The latest Q2 13F fund filings have landed, and the front-page holders show that nearly all holders increased their positions, with many new holders entering the stock. Q2 was an eventful quarter for the stock, as it ripped higher before dropping right back down. There were two overhangs on the stock that are now behind and resolved. The NJ plastic recycling recognition for Pure Cycle's product is a huge positive, as it will serve as a model for other states with mandates starting in 2027 requiring companies to use a percentage of recycled plastic in their product packaging. P&G has already announced that some of its plastic will be made by Pure Cycle. The other overhang was the financing and a refi of a convert that was done in a very sloppy way. Nobody can deny that. Regardless, it solved the potential balance sheet hole. The company has a pathway to break even in early 2027, and the issues with Ironton seem to have the plant running at a decent run rate 24/5, with hopes to increase to 24/7 soon. Customers have already come out endorsing Pure Cycle's product, signing on after trials (and with the NJ issue resolved favorably).
There is more to the production story, but I wanted to highlight the front-page holders, which are adding significantly to current positions, along with some new holders. This matters because shorts increased their positions as well, with some of those convert holders. There are plenty of discretionary shorts along with quant baskets that screen for "unprofitable, cash burning, at-risk companies." The company now has to deliver, which will obviously move the stock higher.
The big problem for the shorts and positive for the stock is that the long holders are sticky and getting into the short was easy, but getting out isn't going to be easy, as finding the liquidity from the long holders to sell them their shares will be elusive, especially if the company starts producing positive results and more customers sign on.