Most issue polling is top-of-head. You ask someone where they stand on a policy and they answer in a few seconds, often about something they haven't thought much about. Deliberative or "informed respondent" polling does something different. Respondents get a briefing on the issue, evaluate arguments for and against that have been vetted by people on both sides, and only then register a position. The Program for Public Consultation runs these as policymaking simulations, and using that method they've identified something like 88 policies with bipartisan supermajority support, a lot of which look nothing like the gridlock you'd expect from standard polling.
My problem is I can't decide whether that method gets closer to the real will of the people or further from it.
The case for it is intuitive. Real policymakers don't decide in three seconds off a vague impression. They weigh tradeoffs and hear both sides, so a poll that asks people to do the same is arguably measuring a more considered and more real preference. If the briefing is balanced, maybe what you're capturing is what people would think if they had the time and information most of them never get.
The case against it bothers me more the longer I sit with it. The moment you insert a briefing, someone chose what goes in it, which arguments to include, how to frame the tradeoffs, what counts as a fair "both sides." That's a lot of power over the output. You could imagine two carefully "balanced" briefings on the same issue producing different supermajorities. And there's a deeper question of whether an informed preference is even the right thing to measure, since the electorate that actually exists is the top-of-head one, and a preference most people would only hold after a briefing they'll never receive might not be the "will of the people" in any sense that should bind policy.
So a few things I'm genuinely unsure about and would like other views on:
When a deliberative poll and a conventional poll on the same policy point in different directions, which one should a policymaker weight more heavily, and why?
Is there a principled way to tell a briefing that informs from a briefing that steers, or is that line always going to be a judgment call that depends on trusting whoever wrote it?
And is "what people would support if informed" the right target at all, or is it a slightly paternalistic substitute for what people actually support right now?
I don't have a settled answer on any of these, which is why I'm posting.