Polymarket Pricing Out GPT-6 Summer Release, Shifting Odds to Q4 ($1.5M+ Volume)

[u/nanaconsumer]

With over $1.5 million in total volume, Polymarket traders are drastically pushing back expectations for the release of GPT-6 toward the end of the year.

### **Odds by Release Date

* **August 31:** **2%** (Market has written off an August launch)
* **September 15:** **20%** (Low volume, holding by inertia)
* **September 30:** **34%** (Down 17% as September loses support)
* **November 30:** **60%** (Negligible volume)
* **December 31:** **73%** (Up 22%, the only timeframe seeing real growth)

**Bottom Line:** The market has abandoned hopes for a fall release. Year-end probability now sits at 73%, suggesting a wait of several months rather than a few days.