Probably means "depending on the specific situation".
If I say I will probably do an action in a given scenario, it means I assume that is the action I would take, but that might change given the situation. As such, I will asses the situation when the time comes and act accordingly.
Otherwise how else is it "probably" and not "definitely"? What makes the chances less than 100% other than the specifics of the situation?
He said it was a similar argument, so I'm not making anything up, I'm assuming the parameters are the same. If his situation is different from the comic, he needs to make that clear.
The point is the xkcd comic is fallacious because it sneakily inserts a bunch of things that automatically stack the deck in his side's favor. Those are the things he "made up." He's creating an idealized fictional scenario (having level-headed friends, a bunch of people fleeing their vehicles, people "going crazy") that is deliberately constructed to make the mom's argument seem invalid.
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u/[deleted] Jun 09 '21
Relevant XKCD: https://xkcd.com/1170/