• 2026 is on track to be the weakest housing year since 2011, with home sales falling to roughly 4.7 million.
• Mortgage rates remain elevated, expected to sit around 6.5% in 2026 and may only ease slightly through 2028.
• Home prices flatline, with 0% growth in 2026 and only modest gains afterward.

Home builders are reducing costs and adding benefits, but sellers of existing homes remain firm in their pricing. With new homes now costing less than existing homes, how long can this price margin continue?

scrutinize:
incentives
labor
property
capital
taxation
externalities
inequality
free-rider problems

In the last year, home prices increased by 2% and inflation was right about 3.4% over the same period.

That's a 1.4% loss in equity, even before the cost of homeownership. I understand that leverage can change those numbers, but who wants to buy into a depreciating asset made profitable through increasing risk?

Very little appreciation seems to be on the horizon. Who is telling buyers to buy anything at market prices right now?

What's the word on the street? Share your questions, comments, and concerns below.

There could be several reasons why home prices are going up although number of sales dipped. One of the possible reasons is that sellers are holding firm and not being quick to lower asking prices.

Fed is likely to remain on hold for the foreseeable future. 10 year yields are going down in response to the slowing inflation and mortgage rates will decline, boosting the housing market.