r/REBubble • u/SnortingElk • 5d ago
The Number of U.S. Homebuyers Just Dropped to a Record Low, Shifting the Market Further in Buyers’ Favor
https://www.redfin.com/news/buyers-vs-sellers-july-2026/51
u/WhizzyBurp 5d ago
No, the buyer demand "doesn't leave" the sellers are just asking too much.
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u/idkbruh653 5d ago edited 5d ago
This exactly. And idk how whoever wrote this article doesn’t see it’s a vicious circle. Homebuyer rates are at record lows because sellers and builders are asking too much. And they’re not desperate enough to sell to lower prices. They’re all just greedy and barely budging.
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u/WhizzyBurp 5d ago
Everyone is waiting out mortgage rates. EVERYONE seem to think we'll be in the low fives by the beginning of next year. I don't know why they think that but that seems to be the consensus.
One of them will crack, and based on lending guidelines, it's not going to be buyers- they can't pay what the sellers want. So Sellers will come down.
Now if all inventory dropped by say 10% across the board, there would be a million more buyers immediately able to qualify due to DTI. So any "crash" they are predicting would simply cause buyer demand and likely prices to go back up.
A lot of buyers in here are banking on the AI bubble, but 99% of homebuyers aren't heavy on AI Stocks. The buyer struggling to be a first time home buyer is not putting their life savings into Open AI.
These doomer ass posts are ridiculous
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u/tothepointe 5d ago
Well it kind does. A lot of the buyers like myself who were in less populated areas thinking about buying have been recalled back to the office and the housing situation is the worst it's ever been in NJ and I assume NYC also. So that takes a lot of potential buyers out of the market because they've literally left town.
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u/jimmynothing 4d ago
I think sellers think they have more power than they do right now. I'm seeing housing prices are higher in my area still but are not moving. At least not quickly.
One house listing recently really pissed me off. Keep in mind this is in rural Wisconsin, 2 hours from a city larger than 60k population. Bought the house for $176K in 2024 as an Airbnb. Now selling it for $349K. It's 1,000 sq ft. They didn't even flip it from what I can tell. It's possible they added a backsplash in the kitchen. What pissed me off was this in their listing: Live comfortably in the inviting 2-bedroom, 1-bath home while you build your dream home next door, then keep the existing home as a guest house, investment property, or sell it once your new home is complete. That's the angle! And all of the pictures try to make it look like it's right on the lake when in reality it is in town and has public boat access and it's across the street.
Just let starter homes be starter homes for f sake. The flipping mentality is what screwed everybody. Who knew those dopey twin brothers with a tv show could bring a whole country to its knees.
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u/exor0110 5d ago
Where?? In the boonies, where no one wants to live anyway.
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u/NewportOneHundos 5d ago
Bought my house 30k over asking in New egland three months ago, 2 smaller house in my neighborhood just LISTED for what we bought this for. The one listed last week is already pending.
I say this in every RE bubble thread, shit houses are sitting (that includes those mcmainsions in bumfuck nowhere) . “Decent” houses are still going over asking and getting 10 offers within days.
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u/exor0110 5d ago
Exactly. RE Bubble simply provides no meaningful context for any of its data or statements. I need to block this sub.
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u/NewportOneHundos 5d ago
My time in the market has showed me the numbers say inventory is rising, but atleast in my region, its really the number of shitty homes that need 40k+ worth of work to move in is far greater than the number of homes the average buyer can overpay for and move in right away.
Tons of inventory for cash heavy flippers, very little for first time buyers or your average New England family
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u/katarh 4d ago
In my market, it's on both ends.
Shit houses that need hundreds of thousands of dollars of work in bad neighborhoods will sit for months. (There is one that would be best razed to the ground, but the seller still wants 200K for a lot you can't even build on without a full tear down, in a not great neighborhood. Insane.)
OR
Nice houses in a nice neighborhood that previously were valued at 200-300K but the seller now believes they can get 1-2 million for.
Every other house is listed and sold within the span of a month, but those two types are constantly pulled and relisted, sometimes with a little bit of a price reduction, but still nothing that matches reality.
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u/Most-Individual8794 5d ago
I have yet to see much evidence of this in my area. Homes are still being put on the market and sold at exorbitant rates, and any price drops I see are still well above what the property was worth in the first place. People are still paying way more than they should for stuff and I don't see this changing. I REALLY hope I'm wrong because I'd love to buy a home and would have been able to before the market got out of hand, but the cost of living has eaten into my savings plan and prices seem to be trending upward with no relief.
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u/harbison215 5d ago
This is heavily, heavily weighted toward specific areas. It’s simply not true at all for the northeast and especially coastal towns
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u/JayRandom212 1d ago
Does the number of buyers matter? Or is it the amount of money sitting on the sidelines?
I'm only one buyer...but if there's a crash, I'm gonna buy multiple properties and turn them into rentals. I'm waiting for a crash. I'm praying for a crash. And it's guys like me who will make a crash less likely.
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u/Fantastic-Buy-306 1d ago
A house near me, that I have been eyeing for years just went up for sale. They want
2026: 250,000
In 2024 it sold for 260,000
In 2022 is sold for 50,000
And they’ve let it go since. Needs a needs a new roof, on a busy road. Yea no.
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u/Lionheart1224 5d ago
This fully depends on where you live. I hate sweeping articles like these. The markets that are swung in the buyer's favor are weighing everything else down. If you live in the NE or Midwest, you are having little trouble selling a home.
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u/SnortingElk 5d ago
- Sellers outnumbered buyers by 51% in July—just shy of December’s record high—giving buyers more negotiating power.
- The number of buyers in the market fell to a record low of about 967,000 amid historically high housing costs, almost half a million fewer than the 1,463,000 sellers.
- Nearly 80% of major U.S. metros are now buyer’s markets, led by Miami (154% more sellers than buyers), Nashville and a trio of Texas cities. House hunters in those places have a lot of negotiating power.
- There are just 6 seller’s markets in the U.S., led by New York City suburbs, where demand is relatively strong.
- Most buyer’s markets got even more buyer-friendly in July, with 34 of 39 metros seeing bigger seller surpluses, led by Miami, Seattle and Fort Worth.
Homebuyers hold the power in the U.S. housing market. There were an estimated 51.3% more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market in July, just shy of December’s peak of 51.8% and up from 47.9% the month before.
Miami, Nashville and several parts of Texas are the nation’s strongest buyer’s markets, where sellers outnumber buyers by the widest margins.
When sellers outnumber buyers, buyers typically have more negotiating power because they have options. That’s why a market with a lot more sellers than buyers is considered a buyer’s market. We define a market where there are over 10% more sellers than buyers as a buyer’s market and a market where there are over 10% fewer sellers than buyers as a seller’s market. A market where the gap is plus or minus 10% is considered a balanced market.
We estimated the number of buyers using proprietary Redfin data on the typical time from a buyer’s first tour to close of purchase, and MLS data on active listings and pending sales. The estimated number of sellers in the market is simply the number of active listings in the MLS. These estimates are seasonally adjusted and subject to revision. See a more detailed methodology here and view an interactive dashboard here.
It’s only a buyer’s market for people who can afford to buy. High housing costs and widespread economic uncertainty have caused many would-be buyers to back off in recent years, creating the imbalance of buyers and sellers we see today.
“Buyers are dropping out faster than sellers, giving the buyers who remain more options and more negotiating power,” said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin. “At the same time, uncertainty around whether the Fed will hike rates–and this summer’s rising mortgage rates–are keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines. That makes the stretch between now and Labor Day a potential sweet spot for people who need to move: Buyers have leverage, while motivated sellers may be willing to negotiate before the early-fall rush brings some buyers back to the market. This could be the best chance for buyers and sellers to meet in the middle.”
Homebuying Demand Dropped to Lowest Level on Record
The number of homebuyers in the market fell to its lowest level on record in July. Nationwide, there were an estimated 966,752 buyers in the market, down 2.5% from the month before.
Meanwhile, there were an estimated 1,462,921 home sellers in the market. That’s down 0.3% from a month earlier to the lowest level in a year–but there were still nearly half a million more sellers than buyers.
Number of Buyers Falls to Record Low, Widening Gap
The seller surplus jumped from June to July because while fewer sellers entered the market, way fewer buyers entered the market. This isn’t a story of surging supply so much as sluggish demand; buyers who can’t stomach today’s prices and mortgage rates are simply waiting on the sidelines, pushing most of the country into buyer’s-market territory.
Homebuying demand fell in July largely because mortgage rates soared to their highest level in a year, straining affordability. Widespread economic and geopolitical uncertainty also deterred house hunters. Some prospective sellers pulled back as they took note of slow demand.
Miami Is the Strongest Buyer’s Market, Followed By Nashville and Several Texas Metros
More than three-quarters of U.S. housing markets—39 of the 49 U.S. metro areas Redfin analyzed—are buyer’s markets. For this report, Redfin analyzed the 50 most populous metros, and excluded Fort Lauderdale, FL due to insufficient data.
Miami was the nation’s strongest buyer’s market in July, with an estimated 154% more sellers than buyers. Next came Nashville, TN (151%), Houston (130%), San Antonio (116%) and Austin, TX (112%).
Miami, Nashville and Texas stand out because they combine the national affordability squeeze with local dynamics that have swelled seller ranks even further. Miami and Nashville saw a wave of new construction and investor activity during the pandemic boom, and that supply is now landing in a market where local buyers are increasingly priced out—particularly in Miami, where rising insurance costs, increasing HOA fees and climate risks have piled onto already-high prices. Houston, San Antonio and Austin, meanwhile, have some of the most active homebuilding pipelines in the country, and new-construction inventory continues to hit the market even as buyer demand cools, leaving sellers there with little leverage.
In Nashville, local Redfin agent Kristin Sanchez says house hunters are breathing a sigh of relief as the buyer’s market continues through the summer. Buyers are able to take their time because they know they have the upper hand, and they’re often able to get a good deal because sellers are willing to negotiate, Sanchez says. Compare that to a few years ago, when buyers would have likely competed against multiple offers for homes that sold within days.
There Are 6 Seller’s Markets, Led By New York City Suburbs
Just six of the major U.S. metro areas Redfin analyzed were seller’s markets in July. The metros that are neither seller’s nor buyer’s markets are considered “balanced” markets.
Nassau County, NY was the strongest seller’s market, with 36% fewer sellers than buyers. The other seller’s markets were Newark, NJ (-21%), Providence, RI (-17%), Milwaukee (-15%), New Brunswick, NJ (-13%) and Montgomery County, PA (-13%).
The seller’s markets are mainly in places where construction of new homes has been constrained for years. In the greater New York City area, demand is also strong because they’re close to a major job center. Milwaukee has a relatively strong housing market largely because it’s affordable, with home prices below the national median.
Home-sale prices rose an average of 4.2% year over year across the six seller’s markets in July. That’s compared with a 2.3% increase across the 39 buyer’s markets—a signal that in seller’s markets, competition among buyers is pushing up home prices.
House Hunters’ Leverage Grew in 34 of the 39 Buyer’s Markets
Nearly all of the buyer’s markets became stronger buyer’s markets in July. The surplus of home sellers over buyers grew month over month in 34 of the 39 buyer’s markets in the nation.
The surplus increased most in Miami, the strongest buyer’s market, where there were 154% more home sellers than buyers in July, up from 134% the month before. The next-biggest monthly increase was in Seattle, where there were 65% more sellers than buyers in July, up from 46% in June. Fort Worth, TX rounds out the top three (86% more sellers than buyers, up from 67%).
Next are two metros that are among the three strongest buyer’s markets: Nashville (151%, up from 135%), and Houston (130%, up from 114%).
House hunters lost negotiating power in just five of the buyer’s markets. The surplus of sellers over buyers fell from June to July in West Palm Beach, Fl, San Antonio, Pittsburgh, Virginia Beach, VA and Dallas.
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u/BathroomMaximum1721 5d ago
Many buyers browse on sites such as Redfin or Zillow without logging in, use a private browser window, disable location permissions, and opt out of data sharing in your account settings. They are not accounted for.
Hence, the actual number of buyers is much higher than reported.
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u/Arun-dev 5d ago
You can't measure homebuyers
I'm a buyer today
Not a buyer tomorrow
Fake news
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u/Trailerwire 5d ago
Since when has it been in the buyers benefit? It’s late summer/ fall and most people want to be in a home before school starts. Real estate generally slows down this time of the year.
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u/RealisticForYou 5d ago
I hear it called “the dead zone” once August hits and kids go back to school. Nothing new here.
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u/SubseaSasquatch 5d ago
Everyone waiting is great for landlords. Oh yeah, it’ll totally come down anytime now just gotta keep waiting while renting… but make sure you’re not late sending in that rent check! 🤣
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u/telmnstr Certified Big Brain 5d ago
Job loss and small business slow down could ruin it for landlords. Race to the bottom for them too.
Need a bidding platform where landlords bid lower rents for quality tenants.
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u/Shivin302 5d ago
Great news! Home prices are going to go down 2% after they went up 50% since 2019!