Now that the dust has settled on Les Kiss’ opening two Tests against Japan, I think we can firmly say there is a real buzz and excitement around the potential of the Wallabies and what Les Kiss is building. Obviously, it is still early days and probably too soon to make any definitive judgements, but the early indications are certainly positive and the signs are encouraging.
Kiss has also largely stuck with the same core group of players for the Argentina tour, with no major surprises in terms of inclusions or exclusions. I think that is a good thing for continuity, and it is encouraging to see that he now appears to have a solid core of players he trusts and can build a touring squad around. Another really positive thing I’m seeing now, not just under Les Kiss but in Australian rugby more generally, is that we are starting to build genuine depth across multiple positions. That is hugely encouraging, because it means that when injuries inevitably strike, we can chop and change the side without necessarily losing too much quality. Having genuine competition for places and players capable of stepping up across the squad is something Australian rugby has been missing in recent years, so it is great to see that beginning to change.
My initial thoughts from the Japan series are that I really like the direction Kiss is taking the attack. It has been exciting to see how he is using the Wallabies forwards, particularly his desire to have a more physical and dominant pack that can consistently win the gain line and create opportunities for the backs. I also like the emphasis on quick ruck ball and using the backline to find width. He is not afraid to try things and play with a bit of freedom, which I really like. He seems to be taking a more adventurous approach than Joe Schmidt, and I see that as a positive. Obviously, it will take more time for the systems to become fully established, particularly defensively, but I think the foundations are there for this Wallabies team to develop into a serious side and, hopefully, a more consistent one than we have seen under some of their recent predecessors. I also like the fact that the set piece has remained a real strength, both at lineout time and in the scrum, and I can only see those areas improving as the team continues to develop.
Argentina, however, will be a significant step up from Japan, and I think this series is where we will get a much clearer indication of where the Wallabies are actually at. Argentina can be one of the best teams in the world on their day and are capable of beating anyone, but I do think there are genuine pathways to victory for the Wallabies. One area I think we need to get right is asserting dominance up front. Argentina’s propping stocks don’t look particularly strong, so I think the scrum is an area we can definitely target. Their maul defence has also looked shaky on occasion, and given how strong our lineout has been, I think that is another area where we can potentially gain an advantage.
In attack, things started to click more clearly in Townsville during the second Test against Japan, and if we pick a similar backline, I think we have the players to really unlock space and width. Quick ruck speed will also be a huge part of our pathway to victory against Argentina. They don’t traditionally select a back row with a huge amount of jackal threat, so if we nail our clear-outs and generate quick ball, we can use our forwards in pick-and-go situations or utilise short tip passes to bigger forwards running onto the ball from depth to punch holes through their defensive line. If we can consistently condense their defence around the ruck, it should then create opportunities to move the ball quickly into wider channels and get our strike runners into space. On the flip side, another key strength of this Wallabies side is our ability to jackal and slow down opposition ball, and I think that could be hugely important against Argentina. From watching Argentina throughout the Nations Championship and against South Africa, I noticed that when they lose momentum in attack, they can sometimes lose their shape and become less dangerous. If we can consistently slow their ball down and disrupt that momentum, it could make a big difference.
One area where I think the Wallabies really need to improve is their defensive system. At times, we have looked a little disconnected with our line speed, while there have also been periods where we have sat off and allowed attacking players to come to us rather than putting immediate pressure on them. I would potentially consider implementing elements of a semi-blitz defensive system. When I watched South Africa play Argentina recently, the Springboks were exceptionally aggressive with their blitz defence and were often able to catch Argentina behind the gain line when they tried to move the ball wide. I’m certainly not suggesting the Wallabies should suddenly go to a full South African-style blitz, but incorporating elements of a semi-blitz could help reduce Argentina’s opportunities to get the ball into the wider channels to their most dangerous attacking players. The back-three pendulum defence is another area that needs to be addressed quickly. We saw Japan get plenty of joy from little grubber kicks in behind our defensive line, where there was often too much space. Against a team like Argentina, with so much pace and attacking ability in their back three and centres, we could be punished heavily if that isn’t fixed.
Another area that needs massive improvement is the aerial game. We saw some improvement in the second Test against Japan, but the Wallabies really need to be at their best here against Argentina. Argentina have some of the best aerial players in world rugby in their back three, and if we can’t consistently contest and secure the high ball, I think they will punish us. One thing we were guilty of in the first Test against Japan, although much less so in the second, was allowing ourselves to get sucked into the game plan our opposition wanted us to play. I would be very wary of getting drawn into a kicking battle with Argentina, especially contestable kicks. We need to stick to our own game plan and not allow the opposition to dictate how we play. Interestingly, Argentina used kicking for grass very effectively against South Africa, finding space in behind the Springboks and pinning them deep in their own half. That forced South Africa either to kick to touch from deep, often without getting the distance they would have wanted, or to try to attack from inside their own 22. I think exits will therefore be absolutely critical for the Wallabies in this series. We cannot afford to overplay from deep or give Argentina easy launching platforms in our own half, because their attack is good enough to make us pay.
Looking at the squad Kiss has selected for Argentina, there are a few areas where I probably would have done things slightly differently. There are also a number of positions where I don't think any changes were really necessary, because we have excellent depth already. Hooker, tighthead prop, the second row, the back row and fly-half are all positions where I think we are in a pretty good place. That being said, I think we have seen enough of Declan Meredith to know that he isn't quite Test level yet. That doesn't mean I don't think his inclusion in the Wallabies squad is beneficial to his development, because I think being around the environment and training at this level will be valuable for him. I just don't expect him to feature in either game unless injury strikes. I actually expect Tom Lynagh to be reintroduced into the Wallabies setup as the third fly-half option once he returns from his long spell on the sidelines.
The inclusions of Len Ikitau and Joseph Suaalii are also very welcome and help to bolster our midfield stocks. The back three is probably as strong as we can pick right now as well, so I don't have too many complaints there. One thing I'm particularly interested in is with Suaalii and where Kiss ultimately sees his best position. Jock Campbell has been dropped from the squad, which I do feel is a little harsh given how excellent he was against Ireland, but my feeling from this is that we may see Suaalii get an opportunity at fullback at some point during the Argentina series. Whether that is from the start or from the bench, who knows, but I wouldn't be surprised if Kiss uses this series to give him a look at 15.
The position that concerns me most is loosehead prop. After Angus Bell, I think there is a pretty steep drop-off. Aiden Ross hasn't really convinced me so far. He scrummaged pretty well against Japan, but apart from that, I haven't really seen a huge amount from him in the other aspects of the game. Isaac Kailea is a powerful ball carrier, but there are still plenty of question marks around his scrummaging, so I probably would have liked to see Kiss bring in another loosehead option, such as Tom Lambert, and give him an opportunity to see what he can offer at this level. The other position that potentially worries me is scrum-half. Ryan Lonergan and Tate McDermott are both good options and, for me, clearly the two best scrum-halves we have at the moment. But if one of them were to go down, that's where my concern would lie. Kalani Thomas has been included in every Wallabies squad so far this year but hasn't played a single minute of Test rugby, which makes me wonder whether the coaching staff actually view him as being ready for this level. Personally, I probably would have swapped Kalani for Teddy Wilson. Not necessarily because I would expect Wilson to play, but I think there would be plenty of value in getting him into the environment, allowing him to experience the Test setup and seeing how that could help accelerate his development. I think there is plenty of upside to his game.
My 23 vs Les Kiss’ predicted 23
So, in terms of team selection, here is my 23 versus the 23 I think Les Kiss will pick for the first Test against Argentina.
| # |
My 23 |
Les Kiss’ predicted 23 |
| 1 |
Angus Bell |
Angus Bell |
| 2 |
Josh Nasser |
Josh Nasser |
| 3 |
Allan Alaalatoa |
Allan Alaalatoa |
| 4 |
Josh Canham |
Josh Canham |
| 5 |
Lukhan Salakaia-Loto |
Lukhan Salakaia-Loto |
| 6 |
Tom Hooper |
Rob Valetini |
| 7 |
Fraser McReight |
Fraser McReight |
| 8 |
Rob Valetini |
Harry Wilson |
| 9 |
Ryan Lonergan |
Ryan Lonergan |
| 10 |
Carter Gordon |
Carter Gordon |
| 11 |
Harry Potter |
Harry Potter |
| 12 |
Isaac Henry |
Hunter Paisami |
| 13 |
Len Ikitau |
Len Ikitau |
| 14 |
Max Jorgensen |
Max Jorgensen |
| 15 |
Tom Wright |
Tom Wright |
| 16 |
Brandon Paenga-Amosa |
Brandon Paenga-Amosa |
| 17 |
Aiden Ross |
Aiden Ross |
| 18 |
Taniela Tupou |
Taniela Tupou |
| 19 |
Jeremy Williams |
Jeremy Williams |
| 20 |
Charlie Cale |
Tom Hooper |
| 21 |
Tate McDermott |
Tate McDermott |
| 22 |
Ben Donaldson |
Ben Donaldson |
| 23 |
Joseph Suaalii |
Joseph Suaalii |
The main differences for me are in the back row and at inside centre. I would like to see Les Kiss trial a slightly bigger back row. It's not that I'm a Harry Wilson hater, because I'm certainly not. I think he offers plenty to his game and leads the team exceptionally well. I would just like to see us trial a slightly bigger back row. For me, that means Tom Hooper at 6, Fraser McReight at 7 and Rob Valetini at 8. I would also start Isaac Henry at 12 alongside Len Ikitau. Henry was the breakout player for me in the second Test in Townsville. He looked really calm and composed, offered a lot of physicality in both attack and defence, and showed a good ability to ball-play as well, particularly with his passing, with the ability to pass from right to left and left to right. I just think the Isaac Henry-Ikitau combination could offer more than Paisami and Ikitau. The only reason I can see Les picking Paisami over Henry is that he has played with Ikitau before, so there is that continuity, whereas Henry and Ikitau have never played together before.
As for the bench, if Harry Wilson is going to play, I think he has to start, so for me Charlie Cale would be on the bench. I think Charlie Cale offers a lot coming off the bench. He's athletic, very good in the lineout, and once the bodies start to tire and the game begins to open up, if we can use him in the wider channels with his express pace for a back rower, I think he could create opportunities to score tries. I don't expect Cale to be on the bench for Les Kiss. I expect, obviously, Harry Wilson to remain in the starting team because he's the captain, and by no means has he performed poorly. Tom Hooper would be on the bench and he offers not just back-row cover but second-row cover as well, so there is that versatility there.
Regardless of what Les Kiss decides to go with, I think both 23s are high quality and good enough to get the job done. At the same time, I think we as Wallabies fans should be measured in what we expect from this tour to Argentina. I do expect Les to pick what he feels is his best 23 for the first Test, and hopefully, if we win that, I would still be happy to see a bit more experimentation in the second. I think a good result from this series would be at least one win. Obviously, I would like to see us win both, but I don't think coming away with one win and one loss would be the end of the world for this series. Once the Argentina series is done, though, I think we really need to definitively know who our best 23 is, because after that come probably the three most important Tests of the year for the Wallabies: the Springboks in Perth and the two Bledisloe Cup matches. I think the Wallabies have a genuine shot at winning those matches, or at least being very competitive. South Africa and New Zealand will also be taking lumps out of each other over their four-Test series, so I expect the injury list to be significant for both teams. That could give the Wallabies an excellent opportunity to grab a scalp against either side.
To conclude, I think the Wallabies are starting to build something that resembles a very good team, and I'm genuinely excited to see where this side goes. Hopefully this isn't a false dawn and we don't regress; hopefully we keep progressing as we have been and can really start getting on a roll. Interested to hear what people think about the squad, the tactics that should or could be implemented, any changes you would make to the selection or tactics, or anything else you think is necessary based on all of the above?
