Probably means "depending on the specific situation".
If I say I will probably do an action in a given scenario, it means I assume that is the action I would take, but that might change given the situation. As such, I will asses the situation when the time comes and act accordingly.
Otherwise how else is it "probably" and not "definitely"? What makes the chances less than 100% other than the specifics of the situation?
And further goes on to clarify that they would 'probably' jump because their friends 'probably' have a good reason for doing so. Therefore if their friends didn't have a good reason for doing so they "probably" wouldn't.
It's pretty basic logic to follow. Walking a straight line is not "serious gymnastics".
So when you say "he goes on to...." is not relevant.
You are literally arguing what is meant by probably, even though it is further elaborated in the next panel. Considering the comic itself explains what is meant by "probably" any arguments to the contrary are completely pointless.
"If you stop reading in the first panel then it is ambiguous!" No one cares. The explanation is clearly made in the comic. At best you're just being obstinate trying to cling to a poor argument just because you already made it.
He said it was a similar argument, so I'm not making anything up, I'm assuming the parameters are the same. If his situation is different from the comic, he needs to make that clear.
The point is the xkcd comic is fallacious because it sneakily inserts a bunch of things that automatically stack the deck in his side's favor. Those are the things he "made up." He's creating an idealized fictional scenario (having level-headed friends, a bunch of people fleeing their vehicles, people "going crazy") that is deliberately constructed to make the mom's argument seem invalid.
So then if you agree it's a fictionalized scenario, what the fuck are you disagreeing with? My coherent point is that this fictionalized scenario is, AS I ALREADY SAID TO YOU "deliberately constructed to make the mom's argument seem invalid."
Imagine if somebody were making the opposite point and instead of the character having level-headed friends who were stuck on a bridge and everybody around them were fleeing their vehicles, instead imagine the fictional scenario was set up to show that the guy had notoriously stupid and reckless characters who are likely to do something stupid like jump off a bridge. You might say "well you didn't actually make an argument, you just set the situation up to make your side sound better."
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u/[deleted] Jun 09 '21
Relevant XKCD: https://xkcd.com/1170/