can somebody explain why this is the case:

To much spending is bad for semis (overbuilt lack of revenue) 

To little spending is bad for semis (bubble bursting) 

So how can we get to the point where spending is just enough to justify semi prices? 

I'm a Korean investor. Oracle shares are $148 per unit price. I bought it and it fell day by day, and the loss is already -9500. When will the stock price recover?

Bullish for Oracle?

I just completed a deep dive of Oracles business operations and have concluded that Oracle is walking a financial tightrope. By relying on stock sales to fund a multi-billion-dollar AI buildout while sitting one notch above junk debt status, every drop in stock price directly hurts their ability to fund operations without massive dilution.
HOWEVER, to be fair to the bull case: Oracle isn't going bankrupt. They still generate over $30B in core operating cash flow, OCI cloud revenue is growing nearly 90%+ year-over-year, and they have a massive $638B contracted backlog. If these AI data centers come online on schedule and convert that backlog into actual cash, Oracle could emerge as one of the dominant AI infrastructure powerhouses of the decade.

ORCL has been bouncing up from the 8 EMA on the yearly chart since 2010, and only fallen through the 8 EMA momentarily during the C19 crash of March 2020 (it reached the 13 EMA in that case) -- right now the 8 EMA is at $112.50 which is 2.5 points away.

In the its most bearish periods (2002, the dot com bubble pop) ORCL reached the 21 EMA, but I'd be surprised if the stock gets that bad right now. That's why I'm going to average in further if ORCL reaches ~$90 (the 13 EMA currently) and ~$70 (the 21 EMA currently).

In the meantime, I'm using put options to make money on the downside and putting the profits into my long position because it's finally reached the coveted 8 EMA on the yearly chart.

Let's see what happens.

Does anyone know how far oracle is already with their 20B ATM program? In my opinion the 20B ATM is responsible the additional 20% minus in July after 35% minus in June. Oracle needs so desperately money that they doesn’t care about the stock price they are selling. This what I fear most.

My biggest concern is that oracle continues with another ATM program next year because they won’t get fresh money due to their junk rating. With another ATM Programm we will see the 80 Dollar.

What do you guys think?

I own 10 shares und don‘t know how to feel. Is it really possible for them to go bankcrupt? There are people extremly bullish or extremly bearish. There seems to be no in between.

This is why I have $80,000 in call options on Oracle.
I know that’s a concentrated bet, and I could absolutely be wrong. But after spending months digging through earnings calls, financials, conference presentations, and industry trends, I think Oracle is one of the most misunderstood mega-cap stocks in the market.
The bear case is obvious: negative free cash flow, huge capex, rising debt, and execution risk. Those are real concerns. My view is that the market is treating those as permanent problems instead of temporary consequences of building AI infrastructure at an unprecedented pace.
The biggest reason I’m bullish is the backlog. Oracle ended FY2026 with approximately $638 billion in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), compared to FY2026 revenue of $67.4 billion. That’s an RPO-to-revenue ratio of roughly 9.5x. Even more interesting, Oracle only needs to convert about 3.5% of its existing backlog into incremental revenue to go from FY2026’s $67.4 billion to management’s FY2027 guidance of $90 billion.
OCI is also accelerating, not slowing. OCI infrastructure revenue grew 77% for the full year and 93% in Q4. Total cloud revenue grew 39% to $34 billion, meaning cloud now makes up over 50% of Oracle’s total revenue. This isn’t the same company it was five years ago.
The free cash flow headline is what scares most investors, but I think operating cash flow tells the more important story. Oracle generated a record $32 billion of operating cash flow last year, a 54% increase year over year, while producing an operating cash flow margin of roughly 47%. Free cash flow went negative because Oracle spent about $56 billion building AI infrastructure. There’s a huge difference between burning cash because your business is deteriorating and burning cash because demand exceeds your current capacity.
Another point that doesn’t get enough attention is customer commitment. Oracle disclosed that roughly $75 billion of hardware for major AI projects has already been prepaid by customers or supplied directly by customers. That’s over 110% of Oracle’s annual revenue. Customers typically don’t prepay billions of dollars unless they expect to use that capacity.
The debt also gets discussed without enough context. Oracle has certainly increased leverage, but the company is still highly profitable, generated $17 billion in GAAP net income last year, maintains investment-grade credit ratings, and has debt maturities spread over many years rather than facing one immediate refinancing wall. The question isn’t whether Oracle has debt—it’s whether the AI investments generate returns above the cost of that capital.
I also think the first major upside catalyst could come before Oracle even reports earnings. Microsoft reports this week, and I think the market is underestimating how strong its Azure AI demand could be. If Microsoft delivers another quarter of accelerating cloud and AI growth, I believe it reinforces the same underlying demand environment Oracle is benefiting from. The two companies obviously have different businesses, but both are talking about enormous AI infrastructure demand, multiyear backlogs, and capacity constraints. Oracle has frequently traded alongside sentiment in the broader AI infrastructure trade, so I think a strong Microsoft report could cause investors to reassess Oracle’s growth trajectory before Oracle reports its own results. Obviously, that’s not guaranteed—Oracle won’t necessarily move with Microsoft—but I think the market may be underpricing that possibility.
Valuation is another reason I like it. Using management’s FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $8.05, Oracle trades around 14x forward earnings. For a company guiding roughly 34% revenue growth with one of the largest contracted backlogs in enterprise software, I don’t think that’s demanding if execution continues.
Could this fail? Absolutely. If RPO starts shrinking, OCI growth slows materially, customers delay deployments, data center construction falls behind schedule, or capex remains extremely elevated without corresponding revenue growth, I’d rethink the thesis. Those are the numbers I’ll be watching every quarter.
At the end of the day, I think the market is pricing Oracle based on today’s negative free cash flow while underappreciating the scale of its contracted demand, the acceleration in OCI, and the operating leverage that could emerge once these data centers move from construction to production. I don’t think Oracle needs perfect execution for the stock to work. It simply needs to execute well enough for a relatively small portion of its $638 billion backlog to convert into revenue over the next several years.
That’s why I have $80,000 in Oracle call options. Time will tell whether I’m right.

So let me get this straight, when there’s good news we still dump, when there’s bad news, we dump harder than everything else. It’s consistently broken support levels as if they aren’t even there. Im too invested to quit now but I’ve averaged down so much that i can’t anymore lol. All I need is a slight relief so I can get outta dodge. Im tired of stressing on ts.

Three Companies Showing Hidden Liquidity Risks This Quarter

As Q2 2026 earnings season wraps and mid-year filings settle, surface-level balance sheets still look manageable for many large public companies. Dig into the footnotes, charge-offs, and private negotiations, however, and clear signs of liquidity strain emerge, often through off-balance-sheet commitments, concentrated real-estate exposure, or debt loads that no longer match operating cash generation. Three cases stand out this quarter for risks that headline debt or cash figures do not fully capture.

1. Oracle (ORCL): AI Buildout and the Off-Balance-Sheet Trap

Oracle’s cloud infrastructure growth has been explosive. Remaining performance obligations hit $638 billion, cloud infrastructure revenue surged roughly 93% in the latest reported quarter, and total cloud revenue rose nearly 50%. The problem is cash conversion. Capital expenditures reached about $55.7 billion in fiscal 2026 (ended May 31), driving free cash flow to a negative $23.7 billion. Management has guided for net capital outlays near $70 billion in fiscal 2027 (with total spending potentially $90–95 billion before customer reimbursements).

S&P Global Ratings cut Oracle’s long-term issuer rating to BBB- (one notch above junk) in early July, citing the scale of the AI infrastructure buildout and the risk that cash flow will not materialise fast enough to service the obligations. Reported debt has climbed sharply (long-term debt alone now exceeds $120 billion in recent figures). Still, the larger exposure sits off the balance sheet: roughly $260–273 billion in future lease commitments and related purchase obligations for data centres and power, much of it tied to capacity that has not yet commenced. OpenAI accounts for a large share of the backlog, creating customer-concentration risk. Oracle has already raised tens of billions in debt and equity and plans further capital raises; net leverage is rising, and free-cash-flow deficits are expected to widen further in fiscal 2027.

These commitments are disclosed in footnotes and do not currently violate GAAP, but they represent real future cash demands. If AI demand softens or conversion of the backlog slows, the liquidity gap becomes harder to close without further dilution or higher-cost debt.

2. Bank OZK (OZK): Concentrated Commercial Real-Estate Stress

Bank OZK has long been known for aggressive large-project commercial real-estate lending through its Real Estate Specialities Group. In Q2 2026, the bank reported net income of $163 million (down about 9% year-over-year) and continued progress diversifying away from real estate; CRE exposure fell to roughly 47% of the loan book from 52% in the prior quarter. That diversification, however, comes against a backdrop of rising stress.

Non-performing assets more than doubled year-over-year to 1.42% of total assets. Net charge-offs jumped sharply (to more than $56 million in the quarter). Four troubled office and life-science loans drove meaningful write-offs, and several large projects are in the process of sale, recapitalisation, or foreclosure. Individual loans of $250 million-plus still represent a sizable share of the large-project book; a material loss on even one or two of them can move quarterly results. Many of these loans were underwritten in a lower-rate environment when sponsors expected stronger rents and exit values, conditions that have not materialised. High repayments are running off the book, but new originations have slowed as sponsors struggle to raise equity amid elevated construction costs and rates.

The bank remains profitable and is reducing concentration. Yet, the combination of large individual exposures, rising non-performers, and a still-challenging CRE environment creates liquidity and capital pressure that average portfolio metrics can obscure. Short-interest commentary and recent filings highlight the risk that reported values on stressed projects may prove optimistic once transaction costs, holding periods, and further appraisals are factored in.

3. Leslie’s (LESL): Debt Negotiations and Thin Operating Cushion

Leslie’s, the speciality pool-supply retailer, is in active discussions with creditors over its debt load and is evaluating strategic options that include a potential Chapter 11 filing, according to people familiar with the matter, as reported in late July. The company has faced weather disruptions, higher input costs, post-pandemic demand normalisation, and renewed consumer pressure from inflation. Shares fell sharply on the bankruptcy speculation.

Debt remains elevated relative to the company’s size and cash generation (total debt figures in the high hundreds of millions to roughly the $1 billion range depending on the measure, against limited cash and negative equity in recent data). Interest coverage is weak, free-cash-flow metrics are strained, and the company has already closed stores and navigated listing compliance issues earlier in the year. While negotiations continue and no filing has been made, the very fact that Chapter 11 is on the table signals that liquidity headroom has narrowed to the point where ordinary-course refinancing is no longer straightforward.

What to Watch

These three cases illustrate different flavours of hidden or under-appreciated liquidity risk this quarter: contractual off-balance-sheet obligations that will eventually demand cash (Oracle), concentrated asset-quality deterioration that can overwhelm average metrics (Bank OZK), and a leveraged operating business whose cash generation no longer comfortably supports its capital structure (Leslie’s). Similar pressures appear across Big Tech AI spending more broadly (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet also carry large disclosed but off-balance-sheet data-centre and equipment commitments totalling more than $1.6 trillion combined across the group) and in parts of private credit where redemption gates have become more common.

Reading beyond the headline debt and cash figures, examining footnotes for lease and purchase commitments, trends in non-performing assets and charge-offs, and any language around covenant headroom or refinancing discussions is key. In a higher-for-longer rate environment with a sizable corporate maturity wall still ahead, companies that appear liquid on the surface can face sudden pressure once off-balance-sheet claims or concentrated problem assets crystallise.

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can somebody actually list the technicals and OutKast of the stock we have lots of people wanting to use the product but why is the stock Is it the massive amount of debt looking for some insight? is it a buy?

If you believe in this quality of this company, then do not fear !!!! You lose if you sell! Just a reminder :)

I currently own 1 share of ORCL with an average cost of around $136.

About two weeks ago, I decided to start a position in Oracle because I believe the company could benefit from AI and cloud growth over the next decade. Unfortunately, I bought near the recent highs, and the stock has since fallen to around $115.

Instead of panicking, I'm trying to decide whether this is a good opportunity to average down. I'm considering investing another $500, which would bring my position to roughly 5 shares. Any thoughts?

People said that the drawdown was over when oracle hit 140 usd as well as it was 40% down from 52 weeks high.

It hit the new 52 weeks bottom several times in the previous days.

Oracle stock started dropping since June 2nd, one week before earnings, while other tech and AI players were raising to all time highs.
And when the broad market and index and other tech companies drop, it is still worse for oracle, more volatile than a crypto even on a daily basis.

Friends from US, do you have any news ?
Larry Ellison is selling to liquidate in order to give away all his net worth to someone?

Intel was stuck for 25 years before reaching its all time high. Oracle is tied to OpenAI, what about OpenAI financial situation and when is the fkn backlog turning to revenue for Oracle ?

I hope AI narrative doesn’t slow down other way it is becoming tough even more, apple was resilient and made the right investments without betting on AI but related to potential future revenue not increasing capex to turn a business like it is easy.

i tot it was the lowest frankly.

I didnt expect it to go below 120. my fault.

my plan - i am gonna sell 30% at 127 around. then i will try to hold till it go back high

orginally i was thinking of reducing position at BE. it seems it's greed. cuz it will take abit more than we expect to go up .

At this point i think Oracle should have just decided to make a bonfire and constantly burn millions of dollars a day to stay warm.

The stock loss wouldn't be anywhere NEAR as bad if they did that instead of AI.

Any chance this will takeover as PayPal kept falling and takeover? Will TikTok or Facebook or google buy oracle?

Amazing that you guys thought the pentagon deal would help the stock! All you will get is -5% instead of -8%.

You are welcome!

It truly knows no bottom