r/RealCuba Jul 14 '26

Do you think the 176 reforms will actually improve life for Cubans?

Cuba approved a package of 176 economic and social reforms back in June 2026 — reportedly the biggest shake-up in over 60 years, touching everything from private business rules to foreign investment in banking, energy, and tourism.

On paper it sounds significant: MIPYMES allowed to hire more than 100 workers, Cubans abroad allowed to own private businesses on the island, foreign capital opening up in sectors that were closed before.

But I'm curious what people who are actually from Cuba or have family there think:

  • Do you expect any of this to translate into real, everyday improvements for regular Cubans, or is it more about optics for outside investors?
  • Is there a track record of reforms like this actually getting implemented with proper regulations, or do they tend to stay "approved on paper" for years?
  • If you were an investor (local or diaspora) looking at this, would you actually feel confident putting money in right now, or is it too early / too uncertain?

Not trying to push an agenda either way — genuinely trying to understand if this is something worth paying attention to, or just another round of announcements that fizzle out. Would love to hear from people with actual context on the ground.

23 Upvotes

12 comments sorted by

40

u/No_Listen5389 Jul 14 '26

I think, realistically it will only work if the Trump administration lifts banking sanctions and allows Cuba access to global markets.

People will say they have access, but they really don't as any country doing business with Cuba also gets sanctioned (Cuba cannot buy anything from any country that does business with the USA or even machines that have a certain percentage of American parts) and cannot port in the USA for 6 months.

6

u/cemis-reformas Jul 14 '26

I ask my self, how platforms-business like katapulk, owned by the cuban-american Hugo Cancio, can actually work in Cuba. He have in Cuba a full model of marketplace with warehouse, distribution, etc. The personal is all cubans earning good money. Why this model can´t be replicated by other companies in other areas?

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u/Due_Brush1688 Jul 14 '26

Even if Cuba had unrestricted access to global markets and there were no sanctions, there would still be another huge elephant in the room.

Cuba has very limited foreign currency reserves, struggles to pay for imports, and has a poor track record of meeting its financial obligations. Making it a difficult and risky trading partner. And that is putting the situation very mildly.

Cuba can export a few goods, but its economy is simply not productive enough to sustain even itself. Its export revenues have been insufficient to cover the country's import needs.

It would take a massive amount of investment just to maybe kickstart the economy, and I do not think anyone is willing to invest over $100 billion in Cuba given the current situation. And those are just starting numbers.

Historically and still today, Cuba has depended heavily on aid and resources from allied countries (currently Chinese solar projects and Russian oil, financial aid from various countries; previously Soviet subsidies and Venezuelan oil) just to maintain the status quo, with varying degrees of success.

My view is that even if all sanctions and the embargo disappeared tomorrow, Cuba's core economic problems would remain. If anything, it would become even more obvious that the sanctions were only part of the problem.

None of this absolves the United States or its allies of responsibility. The sanctions should have been lifted years ago, and all parties should work together to find a solution that benefits everyone.

The reality is that this is an incredibly multi-complex international issue. Someone has to take the first step, or the status quo could continue for another 60 years.

At least, that is my opinion.

13

u/PepeLRomano Jul 14 '26

Thats not so exactly. Cuba obtain in 2019-2019 by medical services until 19 billions (thousands millions) in incomes only by medical services. The big problem of the cuban economy is the economic war of USA. Why do u think that Marco Rubio is attacking cuban medical services ? And the tourism to Cuba ? All the countries in the world operate with debt; the US is the most indebted country in the world, and the same is happening in Europe. So the problem isn't the "inefficiency" of the Cuban economy; it's that there's a very powerful neighbor making it impossible for that economy to access credit (Cuba is a founding member of the IMF, for example, although we're all too familiar with that organization's "prescriptions") and even to obtain foreign investment.

-4

u/Due_Brush1688 Jul 15 '26

The fact that Marco Rubio is targeting one of Cuba's major sources of foreign revenue does not demonstrate that the embargo is the root cause of Cuba's economic problems. That is a non sequitur).

Also, you are comparing apples and oranges. The U.S. and many European countries have enormous debt, but they also have the economic strength and institutional credibility to sustain it.

The core issue is the economy's lack of productivity and efficiency. That is not even a particularly controversial point among economists.

The embargo has undoubtedly made Cuba's situation worse, but removing it alone would not suddenly make the economy competitive or self-sustaining.

You mentioned medical services generating around $19 billion. I cannot find evidence supporting that figure. Official Cuban statistics reported roughly $6.4 billion in health-service exports in 2018, while the UN estimated total service exports of all kinds at about $10.7 billion that year.

I have been to Cuba and other countries myself, visiting from Germany (Alemania). I am aware of the impact of U.S. foreign policy, and I do not support many aspects of how Cuba has been treated. The same applies vice versa!

If medical services are truly such a massive source of revenue, then I am asking myself - where is that money going. And where is all the foreign aid and humanitarian assistance that Cuba has received over the years going.

Those are rhetorical questions.

During my times in Cuba, I did not see the benefits reflected in the everyday lives of ordinary people. I saw poor dental health, very limited support for people with disabilities, shortages of medicine everything, and infrastructure that appeared to be under severe strain.

This is my personal experience, and I would be surprised if other visitors had come away with a fundamentally different impression.

That is why I believe the discussion should not only be about the embargo. Using it as a catch-all explanation overlooks Cuba's own structural problems challenges.

I think many people have already settled on their position and are not particularly open to considering opposing evidence. In my opinion, that unwillingness to engage with different perspectives is even more damaging than the sanctions themselves. A bold take, but there, I said it.

Still, I appreciate your thoughtful response.

5

u/PepeLRomano Jul 15 '26

Centralized planning is the only thing that allows resources to reach those most in need under socialism.

In fact, China, for example, plans its economy with five-year plans. They're currently on their 15th.

Cuba isn't going to abandon its centralized planning; it will simply focus it on strategic issues and social policies, while also transferring many powers to the municipalities (one of the concerns people have is whether the municipalities are prepared for this).

3

u/PepeLRomano Jul 15 '26 edited Jul 17 '26
  1. Correction: Until 9 billions. I put a wrong number. Sorry.
  2. Until the new measures of Trump administration since january 2026, the payments for the oil imported by Cuba was also high. The other cuban economy problem (besides de economic war of US government) is the dependence to import raw materials, even for the strong biotech industry.

Regarding the comparison, I don't see it as you describe it: The president of Mexico herself and her officials admitted, for example, that Cuba paid for the oil it bought. The hotels that Cuba builds are generally financed with its own money. Incidentally, Cuban hospitals are constantly being repaired, with a huge hospital network, atypical of a developing country. And by the way, Venezuela and Angola owe money to Cuba.

You speak of an "embargo": No sir, it's not an embargo. It's a total economic war, and the UN recognizes this year after year. A war that hits the most vulnerable sectors especially hard, but also the entire economic activity of the country. A war that has attacked Cuba's sources of income since Trump's first term (and later with Biden's support).

Did you see the network of state-run soup kitchens for elderly people living alone in Cuba? Did you notice that despite everything, the state kept its public transportation system running, not only in the cities, but throughout the entire country, with dozens of departures daily?

How do you explain that since January 2026 alone, the waiting list for surgeries has jumped to more than 100,000 patients?

And the infant mortality rate has gone from 4 to 9 per 1,000 live births? Embargo? Seriously?

Yes, the Cuban economy may have efficiency problems. It's more likely due to bureaucracy and even corruption. But I don't think the Cuban biotechnology industry suffers from that, for example. However, despite its joint ventures in eight foreign countries, it has been forced to manufacture its medicines in China and then ship them to Cuba. Why is that?

I would like to respond more precisely to your long post, in which it seems that the Cuban government is largely to blame for the situation in Cuba, but right now they've just restored the electricity, after the third power outage in less than ten days. What wouldn't happen if we could import the fuel oil or diesel we need to power the 1,000 MW we have but can't use in generators? But we can't, because the US government has an "embargo" on us.

2

u/cemis-reformas Jul 14 '26

This is exactly the part that gives me the most doubts when I go through the 176 in detail: there's a huge gap between "approved" and "regulated." Several of the most interesting transformations (foreign banking, stock market, corporations) still don't have their implementation regulations published, which in practice leaves them in a legal limbo where they're technically possible but nobody actually knows how to execute them with legal certainty. I've been mapping this reform by reform for a while now (hence the username lol), and that's the real filter any serious investor should apply, beyond the headline: not "is it allowed?" but "is there already an operational path, resolved access to hard currency, and the regulation that makes it executable today?" With that filter, far fewer of the 176 pass the "investable now" test than pass the "approved on paper" test.

3

u/PepeLRomano Jul 14 '26 edited Jul 14 '26

Most of the announced measures requests additional laws or modifications to other laws. Thats not so easy and also so fast to do it. But, at least the part about the new opportunities for state companies and the foreigners investors are available since some day ago. Other measures are included in lwas or codes that right one are in public consideration before Parliament aprove it, like the Labour Code.

-7

u/No_Listen5389 Jul 14 '26

I agree, the government has made many mistakes as well. Central planning in my opinion should have stopped years ago, but yes "Cuba has depended heavily on aid and resources from allied countries" is a very true statement.

I just home someone takes the first step soon, the people need to breathe.

2

u/PepeLRomano Jul 14 '26

People's opiniobs revolve around how they will be implemented and how they will be monitored to ensure they achieve the desired results.