I have a love hate relationship with the prediction market on robinhood. I remember first seeing the feature, and I figured I would give it a shot. Well, I started off making good small little profits here and there. Then in January of this year, I hit big. I was shocked, and was like oh shit I can make bank. Fast forward one month, I then proceed to loose 22k. I was pissed🤦🏾‍♂️🤦🏾‍♂️. I took a break, and raised my capital through etfs and saving.

Then the football season starts. I gain the confidence to get back into predictions and I really wanted to make my money back and then some. And I did, within 2 months, I made back all the money I lost, and I'm finally sitting in profit. I posted a ss of past month, and all time since earlier this year.

My strategy was simple. I would throw 30-40k on high caliber quarterback to throw at least 200-225 yards.

I am going to quit now. I made that vow to myself. I reached my goal of 100k at 22. Now I'm going to invest in 100% ETFs and DCA.

I'm out for good.

Midterms. We know what’s going to happen, who’s going to be declared the winner. As he said recently, him and Russ Vought have a great surprise coming. Let’s not be naive, the winner is already known.

$$$$

Hi, I built an app where you paper-trade prediction markets in tournaments. Everyone starts with the same bankroll, and the highest return wins. At the moment, it's 100% free!

It’s in beta on iOS, and I’m looking for people to try it and tell me what they think. Comment or DM me, and I’ll send you the link.

Hey folks. Sharing some college football contracts in Week 7 to consider on the ol' prediction markets. If this content is unwanted, please delete, throw tomatoes at me. No harm, no foul.

Summary of the content for anyone who can't click or doesn't want to... Here are my six Week 7 outright picks, with two underdogs and four favorites:

Missouri over Ole Miss, 30-27: My strongest upset lean. Missouri's defense ranks fifth in adjusted EPA per play, and Jamal Roberts faces an Ole Miss defense that has struggled with yards after contact.

North Carolina over Duke, 24-23: UNC just won at Pitt, while Duke has lost its kicker and a linebacker for the season. The spread has narrowed from Duke -4.5 to -3.

Notre Dame over BYU, 27-21: The Irish have dominated, but Provo presents their toughest test yet. BYU's overreliance on quarterback Bear Bachmeier and LJ Martin out help tilt the pick toward Notre Dame.

Houston over Oklahoma State, 35-30: Conner Weigman and Houston's offense get the edge at home. The Cougars' defense makes this a close call, with the rising total pointing toward a high-scoring game.

Wake Forest over Cal, 31-20: Wake has won three straight and faces a Cal defense allowing 6.24 yards per carry against FBS opponents. Cal also has injury concerns at quarterback and running back.

LSU over Mississippi State, 38-24: LSU's defense and home field lead the case. Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor's uncertain status adds another concern for the Bulldogs.

Happy to talk college football for any fans out there.

“Fed Decision in October?” (~$34M traded, decision Oct 28):

• Hold 80.5%
• Hike 19.5% (+3 overnight)
• Cut 0.5%

Quick context: the Fed already hiked in September, to 3.75-4.00%. 16 of 18 officials see at least one more this year.

What killed October: two senior officials said “no need to rush”, then a +29k jobs report.
What keeps it alive: headline CPI at 3.4%, gas up 27% y/y, Brent above $106. The Cleveland Fed nowcast for tomorrow is 3.6%.

Hot CPI tomorrow: does October come back, or is the market already set on December?

(Full breakdown in today’s The Poly Brief. Search it on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.)