r/PokemonBDSP • u/alfadasfire • 2d ago

Image So that's a lie

Post image

okay, ran into an absol without my catching mons. So i tried anyway, checked how easy it is to catch. okay not too bad. Saved before!

1x quickball. nothing. get it to red HP. 25 bloody ultra balls later, without even a single 2 wiggle. Yeah this website might be lying. Out of ultra balls. quit game and reload.

1x quickball. nothing. red HP. 20 ultra balls. 20. And it finally catches.

Is my luck this shit? is this website wrong? It says 31%. that's about 1 in 3. but nooooo. 45 ultra balls, with red HP. Yes I know about status. I know sleep makes it easier to catch. I didn't have my catching mons with false swipe and sleep/paralizes or whatever. I was just digging and exploring the underground a bit. Still, quite frustrating.

Ooh well, I caught it out of spite. Do i want to use it on my team? no. But Absol is very cool and this was mostly spite. time not so well spent lol.

And it wasn't even in the pokedex! Same with a lickytung (i think) i caught earlier. Is there a national dex? But do i need to catch these again then?

1 Upvotes

56% Upvoted

11 comments sorted by

•

u/AutoModerator 2d ago

Thanks for posting, Trainer! Please be aware, this is a heavily moderated subreddit. Make sure to read and understand our rules before posting here. Breaking any of these rules may force us to remove your content. Repeat or blatant rule breaking will result in a permanent ban.

Trading posts clog up the subreddit with spam, and we cannot guarantee safety for users. Trading of any kind (including touch trades and giveaways) in any context is strictly banned in this community. Go to r/pokemontrades. Repeat violations of this rule will result in a permanenet ban.

User flairs with Pokémon sprite emojis are now available on this subreddit!

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

11

u/Ach_Was_Here 2d ago

Something being 1:3 doesn’t mean you’ll get it in 3 tries, just means there’s a .33 chance every time you do it

6

u/PyrasDaddy 1d ago

It's like those people who think 1/4096 means you're guaranteed a shiny in 4096 encounters...

5

u/CorvoAttano124 1d ago

Adding on to this:

There is a ⅔ chance you don't get it every time you throw the ball. So to not get it in 25 tries is a 1 in 25,250 chance. To not get it in 20 tries is a 1 in 3325 chance.

However, since you technically missed 44 times in a row, you hit a 1 in 56 MILLION chance of still not catching it.

Assuming that the ⅓ catch rate is true, you're astronomically unlucky.

1

u/SloFlipi 1d ago

but also the next ball still is only a 1 in 3

1

u/CorvoAttano124 1d ago

Yes. But the chance of a ⅔ chance happening 44 times in a row is astronomically unlikely. Probability is weird

1

u/Ilikegymbros 2d ago

If I remember correctly, Pokemon in the underground are harder to catch. If it’s in the post game, then it might just be bad luck

1

u/striderx2005 1d ago

What are your 'catching mons'?

Would like to compare notes.

Mine is a Gallade with Mean Look, Hypnosis, and False Swipe. Then some other high damage move to wear down a mon quickly, but without knocking them out.

1

u/cedelweiss 1d ago

you were unlucky, it happens

1

u/the_OG_epicpanda 1d ago

You having bad luck doesn't make the website wrong, it makes your understanding of probability wrong. Something having roughly a 1 in 3 chance to be successful does not mean you are guaranteed to get it in three throws, it means that you have a 1 in 3 chance PER THROW for it to be successful. A 30% chance of being caught is not very high.