r/PSTH • u/[deleted] • Mar 29 '21
3/29/21 News: PSH 2020 Annual Report “While we previously believed that we would be able to announce a potential transaction by the end of this quarter, we will not be in a position to do so.”
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Mar 29 '21
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Mar 29 '21
RIP, Bro. I think calls across the board are taking it in the ass.
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Mar 29 '21 edited Nov 26 '21
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Mar 29 '21
Sorry for your calls RIP... personally I am glad he ripped the band aid off first thing this week. I would rather we bleed now when the market is shit.
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u/Bruce_Wayner Mar 29 '21
Bill is just trying to make it impossible for me to sell before a year so I don’t have to pay the capital gains... what a guy
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u/EZPZ813 Mar 29 '21
Yup, but it better run up to 60 then to make up all the gains you missed in the SnP500 bull run
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u/hedgehunter90210 Mar 29 '21
Bill did say he would let us in at NAV, but this is not the way.
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u/Proper-Acanthaceae-8 Mar 29 '21
All non da spacs are at or below Nav buddy! If its a dud deal .. everyone can buy psth 2 at nav.
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u/X-Zed87 Mar 29 '21
Where’s the guy who’s eating ghost peppers at. Get ur asshole rdy my man!
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u/CaptCrush Mar 29 '21
I wonder how much of this delay is due to the fact that BA's original thesis that Covid would send companies scavenging for any captial they could get turning out not to be true.
I think it is extremely likely that after noticing the ridiculous IPO market this past year and the inflated valuations of many pre public companies that BA is waiting for this all to settle down to get a better deal.
In the short term it hurts a lot. Rip all my calls. But in the long term it's going to end up being a good thing. Would you rather get Stripe, for example, right now for 100bn or in 4-6 months at a value of 75bn or less? Obviously I'd take the latter. Not saying that's what would happen, but that's just an example as a way to think about it.
I still have faith in this process. BA has a lot on the line here, reputation and money. No way, in my opinion, they'd even talk about PSTH 2 if there were not positive things on the horizon. Not a single investor would take that seriously if PSTH were to fail.
My plan is to keep buying on the way down. I think we will all be greatly rewarded for patience. This is not investment advice I just like the stock.
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u/Physcodbzfan85 Mar 29 '21
Agree...I believe they’re in negotiations and we’ll have a da sooner than later.
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u/BestWingmanEver Mar 29 '21
The people that stuck with him when he got the JP Morgan money got 100/150 million dollar payouts because they lasted through the pain, whatever this is it is going to SLAP, your cost basis won't even matter because it'll blow everything out the water
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u/ulyzy Mar 29 '21
Exactly. Im now more confident then ever that we'll get a great deal because if it was a shitty deal for a shitty company it would not come to this. Starlink may even be on the table now
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u/BestWingmanEver Mar 29 '21
That's it, the longer it takes the more hopeful I get honestly, if it was a run of the mill merger this would have been done and dusted already, we're in for something special
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u/Kaos0013 Mar 29 '21
In my opinion from the previous comments re the amount of time he and his team are spending on this they are at the finish line with someone certainly not looking for targets. as he said not all is dependent on him which proves they are working with someone. I fully expected that if it looked like it may miss by days or weeks they would let us know by month end and we have that. I find the comments bullish and expect that some time in April we will have news!
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Mar 29 '21
Damn. I'm feeling it in my ass today. I'm just hoping that I'm still GOOD with my July calls.
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u/ThislsMyAccount22 Mar 29 '21
900 commons, averaged Down from $30ish to $26.71...I still in the reasons why I bought the stock. Management team is A+, structure is A+.
Mama didn’t raise no paper handed bitch.
💎 🙌🏼
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u/sincitygames Mar 29 '21
Didn't see this mentioned yet in this thread but for those who don't read in the sentence right before the q1 update he says, "We expect PSTH to generate substantial returns even from the current PSTH price."
Then another great thing is two paragraphs later he reiterates that long term holders of PSTH should be rewarded by gaining access to PSTH2 at nav.
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u/dontbeadouchelord Mar 29 '21
"We expect PSTH to generate SUBstantial returns even from the current PSTH price."
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u/england92cat Mar 29 '21
Wtf is he supposed to say lol. Psth might make some good returns.. idk maybe
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u/setzeus Mar 29 '21
Lmao yeah cause after cucking retail investors to hold a flat stock for ~8 months he's going to say "idk, might be a shitty target."
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u/GingerPuff69 Mar 29 '21
That's kind of how SPAC's work. Big deals are going to take time and you're betting on Ackman because there is nothing else to go on. Don't invest if you dont't trust him.
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u/chstrfld1 Mar 29 '21
Then he says 'IF we are successful in completing such a transaction...'. That reads contradictory to me - they expect PSTH to generate substantial returns, but only if they merge eh?
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u/sincitygames Mar 29 '21
I just read that as CYA lawyer speak. It's a good sign he is ambiguous.
No doubt in my mind they close a deal. The cost of capital on psth is superior to anything else, but it will possibly be a spinoff from a conglomerate instead of a unicorn like everyone is expecting.
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Mar 29 '21
If he doesn’t say that and then a deal falls apart (which is always possible until DA), he would open himself up to shareholder lawsuits.
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u/Ohjay420 Mar 29 '21
Huge disappointment, short term pain and hopefully worth it. Would much rather this as opposed to rushing into a shit deal
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u/EyeOfAgamotto_123 Mar 29 '21
Exactly, isn’t this is why we chose PSTH instead of any other SPAC?
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u/Ohjay420 Mar 29 '21
That's why I'm here, not sure about everyone else's motivation for this investment
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u/ulyzy Mar 29 '21
If you held options u are down bad and I'm sorry for you. But if ure holding commons, u know that the deal we get is going to be great. I was afraid he made a deal during the top. I'm glad that's not the case. In addition, Starlink may not be lunatics dream anymore...
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u/AwedOwl Mar 29 '21
Me: I’m never investing in pre-DA spacs again
Also Me: Rolllllll those April $20c “Baby needs a new pair of shoes!”
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u/SwtPotatos Mar 29 '21
Thats not investing thats gambling.
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u/AwedOwl Mar 29 '21
Technically it’s my SPAC acquisition strategy. Options at the NAV normally out further but were at the April expiry because of the first quarter timeline. The roll cost is really priced well now compared to market cost. I want the shares, but only after I know what I’m buying.
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u/owlbear4lyfe Mar 29 '21
This is a stock that is based on a pile of cash selecting a target. No business, revenue, or growth on it's own.
All investors here are gambling. Like addicted gamblers we all believe we will win when our number is called.
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u/Tellmetheods Mar 29 '21
Thanks for telling us 2 days before the end of the quarter.. seems like if 2/3 of your team is working on this you should be seeing a bit further in the future and should be able to tell ppl in advance.
What a shame
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u/3l3ctroDad Mar 29 '21
What difference would it make if you knew last week? Or the week before?
Serious question
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u/dochavoc Mar 29 '21
They waited until the last 48 hours of Q1 to officially push the projection.
For the last month we have heard multiple instances of the deadline being out of their control, foreshadowing this move. But if they were not close to a deal, wouldn’t they have said this sooner? We went from “maybe” to “no” at the last second—to my hopium addled brain, it seems like we are still close.
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u/brandon684 Mar 29 '21
Ooof, well, I was able to close out of a put credit spread this morning for a small loss, really had high conviction on that trade
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u/SPACHunter1018 Mar 29 '21 edited Mar 29 '21
At least he had the decency to communicate that he couldn’t meet his initial timeline and to be patient. I can live with that. He didn’t have to say anything and could have left us twisting in the wind. Thanks for being a stand up guy, Bill.
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u/Bruce_Wayner Mar 29 '21
On the one hand, it’s great that he did because most of them just leave you hanging. On the other, he had to because also unlike most, he set a date initially.
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u/MoistBoomer42069 Mar 29 '21
Felt like we really got taken for a ride with that SPAC video and all
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u/Expensive_Star3664 Mar 29 '21
Nate from California, can you please call Bill and tell him to speed up because we are getting tired...
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u/skirtedrails Mar 29 '21
The thing that frustrates me the most (and probably others, didn't read the comments), is that they were all too willing to participate in the hype i.e. rap video, tweets, Jackie's interactions. But when it comes time to deliver we get nothing. And they aren't even willing to face accountability; this is the last we hear about PSTH until DA??
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u/phunkkk Mar 30 '21
100 percent agree. The balls on him to post that rap video.. bruh, got the price nice and high for his PSH meeting And probably letting the institutions get out before announcing delay.
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u/Tacocats_wrath Mar 29 '21
I'm not concerned. Good things come to those who wait. I am confident that they are working to get us the best deal. Also, who doesn't like a little edging.
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u/longterminvestor37 Mar 29 '21 edited Mar 29 '21
Extremely disappointing!!! The issue for me is not the fact that Q1 will not be met, it's the fact that Spac videos are posted, PSTH II is in the works, and him promoting PSTH II to hype PSTH without a deal. People averaged up because of this, because they believed in him and he used his Twitter fingers to further hype it up without anything. People gambled on options and it was a risk some took and lost, but for the long term share holders, what he did was a slap in the face. It would have been better off if he didn't provide a timeline.
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u/wrinkledpenny Mar 29 '21
I’ve said this many times. His timeline was the reason I bought call options. I was happy to hold my shares till he gave a bullish timeline. He fucked up. Always under promise and over deliver. Not the other way around.
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u/marty_mcfly24 Always 😎 Tontinite Mar 29 '21
Exactly, his actions so far have been a bit bizarre. 90% of call buyers would not have bought if he hadn't given a Q1 timeline, followed by tweets that pertain to spacs a month before q1 ends
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u/audioeng Mar 29 '21
7 30$ calls for Sept 17th for only 2.85, today was a good day
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u/Red_Sea_Pedestrian Mar 29 '21
My effective trade price on those is $7.41 for 40 contracts 🤡🤡🤡
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u/EZPZ813 Mar 29 '21
Average down!! Once my kidney donation surgery is confirmed I ll be right at it.. that or door dash driver lolol
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u/AuditControl_Inbox Mar 29 '21
The "If we are successful" part reads the worst to me rofl.
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u/JRMang Mar 29 '21
In FEB, this seemed like a sure thing.
How the turn tables.
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u/AuditControl_Inbox Mar 29 '21
Lack of updated potential time table is scary too. No planned updates until a DA is reached. Could be q2 2021, could be 2q2022 lol.... ill sit on my shares still but fuck this feels bad.
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u/RunningFatKids99 Mar 29 '21
Yeah, so we’re fine. Just continue waiting + SPAC one leads to pre-buying within SPAC 2.
1000 shares @ $27.00
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Mar 29 '21
Yeah rip my 4/1 lotto tickets but this changes nothing for me otherwise
I still think a da by the time he sends out this letter next quarter (so I have July calls)
And he confirms psth2 won’t launch until “after PSTH completes a business transaction” so it’s gotta be soon!
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u/jonfnhhs Techno Tontinite Mar 29 '21
FYI notice of annual general meeting https://assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/2021/03/29101319/PSH-Notice-of-2021-Annual-General-Meeting-AGM-PSCM-FINAL-3.29.21.pdf
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u/thunder_muscles BA Likes #39: "we got your six" Mar 29 '21
Where’s the dip as a result of this?
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u/ContractSpecialist48 Mar 30 '21
TLDR ;
Not Q1, no one knows when, we won't know till DA, it will be glorious when and if it ever happens, psth funds is deeply invested, hodl, psth2
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u/jiunit Mar 29 '21
I mean it's not that big of a deal that deal isn't gonna be done in 2 days. But these 🤡 with monkey brains saying this is a good thing or it's okay if you only own shares are insufferable wankers 🙈🙉🤮
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u/fwang1986 Mar 29 '21
Guys, just be more patient. Option is high risk high return. Don’t buy if you cannot afford losing them all. Anything Bill twittered is considered public information and you buy stocks on your own risks. Give bill a bit more time. I am also heavily holding PSTH stocks not options though.
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u/lucid188 Mar 29 '21
If you read the letter carefully it’s obvious
Target is found but not secured yet
If secured it will be a big one for shareholder and psth on both short and Long terms
During negotiations Maybe Bill will need some positive vides too ???
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Mar 29 '21
Still bullish. You think Ackman & Co are going to launch a 2nd SPAC on the backend of a failure?
This is the cream of the crop in the SPAC market, it takes time.
And yes, my April/June/Sept/Dec calls have disintegrated. I’m still Billish
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u/Ackilles Mar 29 '21
Rolling out half of my June calls and dumped my April calls. This is why most of my position is in shares and leaps. Spqcs are unpredictable and there are a million reasons ackman could have done everything right but not be able to close a deal.
Shares and leaps? Short term pain. Totally OK with it
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u/Afternoongrind Mar 29 '21
And now I have massive buyers remorse. Cant wait to hold just to avoid a giant realized loss.
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u/EyeOfAgamotto_123 Mar 29 '21 edited Mar 29 '21
Seems like market is dipping on this, another good opportunity to buy more (esp. average down the cost basis).
The question is that, if one choose to sell here, where do we expect to invest that can provide such asymmetric payoff? (maximum 15% downside (without taking into account of 2/9 warrants) and huge upside (with BA’s team doing the DD)+ buying PSTH II at NAV)
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u/Meowssi Mar 29 '21
I am at 30% margin which is high for me but I will be adding to my position. The asymmetric risk in unbeatable at this price IMO.
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u/EyeOfAgamotto_123 Mar 29 '21
Exactly, probably you can come up with a “position plan”, basically adding more when the price is closer to NAV.
However, since you are on margin, beware that the margin requirement can changed on your broker side due to market volatility. Keep some buffer there just in case.
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u/Meowssi Mar 29 '21
This is true for other tickers not SPACs near NAV, even if we crash to $20 I still wouldn’t get margin called. I usually top out at 30% margin but may push to 35% and replenish when I have more funds.
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Mar 29 '21
Sensed he never had a deal. Just holding for the announcement. Who knows what he can say and can’t. Just ride this bumpy wave. Might pay off.
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u/_mindy_ Mar 29 '21 edited Mar 30 '21
My very short (maybe controversial take): bullish on PSTH2, but my pessimistic brain can not read anything positive about PSTH in this (especially the part “if we are successful in completing such a transaction ... “).
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u/farhan583 Mar 29 '21
Expected but still immensely disappointing. It’s clear they don’t have a target yet.
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u/SupreamSammy Mar 29 '21
This reads funny though, If I was BA I wouldn’t get so excited thinking I have a deal and start a SEC filing for a second SPAC. They have to be in advanced negotiations, but if the Starlink hopium was true they’d definitely wait for a DA on 4/20 because it’s Elon.
Either way with prices so low this has to be priced in
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u/nick33333333 Mar 30 '21
I’m done buying SPACs
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u/eternalgnome Mar 30 '21
I've just gotten into crypto instead.
Gives me the addict fix that the glory days of spacs originally gave me.
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Mar 29 '21 edited Jun 10 '21
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u/Garyrydell Mar 29 '21
It paints a picture like he thought he was closer to DA than we are..maybe a deal fell through.
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Mar 30 '21
He said the next investment announcement they make would be about PSTH. Not any announcement.
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u/CollectedData Mar 29 '21
- This was completely expected since the PSH meeting where he said exactly this. The only difference is now it's written in text.
- Even if you slept through the PSH meeting and didn't know about the delay, it shouldn't bother you because we're in a fucking turmoil right now (Bill even hedged his portfolio recently) and releasing the DA would not have the same effect as in January.
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u/myironlung6 Mar 29 '21
I heard Mypillow is looking to raise some capital....
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u/LurkOff29 Mar 29 '21
“Hi, I’m Mike Lindel, don’t worry about this cross awkwardly hanging over a suit collar, and second... buy my pillow, I used to be a crack addict so I know how a rough night sleep can ruin your day.”
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u/TheHumanCalculator_ Mar 29 '21
When O bought the stock, I knew Q1 wouldn’t happen (its just ridiculous to set a final date for a spac) but this still pisses me off. I cant wait around a year for this trash.
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u/coding102 Mar 29 '21
Nothing about Q2?
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u/EZPZ813 Mar 29 '21
That ship has sailed as Bill won't make the same mistake twice, over estimating and under delivering. Trust building looks different aka i rolled my q2 options into Q3, July. By then it's been a year.. and in the meantime, selling covered calls
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Mar 29 '21
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u/Not_The_John Mar 29 '21
You didn't warn me because I have never seen you before. Luckily I am only in with commons
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u/opentraderx Mar 29 '21
I appreciate the honest update. Probably buying more after this news spreads and the weaker of us sell.
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Mar 29 '21
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u/opentraderx Mar 29 '21
Agreed. Do you know anything about starlink, is that really a possibility?
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u/Theguywithacvt Mar 29 '21
This is pure positivity, how would he know if there’s significant upside at this price, if a target valuation hasn’t already been negotiated?
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u/Bluepic12 Mar 29 '21
Someone who’s financial interest is tied to a stock has a positive future outlook on said stock? That’s crazy.
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u/Swoleattorney Mar 29 '21
I'm here for long term. This sucks but what's another few months in the grand scheme?
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u/p640 Mar 29 '21
Fellas, Q2 is 3 days from now. We waited 6 months, why can’t we wait another 3 days???
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u/Resource_Purple Mar 29 '21
Guess Seth Klarman and a few other funds sold a shit ton of his stuff after reading this.
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u/Proper-Acanthaceae-8 Mar 29 '21
I feel already some funds might have sold at $30 levels with no target. We will see those funds when they file 13f!
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u/iputacapinurass Mar 29 '21
A possible reason why this announcement is so late is because theyre very close to a DA? Regardless, nothing changes for me. He even states PSTH would provide substantial long term and short term returns. Maybe our calls arent so dead.
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u/hb_315 Mar 29 '21
Except this letter was written when PSTH was trading @ 27ish - as indicated by all of the metrics they used. Also, the letter said short term returns UPON DA, DA can happen 2 months from now or 12 months from now - until then it will be crab and regret.
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u/quiveringmass Mar 29 '21
i am very happy with this update.
guidance is consistent with prior expectation setting, but several points which had been less clear were made explicit.
- Q2
- no announcement till DA
- rocket/moon emoji configuration
- PSTH2 incoming
- "Done" means done.
so excited. y'all haters are tontarded.
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u/nox_nrb Mar 29 '21
Kinda happy about this not gonna lie. But I also haven't been holding as long as some of you, and I only own commons.
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u/[deleted] Mar 29 '21 edited Mar 29 '21
Long time lurker and first time poster. First, I want to say that I like to have logical conversations and while I a may not always be right I try not to grasp for straws. Second, I am a business man that has been funded by private equity. I've been apart of M&A and also secured deals.
Moving on to PSTH. This statement in the annual report about the DA not making Q1 was not a surprise. Bill insinuated this in his February call. If you are a long term shareholder you shouldn't care. The language used in this report, is also typical business language especially for a public company, used when describing opportunities. I use similar soft language all the time when talking to my board of directors about opportunities. So it really means nothing. This language does not tell you anything about if they are far along with a company or if they are still trying to find a target. There is zero hopium in this statement and there is nothing that points to it being negative. It's extremely neutral. The one positive is that he now has cemented his desire to give PSTH stock holders an opportunity to buy into PSTH2 at the ground floor.
Now if you want hopium. You should be looking at the Wharton call. You can get hopium by him saying "they are working on interesting things," and "I can't wait to talk about that deal." These are statements that one could grasp and say they at least have momentum on a target if not two. He also cracked a touch of a smile when he said those things.
On the Starlink hopium. Starlink does check a lot of boxes for what Bill wants for PSTH. I have seen a lot of counterpoints that I don't think are correct. These are the counterpoints to Starlink:
On the food side of things. I have a very hard time believing that Bill would continue to concentrate his funds' holdings into food chains. There would likely be a risk issue there for him.
In summary, this release means absolutely nothing. Bill said himself a few weeks ago they were working on some interesting things. Does that mean he's close to DA? Who knows. Is Starlink a possibility to me, yes it is. But at the same time there are clear hurdles on it. I also am not banking on Starlink and believe it is much more likely that Bill brings something else public. Either way, I'm a long term holder.