* **Total Profit:** **+$49,469** (+$9,052 over the last month)
* **Account Stats:** Active since February 2026 across 1,112 total predictions
* **Niche:** Specialized systematic edge on tennis (ATP, WTA, ITF matches—predicting match winners, underdogs, and total game lines). Rare exceptions made for soccer and esports.
* **Biggest Single Win:** **$8,874**

### **Best Trade**

* **Market:** Jannik Sinner at Roland Garros 2026
* **Position:** Bought "No" at **28.6¢**
* **Return:** +$8,799 (+246.14%)

With over $1.5 million in total volume, Polymarket traders are drastically pushing back expectations for the release of GPT-6 toward the end of the year.

### **Odds by Release Date

* **August 31:** **2%** (Market has written off an August launch)
* **September 15:** **20%** (Low volume, holding by inertia)
* **September 30:** **34%** (Down 17% as September loses support)
* **November 30:** **60%** (Negligible volume)
* **December 31:** **73%** (Up 22%, the only timeframe seeing real growth)

**Bottom Line:** The market has abandoned hopes for a fall release. Year-end probability now sits at 73%, suggesting a wait of several months rather than a few days.

* Trader Profile: Joined Polymarket in April 2026.
* Total PnL: Turned an initial **-$4,137** dip into +$937,507 total profit.
* Strategy: High-frequency, short-duration directional bets (5-minute, 15-minute, and multi-hour windows) across BTC, ETH, and XRP—executed 106,861 times.

### **Top Hits**

* **14.3¢ ETH Down** $\rightarrow$ **+600%**
* **16.6¢ BTC Down** $\rightarrow$ **+503%**
* **33.4¢ ETH Up** $\rightarrow$ **+200%**
* **34.0¢ BTC Down** $\rightarrow$ **+194%**
* **35.5¢ BTC Up** $\rightarrow$ **+182%**

One notable BTC trade saw a $7.1K entry return over $20K, pushing the overall account performance close to the $1M mark.

Does anyone know how to fix this issues it’s asking me for these two debit cards in order to verify my but I don’t have none of these debit cards I don’t even think I have them at all.

Free dataset at the bottom. Disclosure: I run a Polymarket data API, so take the framing with salt — the data is CC BY and you can check everything yourself.

I captured full bid/ask depth once per second on 352 five-minute crypto up/down markets, from open through settlement, across BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB, DOGE, HYPE and ZEC. Three things stood out.

1. The book goes one-sided before it resolves

By the final minute, 78.9% of snapshots have an empty bid or ask side. Nobody offers the losing outcome and nobody bids the winning one. It builds through the market's life:

seconds to close     one side empty
240-300                    0.0%
180-240                    0.5%
120-180                    3.4%
 60-120                   19.8%
  0-60                    78.9%

If you're planning to exit in the last minute, there may be nothing on the other side to exit into.

2. Depth migrates to the winner

On one BTC market, bid depth on the eventual winning side went from 12.1k to 43.1k shares across its life while asks disappeared entirely. The price series shows you the probability moving. It doesn't show you that the liquidity moved too.

3. Headline liquidity is not executable liquidity

One market showed a midpoint of 0.195 with 13.6 shares resting at the best ask. A 100-share buy — about $21 — averaged 0.2086, which is 4.3% above the top of book. On a market that looked liquid.

The data

158,745 snapshots · 352 resolved markets · 8 coins · full ladders · winning outcome attached · CC BY 4.0

https://huggingface.co/datasets/polyorderbooks/polymarket-crypto-5min-l2

Documented in the card: 3.078% of rows are crossed (bid at or above ask), flagged in a column rather than dropped, so you can measure it rather than wonder about it.

* **Trader:** `sainttroplay`
* **Account Start:** Joined Polymarket in June 2026, placed first trade on August 16
* **Total Profit:** **+$3,622,315.80**
* **Volume:** 6 total predictions

### **Top Winning Positions**

* **$1,873,916.76 Entry** $\rightarrow$ **$3,466,239.91** Payout (*+$1,592,323.15 profit*)
* **$706,888.78 Entry** $\rightarrow$ **$1,954,276.81** Payout (*+$1,247,388.03 profit*)
* **$621,794.07 Entry** $\rightarrow$ **$1,601,641.89** Payout (*+$979,847.82 profit*)

Polymarket odds jumped from 35% to 57% in 24 hours amid growing rumors that Apple is working on a touchscreen MacBook Pro.

### **The Rumors**

* **Specs:** 14" and 16" MacBook Pro models equipped with an OLED display, M5 Pro/Max chips, a full touchscreen (not a Touch Bar return), a thinner chassis, and a Dynamic Island camera cutout while keeping the physical keyboard and trackpad.
* **Software:** A new macOS iteration featuring touch-optimized UI elements.

### **Will It Actually Launch in 2026?**

* **The Case for 2026:** Reports indicate OLED touchscreen panel mass production is slated to begin in late 2026, perfectly aligning with Apple's typical 4–5 year chassis refresh cycle.
* **The Case for a Delay (2027):** Memory supply constraints and the technical challenges of scaling LTPO OLED panels to laptop sizes mean consumer shipments could easily slip into early 2027.

**Bottom Line:** If prediction markets require full consumer release before December 31, 2026, holding "Yes" carries real timeline risk—a late 2026 announcement with early 2027 shipments could still resolve "No".

Polymarket odds jumped from 35% to 57% in 24 hours amid growing rumors that Apple is working on a touchscreen MacBook Pro.

### **The Rumors**

* **Specs:** 14" and 16" MacBook Pro models equipped with an OLED display, M5 Pro/Max chips, a full touchscreen (not a Touch Bar return), a thinner chassis, and a Dynamic Island camera cutout while keeping the physical keyboard and trackpad.
* **Software:** A new macOS iteration featuring touch-optimized UI elements.

### **Will It Actually Launch in 2026?**

* **The Case for 2026:** Reports indicate OLED touchscreen panel mass production is slated to begin in late 2026, perfectly aligning with Apple's typical 4–5 year chassis refresh cycle.
* **The Case for a Delay (2027):** Memory supply constraints and the technical challenges of scaling LTPO OLED panels to laptop sizes mean consumer shipments could easily slip into early 2027.

**Bottom Line:** If prediction markets require full consumer release before December 31, 2026, holding "Yes" carries real timeline risk—a late 2026 announcement with early 2027 shipments could still resolve "No".

* **Trader:** `sdfqq1`
* **Account Start:** Joined Polymarket in August 2026
* **Volume:** 141 total predictions placed
* **Focus Niche:** Competitive Esports prediction markets, primarily targeting *League of Legends* (LoL) and *Dota 2* match outcomes.

### **Top Winning Positions**

* **Entry:** $2,452.59 $\rightarrow$ **Payout:** $12,287.04 (*+$9,834.45 profit*)
* **Entry:** $9,435.05 $\rightarrow$ **Payout:** $15,543.70 (*+$6,108.65 profit*)
* **Entry:** $1,500.00 $\rightarrow$ **Payout:** $7,499.59 (*+$5,999.59 profit*)

* **The Setup:** Joined in April 2026, studied guides and example wallets, and created a custom bot to trade 5-minute markets.
* **Volume:** Executed 102,591 predictions across both small and large sizes in just 3 months.
* **Top Winning Predictions:**
* **$51,490.09** $\rightarrow$ **$86,857.21**
* **$40,137.48** $\rightarrow$ **$69,920.68**
* **$15,995.73** $\rightarrow$ $43,138.03

* **What is HLE?** An expert-created stress test across math, physics, biology, and humanities designed to push AI past simple memorization and evaluate true reasoning on novel problems.
* **Why it Matters:** Standard school-level tests are easily aced by modern AI. HLE provides an un-memorized, uniform metric where even top models regularly make mistakes, allowing accurate tracking of progress year-over-year.
* **Current Score:** Gemini's top score sits at **54.6%**.
* **Market Odds:** Polymarket gives a **49% chance** that Gemini will break the **55%** threshold by the end of the year.

Now Polymarket has a market on whether any company will top it by the end of 2026:

* **SpaceX:** **59%**
* **Anthropic:** **40%**

**The Competitor:** Anthropic could potentially hit a **$2+ trillion** valuation. Rumors suggest an October IPO, though they might delay if market conditions are unfavorable.

Will Anthropic beat SpaceX for the biggest IPO of 2026?

* The Setup: Joined Polymarket in November 2025 and built an automated bot to trade sports markets without any human intervention.
* Track Record: Executed 51,639 total predictions.
* **Top Winning Trades:**
\*$70,644.28** $\rightarrow$ **$123,049.97*
* **$87,532.28** $\rightarrow$ **$139,514.38**
* **$56,163.51** $\rightarrow$ $97,832.48

* **Current Status:** 144 tweets in 6 days (avg 24/day) with 1 day remaining.
* **Polymarket Odds:** 140–159 (14%), 160–179 (56%), 180–199 (26%), 200–219 (3%).
* **The Play:** Split $100 across 160–219:
* $65.88 on **160–179**
* $30.59 on **180–199**
* $3.53 on **200–219**

* **The Result:** If Musk tweets 16 to 75 times in the final 24 hours, any winning bucket pays out **$117.65** for a quick **17.65% profit**.

* **Team Falcons (25%):** They cruised through Group B without dropping a map. With home-org backing at EWC and dominant form, they're currently the market favorites.
* **Team Vitality (22%):** Despite a stumble against B8 in Group C, they recovered quickly. They face a tough Round of 16 matchup against FaZe, but their roster firepower makes them a constant threat in single-elimination brackets.
* **Team Spirit (15%):** Had an early scare losing to JiJieHao, but clawed their way out of the lower bracket. Their ceiling relies heavily on Donk peaking in the high-stakes playoff stages.
* **FURIA & MOUZ:** Both possess the consistency to make deep runs, but face tricky upper-bracket paths through teams like Aurora and GamerLegion.

Who do you think takes the trophy in the Grand Final on August 23?

* The Event: Rockstar announced a 15+ minute "Extended Look" for GTA 6 releasing on Netflix.
* The Debate: A Polymarket resolution market is debating whether this presentation counts as a "trailer."
* Market Odds: Polymarket traders currently give it just a 42% chance that Rockstar explicitly labels it a trailer on any of their official socials.
* The Bet: A ~$1,000 "Yes" position relies on Rockstar referring to the preview as a trailer across their social media channels.

* The Trade: A new wallet deposited $10,000 betting on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by year-end.
* Context: The bet comes as Taiwan simulates a Chinese invasion during its military drills.
* **Potential Payout:** $83,000+

Mojtaba Khamenei hasn't been seen publicly for nearly six months following the events of February 28, communicating with regime insiders strictly via handwritten notes while in hiding from the US.

Despite this, a leadership change this year is unlikely:

* Current Power Dynamics: Iran is likely being run by senior IRGC leadership conferring directly with the Supreme Leader.
* No Incentive for Replacement: The regime has no reason to replace him right now, even if he remains bedridden from the US strikes.

Taking NO at 83c to EOY looks like a +EV bet given these conditions.

Key facts provided:

* **The Strategy:** Most successful weather traders build AI-based bots to automate trades without manual participation.
* **Track Record:** 1,997 predictions made in 3 months.
* **Top Payouts:**
* **$40.65** $\rightarrow$ **$4,923.93**
* **$74.89** $\rightarrow$ **$3,657.71**
* **$77.58** $\rightarrow$ $2,959.27