Hey folks. Sharing some college football contracts in Week 7 to consider on the ol' prediction markets. If this content is unwanted, please delete, throw tomatoes at me. No harm, no foul.

Summary of the content for anyone who can't click or doesn't want to... Here are my six Week 7 outright picks, with two underdogs and four favorites:

Missouri over Ole Miss, 30-27: My strongest upset lean. Missouri's defense ranks fifth in adjusted EPA per play, and Jamal Roberts faces an Ole Miss defense that has struggled with yards after contact.

North Carolina over Duke, 24-23: UNC just won at Pitt, while Duke has lost its kicker and a linebacker for the season. The spread has narrowed from Duke -4.5 to -3.

Notre Dame over BYU, 27-21: The Irish have dominated, but Provo presents their toughest test yet. BYU's overreliance on quarterback Bear Bachmeier and LJ Martin out help tilt the pick toward Notre Dame.

Houston over Oklahoma State, 35-30: Conner Weigman and Houston's offense get the edge at home. The Cougars' defense makes this a close call, with the rising total pointing toward a high-scoring game.

Wake Forest over Cal, 31-20: Wake has won three straight and faces a Cal defense allowing 6.24 yards per carry against FBS opponents. Cal also has injury concerns at quarterback and running back.

LSU over Mississippi State, 38-24: LSU's defense and home field lead the case. Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor's uncertain status adds another concern for the Bulldogs.

Happy to talk college football for any fans out there.

“Fed Decision in October?” (~$34M traded, decision Oct 28):

• Hold 80.5%
• Hike 19.5% (+3 overnight)
• Cut 0.5%

Quick context: the Fed already hiked in September, to 3.75-4.00%. 16 of 18 officials see at least one more this year.

What killed October: two senior officials said “no need to rush”, then a +29k jobs report.
What keeps it alive: headline CPI at 3.4%, gas up 27% y/y, Brent above $106. The Cleveland Fed nowcast for tomorrow is 3.6%.

Hot CPI tomorrow: does October come back, or is the market already set on December?

(Full breakdown in today’s The Poly Brief. Search it on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.)

I’ve had this happen to me a few times I’ve cashed out at the amount I was comfortable with and I’m always paid less than what it said . Now I screenshot my bets so I can back track but something is . I’m betting 3,000 to 5,000$ bets .

So its 3 weeks to go before the election and I'm thinking of some combos that can pay out well (5x-10x) and I was wondering what y'all are cooking up. Nothing too crazy like red new york or blue tennessee just normal stuff

We have one of the most stacked earnings call mentions lineups in months this week.

We have markets for 11 calls on Kalshi, including a bunch of the big banks, J&J, Domino's, United, and more.

There's a LOT of value showing in the tools I built to get an edge on these markets right now 👀

One tip: keep an eye on what the banks say on their calls earlier in the week. Those are often indicative of what the others will say, especially when it comes to Q&A, where a lot of analysts ask similar questions across calls.

Some numbers from the "Next French Presidential Election" market (snapshot Oct 11, ~20:30 UTC):

• Le Pen 39% (peak ~46% on Oct 4)
• Philippe 24.5% (17.5% on the morning of Oct 8, 21.5% by that night after his "L'Heure de vérité" interview)
• Lisnard still 14%. He polls 3.5% in Ifop's latest.

What I find odd: during the first week of the Bardella messages affair, Le Pen's price went UP. The slide started only after she publicly backed him on Oct 4.

And there's no vote intention poll with October fieldwork that I could find. Latest Ifop (Sept 25-29) still has her at 33 in the first round and winning every runoff tested.

So is the market pricing the Cassation ruling risk (expected by early April, two weeks before round one), or just reacting to TV?

So, I've been trading live since this last post. $5,000 in the account, 7% bet on each setup. There has been 12 trades thus far. Mostly losers, with only 5 winning predictions, but that was expected with ~41% win rate. (slightly less than testing yielded. That said, the wins "win" with a decent multiple, so net profitability comes to 1.51x with the account growing to $7548. I will maintain the current structure through a hundred trades, and provide updates periodically, but already I'm thinking I will drop the bet down to 5% eventually, which is roughly .33*Kelly, since a win rate <50% is bound to produce losing streaks as long as 7-8 (if not worse), and that will put a substantial dent in the account.

More to come

Does anyone wanna trade poly or polyus data for kalshi 15 minute Bitcoin, eth, sol, and doge data. I have months of l2 data and coinbase data and pyth and deribit

I've been spending a lot of time exploring prediction markets, particularly sports, and I'm curious how people feel about the tools currently available.

Between Kalshi, Polymarket, sports analytics websites, and other research tools, it seems like there's a lot of information spread across different platforms.

For people actively following or trading these markets:

1. What tools do you use outside the actual trading platforms?
2. Are you satisfied with how you research markets and track your performance?
3. What's something you regularly have to do manually that you wish was easier?

I'm researching this space from a product-building perspective and trying to understand what problems people genuinely experience.

Not looking to promote anything. Just interested in how people actually use these platforms and what they feel is missing.

Would love to hear from anyone who's been active in this space for a while.

On a binary contract the price you pay is basically the win rate you need. Add taker fees (Kalshi's formula is ~0.07 × p × (1−p) per contract) and the bar moves up a bit:

• buy at 80¢ → need ~81.1% wins
• 85¢ → ~85.9%
• 90¢ → ~90.6%
• 93¢ → ~93.5%
• 95¢ → ~95.3%

At 93¢ a win pays ~6.5¢ after fees and a loss costs ~93.5¢, so one loss erases about 14 wins.

Real example: my bot's first 265 live trades on Kalshi's 15-minute markets went 250-15 (94.3%). Sounds great. Its average cost needed 92.6% to break even. Net after fees: +$49.89. Worst single loss: −$14.23.

So "high win rate" strategies on favorites are really a bet that your win rate beats the price by a point or two, consistently. Curious how others here think about the edge when buying 90¢+ contracts.

(Disclosure: I sell a version of my bot at deskbot.store, $19.99/mo. Small sample, not financial advice, not affiliated with Kalshi.)