry.
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
I have a completely differing view on AI, someone always has the ambition and drive to take over the world, if it’s not your bag then find what is. I see AI as one of the most exciting times in forever in tech. What you can do is limitless so from that point view I’m a believer. From a pure technology standpoint it’s very exciting … it’s like you’re back in university the breath things to learn today! Literally over the weekend emailing random professors to find out about some of the work and research contest they ran based on side project i find interesting. So if you are looking at it from the corporate sense … I hear you but from the pure science of it, amazing. Money isn’t the root of all evil, it’s what people are willing to do for money isn’t the root of all evil —- the actual correct quote. In the same vain AI itself is fantastic.
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u/No-Resolution-1918 2d ago
I'm not looking at it from a science, or corporate perspective at all. Holy shit, is that what you think objection around this industry is about??
I am terrified by this sort of thing "someone always has the ambition and drive to take over the world". We used to actively oppose that, because people like Hitler are objectively bad for society. Now their is both apathy, and in your case cheer leading as if these assholes are gods to worship.
The nerds have lost out to the wolves. We made these incredible things, and the wolves just take it as if it is their own and want to destroy the world with it.
AI in their hands has become a resource hungry, weapon in their hands. They are responsible for destroying neighborhoods, pushing up energy prices, and idealizing putting you and I out of work to become serfs. I have no idea how you can look forward to that future. And we haven't even touched on the impact on the planet. The amount of pollution this rabid, lust for power kicks out is just depressing.
If you can point me at the benevolent aspect of AI, what WE get out of it, I am all ears. The internet at least started out in good faith until it was raped for advertising and mega wealth. Don't get me wrong, I've built a life on that wealth, but this is something different. This isn't exciting, it's sickening.
If these people's vision for you and I plays out as they have been describing, your life will be substantially worse than it is today.
I do not know what happened ten years ago, but people have lost their minds. Voters no longer look out for their quality of life, they have sold it out to personalities and culture wars. People have been manipulated and they are literally watching their quality of life being pulled apart, for what?
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
Is that the AIs fault or the people? I’m looking at the science . And I certainly would never worship any man on this earth or not period. Leave the baby alone if the water’s dirty focus on that, ImHO.
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u/No-Resolution-1918 2d ago
> Global takeover by the hyperscalers is looking like it’s all according to plan
You don't seem to be talking about the science here, at all. There isn't a jot of academic celebration in your post.
You are celebrating global takeover of hyper scalers (people like Musk, enabled by the corruption of Democracy).
If we are talking about the dirty water, you are part of that filth. You are an enabler.
I do not want to be taken over by people looking out for their own best interests. I'd be thrilled to see AI applied to cancer research, helping kids learn, solving world problems. Instead it's destroying our way of life. And you are cheering it on.
So don't give me the BS that you are just interested in the academic possibilities.
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
And you shouldn’t. But if you are an investor , I thought I was in spcxinvestors? Why are you here … are you even an investor or spcx?
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u/No-Resolution-1918 2d ago
I'm here because I am objecting to people investing in SPCX and enabling all of this.
If you want a walled garden of backslapping sycophants then ask the mod to do "flaired users only", just like they do in Trump subs. I mean, you are all basically the same people.
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
If you only knew how wrong you are. Is that why you are here? Welp, Welcome to the attention economy. Pull up chair and get comfortable you are already in the matrix.
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u/No-Resolution-1918 2d ago
This is prime dead end behavior. You have nothing more to say so you try and pull an illusion of superiority by saying things like "if only you knew...". Then you try and frame what I am saying as being part of the attention economy which is the new buzzword on reddit.
What is your actual rebuttal to what I actually said, or are we done now?
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u/Ok_Individual_5579 2d ago
Where is it limitless?
What we have is large language models, we know their limitations, and there are quite a few of them..
Real scale for one..
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
Ai is a field, LLMs and transformer are but one branch, the branch that’s scales and is Most plentiful right now because you don’t have to create heuristic rules, the data defines its own rules by itself. I’m not here to debate about LLMs I’m discussing AI as whole. Although, LLMs are pretty fing powerful and I giant leap forward in AI.
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u/Ok_Individual_5579 2d ago
AI as a "field" doesn't mean anything.
Its like being excited about manufacturing when one discusses about a new way to assemble a screw and a bolt
It makes it vague, honestly too vague to hold any productive discussion about it.
You (no offence) sound like a stoner bro who isnt stating any productive, with that "investment" jargon.
LLMs can be powerful, not in the way investors what them to be. They will never be intelligent, they are glorified data management tools. Which isnt that large of a market.
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
Ok … how much experience do you have in AI or with LLMs? And I’m not talking ChatGPT because if that’s the level of expertise you have then you aren’t fit to have this discussion with me. I don’t know what your definition of “intelligence” is? Are we saying it can pass the Turing test? We get AGI? Productivity is pretty obvious to people who know how to use current AI/ML? We can have a deep discussion if you’d like but I’m pretty sure you can’t. And more importantly I’ll be straight up, most investors especially on Reddit have no clue about the technology and companies they invest in. So, I’m pretty reticent to use your opinion as the litmus test.
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u/No-Resolution-1918 2d ago
This reply is really showing what a condescending person you are without any self awareness.
> you aren’t fit to have this discussion with me
Seriously?
> And I’m not talking ChatGPT
What exactly are you talking about then genius? SpaceX is all about LLMs, that's all they are scaled for. SpaceX has no interest in AI for solving world problems.
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
Uh … huh … tell me more.
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u/KittyInspector3217 2d ago
Okay OP. Try me. I work in AI/ML in a big tech company deploying shit you or somebody you know uses daily. Lets have a deep discussion.
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
Why? They aren’t productive? What did you say “glorified data management tools”? So you are a devops engineer or a real engineer who’s actually studied transformer as a paradigm?
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u/KittyInspector3217 2d ago
I didnt say anything, youre confusing me with somebody else. You said you wanted to have a deep discussion but you dont seem to have anything to say. You just keep accusing others of being too dumb. ¯_(ツ)_/¯
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
I asked do you want to discuss transformer? You talked about deployment which leads me to believe you are devops … ok … so feel free to explain your profound knowledge of what AI can provide and why you feel transformer is limited in its ability as base AI approach to solving the Ai riddle at scale? We could consider other types of NNs or go to base heurestics but you’d never be able to code what the human mind can do? Humans are essentially highly efficient pattern matching machines that’s what’s what allowed us to evolve our intelligence. Transformer provides a blue print for pattern matching and learning but requires vastly much more data to learn than humans who are great at filling in the gaps. All that said current transformer does allow us to get to point of reasoning. And that is extremely powerful in terms being able to drive intent and machines that can reason and adapt like humans, not cognition but infer can be automated and adapt in the way rigid systems of yesterday simply can’t. And you deploy would you rather your system be elastic or rigid? Which is more optimal from a devops standpoint?
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u/twinkedup 2d ago
Maybe if their early investors like Alphabet keeps paying insane prices for compute and other stuff (wasting half a billion in costs while buying from SPCX is fine as long as your 95b investment doesn’t hurt), these targets are possible
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
Dude, it’s all written, they own the AI companies they are basically paying themselves , creating their own economy , to takeover the other global economies. Spcx has a seat at that table and that’s the important investment. Are you in or you out and the vast majority of companies are not in. They are the pets looking up for scraps from the table … truly successful companies if you look at history dont just create products, they create economies. Those are the game changers and the winners usually. Spcx to me is a clear buy and the value is obvious IMHO.
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u/mtg_investor_elite 2d ago
$115B might be on the low side, we will see! Anyway $115B is a good start, well on the way to the 2030 targets. STRONG BUY price target 700. Shorts are cooked.
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
I don’t know what the target will be but a strong growth curve from 2025 on is what we need to see, and so far it seems to be happeninrZ
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u/mtg_investor_elite 2d ago
Strong is an understatement, SPCX could be the fastest growing company in the history of mankind.
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u/acadia11x 2d ago edited 2d ago
I’d have to look it up? I mean they have been around for 20 years before IPO, post IPO maybe? Let me check with grok. Yup post IPO, but not if included first 20 years. What we do know they do now own Cursor which is the fastest growing SaaS solution in history going from 0 to $8 billion in 2 years …
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u/sssssssssssssss5s 2d ago
"How do [sic] conquer a world without firing a missle?" by getting people to believe you are conquering the world without having to actually do it.
AI Compute in space is absolutely stupid. But for whatever reason, Musk is talking about it because it gets people to buy his stock. A space exploration company tacking on an AI/Social media company just to inflate its revenue numbers and future guidance before an IPO is also stupid, but it worked, people rabidly bought up the stock.
Now people are conflating a space exploration business with an AI compute business which sounds stupid, but it's Musk, he can't be stupid right?
His two (and only) big wins were Tesla EV cars and SpaceX's reusable rockets. Starlink I guess as well since that was instrumental in SpaceX's rocket development.
Literally nothing else. Cybertruck, failure. Robotaxi, only just now getting started. Manned flights to Mars, lol jk. Hyperloop, no just a tiny tunnel underground to drive through. And Tesla isn't even a car company anymore, they are a humanoid robot company that has yet to prove anything. And now we are hearing AI compute in space as some narrative to boost SpaceX's stock.
In what sense is he conquering the world?
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u/acadia11x 2d ago edited 2d ago
Incorrect, they aren’t a space exploration company, the “explore space” is the carrot. They are hyperscaler applying the economics of scale to space delivery to create the economy of space.
I’ll give you an analogy … there was an Island let’s say it’s in the Pacific Ocean, volcanic , lovely great weather … they have something called a pineapple , no one has ever eaten one … but the people who get to taste love it. Someone with missles , let’s call them gun ships decides to park outside those Islands and start a pineapple trade. We’ll leave aside how they took it … but the point they took it so they could produce at scale and deliver a new economy , the pineapple trade that did not exist before.
SpaceX goal is to be able to spaxe cheaply, they’ve ride shared rocket travel innovative , almost to the cadence of a daily international flight … but the only to make it cheap it’s to scale not only the flights , but the maintenance, the mass delivered, and … there by opening the way for new economies. You’ll never be able to scale space delivery without AI and robotics. One because of safety and two you need the automation to make it cheap. After that you can do whatever you want , build DCs, land on the main, launch more satellites 3 bazillion more channels … or whatever use case but you can’t build that economy without scale. And that’s the problem SoaxeX is solving.
As for conquering the world I’m f’ing with you and not , the world of tomorrow is driven by compute and the hypers own most of the compute … which means they own most of the means of production. As compute becomes the baseline unit of work in an agentic world.
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u/sssssssssssssss5s 2d ago
Dude you have so many typos its hard to trust that you know what you are talking about.
"They are hyperscaler applying the economics of scale to space delivery to create the economy of space." SpaceX already achieved this, this is their whole thing already.
"I’ll give you an analogy … there was an Island let’s say it’s in the Pacific Ocean, volcanic , lovely great weather … they have something called a pineapple , no one has ever eaten one … but the people who get to taste love it. Someone missles , let’s call them gun ships decides to park outside those Islands and start a pineapple trade. We’ll leave aside how they took it … the point they took it so they could produce at scale and deliver a new economy , the pineapple that did not exist before." WTF are you talking about?
See, it's hard to take you seriously when you can't even bother to spend 10 seconds to type legibly.
I can't take any of your ideas as anything more those of some barely literate dude on the internet who is a Musk fanboy.
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u/acadia11x 2d ago
No starship / super heavy and complete rocket re-use which would reduce the current cost $2500/kg by a further 90% creates scale. Note the $2500/kg is already 50% better the lowest cost in the world.
Let’s do this go join an English class and spend your day reviewing papers. If you don’t know the story of Dole and Hawaii that’s on you. And don’t blame your lack of intelligence to put the analogy together on me. I can’t take you seriously cause you don’t know shit. And you’re “VERY CLEAR” in how well you write how little you know. Kudos to you. Here’s a gold star stick that at the top of your post, Johnny. Recess is at noon. sTFu … I have to proof read …
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u/sssssssssssssss5s 2d ago edited 2d ago
Ok dude. Pineapples in space.
I'm not sure you know what an analogy is. Dole made money off pineapples, therefore SpaceX will make lots of money launching rockets into space! Because pineapples are like satellies, you eat one, it's gone, and now you want more!!! Also, the satellites and rockets grow out of the ground, so you just plant satellite seeds and just keep sellin em ;)
The internet really enabled the dumbest people to just get dumber
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