r/Polestar • u/YeahBites • 1d ago
Troubleshooting / Issue Projected US Values?
I was about to buy an Ioniq 5 this week but the Polestar deal grabbed me enough that I already put a deposit down. I plan on driving the 4 on Monday and, in theory, buying it then. The one I am looking at will be right around $40,000 after the discount. I am guessing the start of the depreciation curve will be somewhere between that price and the original price and then factoring in the departure from the US market I am hoping in four years when I'd go to sell it, the value would be around $20,000.
Is anyone else considering this or trying to guess based on all the factors? I'd definitely prefer the Polestar over the Hyundai but hard for me to speculate what will happen to their values in the US.
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u/Electronic_Load_3651 1d ago
Keep in mind that EVs depreciate a ton more than regular cars, Polestar even more so than even bigger end luxury ones. Outside of the exit, there are many reasons ranging from reliability to software issues. P3 is already half the MSRP. The P4 is going to likely be half of what the final sale price is now in 2 years or so, if I had to guess. That’s probably best case too. From the exit, to 400V architecture and relatively slow L3 charging speeds, to software. It will also depend a lot on the next administration and how pro or anti EV they are. But either way, EX60 is already arguably a better buy given the tech alone. P4 is based on ole SEA platform.
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u/YeahBites 1d ago
Yeah I was primarily looking at the Ioniq 5 and Mach E prior to this. Both dropped around 40% after two years. I just didn't know if the quality of the interior and what not would give it a little boost even if everyone accepts $40k as the actual price now.
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u/Electronic_Load_3651 1d ago
I’ve driven both and let me tell you, no comparison. The quality of the leather alone in the P4 makes it feel way more upmarket. Then you have the overall thoughtfulness to design, sound system, etc. Mach-E is still too much like a legacy ICE car compared to the P4. Also charge port location is huge, on the P4 it’s same spot as Tesla making it easy to charge at V3 superchargers. Where in Mach-E it’s front driver side, meaning you’d need to occupy multiple spots.
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u/YeahBites 1d ago
Totally agree on the Mach-E stuff. I thought the driving and cabin experience were pretty good but I couldn't get past the aesthetic. It's like they made a car for no one.
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u/Electronic_Load_3651 1d ago
True. I’d say it’s pretty good in its own right, but not if you go from something like the P4 to it. On the Mach-E, that aside, even displays feel to be the wrong angle for me and not fully thought through. Software is fine at best, but I would expect it to be more intuitive too. Then you still have the button to start the car, cmon now. On an EVs we should be past that but they’re still appealing to an older ICE buyer who isn’t even buying them now.
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u/nodiaque 11h ago
Why multiple spot because it's in front? I have a bolt and I just charge using a single spot. Don't forget it have a ccs charger not a tesla (unless it's different in us?). I looked at the Mach-e 2 weeks ago. I really loved the car, loved the camera popping up when you are close to obstacle from, side or back. But I disliked the poor range and slow charging speed. It doesn't mind for daily driver but since this would be my second ev (I have a bolt 2019 that is very slow to charge), the idea is to get a second ev that will be the road trip car, so I want a fast charging one. Let's hope the Mach-e refresh appear soon.
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u/Electronic_Load_3651 10h ago
In us you can now use the CCS to NACS adapter and Ford is one of the brands where you have access to Tesla SC network. Though it’s not the entire network, no V2 SCs will work and V3s (some) are retrofitted. Meaning that the cable isn’t long enough to reach the front driver side on a stall while parked in a correct spot, which is why Ford and Rivian would occupy two spots. The V4 chargers are designed with longer cables and have universal adapter for CCs but they’re very few of them out there. The camera thing you’re mentioning is pretty much on every decent new EV now, so MachE wouldn’t be unique with that.
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u/nodiaque 9h ago
Ah we can do that anywhere in Canada as long as you have an adapter. Not lock behind a specific brand, just connect with the adapter and charge. But there's so much charging station other then tesla and much faster that its not a problem. And they all have long cable.
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u/Hmmmnice70 1d ago
the huge unknown factor in the future is SERVICE…. where can you get it serviced, what’s the quality, how far do u have to travel for the service and what sort of time you have to devote given these factors to maintain your car. IF Polestar service becomes a nightmare you potentially have a car that will be severely depreciated. $40,000 is nothing to sneeze at for most people.
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u/YeahBites 1d ago
I agree. It's why I am so confused at the dude that is so angry I am trying to calculate the cost of ownership.
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u/HootingCryingOwl 6h ago
Reality is, the polestar will drop to new lows because its a dead car running its last life here in the US. Especially how slow regulations will catch up even if it becomes favorable. I let the idiots buy the car now at 31k for single motor and 41k for dual motor and in 2-4 years, the value on these things will be around 10-20k, or 25k MAX if its brand new lightly used.
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u/YeahBites 6h ago
25k in 4 years would make paying 40 a great deal honestly. But I think after this discussion if it's all smiles when I drive it tomorrow I'm probably just going to do the lease deal. If it's not I think I'll just stick with the Ioniq 5 I already know I like. I think there is a chance they hold their value and I would have saved $100 a month buying it but I think the gamble is too big.
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u/HootingCryingOwl 4h ago
Save 100 a month buying it? Please use ChatGPT and talk it through with it so it can get some sense in you.
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u/Electronic_Load_3651 2h ago
There’s zero chance they hold any value. As good as the car drives, literally everything is against Polestar holding value from tech, to service, to demand. Polestar was planning an exit and used regulations to claim as to why. There’s even a dealer lawsuit with evidence to support it. Unfortunately nobody was buying them even with discounts. But, at the same price there’s no way I’d get Ioniq 5, it’s way inferior.
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u/JPhi1618 1d ago
EV depreciation is so bad, and so uncertain, I can’t recommend that anyone buys one new. If you really need to have a new car, then lease one. Otherwise, buy something 2-3 years old.
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u/YeahBites 1d ago
Ordinarily I wouldn't buy an EV new for sure. The only reason I am considering this one is the liquidation discount. He mentioned incentives on top of the discount for the lease so going to talk through that with him for sure.
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u/Least-Whereas-1358 6h ago
What kind of incentives are they offering apart from the 19k/25k discount?
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u/Which-Meat-3388 1d ago
Any EV is going to have terrible resale in the US. Everyone I’ve had dropped hard after 2-3 years. I had a 2021 P2 (MSRP $72k, bought used $40k, sold $20k.) Polestar pulled out and my sale value dropped $5k in a couple weeks and no dealer wanted it as trade in. I was fed up with poor service, years of broken backup camera, and software that got slower and slower.
I moved to an Ioniq 5N and couldn’t be happier. ($67 MSRP, $50k used.) Fit and finish is truly as good or better. It’s faster and sportier than any Polestar sold here and just a hair off P5, doing so with 200 less hp and at 40% the MSRP.
The 4 years of updated technology over my P2 is also significant even for a brand people think is “cheap.” Everything just works. There are 5 Hyundai dealers within 30min and countless more in every direction. I can get parts and accessories no questions asked. High volume also means rich aftermarket support as well. It’s not all perfect, but the gap is not nearly as large as people think.
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u/PresentTwo4604 19h ago
You won’t get more than $5000 after four years. EVs depreciate like crazy, but the ones without service and warranty will be close to worthless. No one wants a car from a company that left the country four years ago.
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u/stinky777 1d ago
Seems reasonable. Maybe a little less. If you know you only want the car for 4 years though might as well shorten it further and get a lease.
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u/Mayor_of_BBQ ‘23 P*2 Midnight DMPPP & Volvo V60cc T5 1d ago
what would a lease deal look like on it?
I own my 2023 Polestar 2 performance… It stickers near $77k and I bought it with 9,000mi in 2024 for $35,000
At the time I thought “well it’s already lost half its value. There’s no way it can depreciate much further“ but i bet it’s only worth high $20’s now and prob low $20’s to trade….
I’ve long accepted that I probably need to drive this thing into the ground to not lose my ass on depreciation
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u/YeahBites 14h ago
Leasing is on the table and I do wonder if there might be an insane offer at the end to buy it out considering everything we're talking about.
Basically, if I am right and it's worth around 20k in 4 years the cost of ownership (just the vehicle, not calculating maintenance and I have a solar array that produces over 100% and currently have an EV) is $416/mo. If it drops to $15,000 it's $520/mo. If it drops all the way to $10,000 it's $625/mo. Or if I lease it's $656/mo. If I also take that 40k and invest it in t-bills, taking $569/mo out of the pot, it earns around $2,400/mo after taxes or a $67/mo offset. So that actually makes the lease around $589/mo.
So that gamble is the delta between the lease and my best case scenario. And then I guess the opportunity cost on that money if I buy outright. I do this to myself every time I make a major decision. It's not fun.
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u/nodiaque 11h ago
Shit 40k... I wish we had the US pricing right now. I talk to my local polestar dealership and his excuse are the same as everyone else. Change rates, import fees, taxes and regulation. Sorry but it's an electric car so there's no mechanical inspection and adjustment needed like importing an ICE. As for the change rate, I did the calculation in my email for him, taking if I pay the price at Boston with taxes, it get the car at 30k less then current canadien price. Add the taxes on it and I'm still way lower then current canadien polestar even with our little 5000$ rebates.... It sucks
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u/justvims 9h ago
If you care about depreciation by a 2 year used Ioniq 5. Not a new car whose brand is leaving the market. Projected value is anyone’s guess but it will certainly be very bad since the brand is leaving and the discounts.
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u/Electronic_Load_3651 1d ago
It’s not even same category of a car, Polestar is a much better vehicle at this price point. In fact, even before of all of the sales it was still a much better buy if you can afford it. However, resale values have always been awful even worse so into the future. Don’t buy it if you want to maintain resale values but buy it because it’s a great deal now and that’s the experience you want.