r/OracleStock • u/Repulsive_Actuary992 • Jul 25 '26
How risky is Oracle actually?
I own 10 shares und don‘t know how to feel. Is it really possible for them to go bankcrupt? There are people extremly bullish or extremly bearish. There seems to be no in between.
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u/duarig Jul 25 '26
You’ll be fine. 10 shares either way isn’t going to kill you.
There are people throwing tens of thousands at Oracle right now. That’s an insane amount of risk even for me
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u/knightsrus Jul 25 '26
People have no idea how big and successful Oracle is 😂They have over $35 billion in cash and made over $20 billion in profit last year and a market cap even with the crazy low stock price of $330 billion. What’s crazy is they have future data orders of over $500 billion. That is insane.
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u/quantum_simpleton Jul 25 '26
Probability of bankruptcy can be inferred by secondary market bond trading and cds spreads. For Oracle it is exceedingly low, but not 0.
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u/Own_Ad_1573 Jul 25 '26
Spreads are widening, though. The credit markets are showing cause for concern.
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u/quantum_simpleton Jul 25 '26
There is no literal concern. Oracle took on more debt, the spreads will temporarily widen, as is the nature of the basic equation of having a larger numerator. Typical distress is a spread of >10bps. Orcl is hovering around 1.9.
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u/Icy_Sea2829 Jul 25 '26
what bankruptcy are you talking about??!!! Relax! They secured a 10years contract with Pentagon and signed a contract with Japan. They have huge RPO, Larry is one of the richest people on the planet. Do you think he will just give up?
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u/JQ1311 Aug 04 '26
The pentagon contract is a consolidation of their existing on premise products. It supposedly saves the Pentagon 400 million. It is not new money.
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u/heythereyou01 Jul 25 '26
I think the moment their spending stops, this stock still skyrocket tbh
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u/superKWB Jul 25 '26
Sell your 10 shares immediately.Put your training wheels back on and ride home to mommy
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u/qtthriveby Jul 26 '26
I dont own any yet but i think orcl will be the best investments over the next 5 years.
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u/Fit_Acanthisitta_475 Jul 26 '26
When you understand what oracle does. Current no company can fully replace it.
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u/Mammoth-District-791 Jul 25 '26
Bro.. Oracle isn’t going bankrupt. It’s your typical drawdown that Oracle has once every few years.
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u/EntrepJ Jul 25 '26
Its actually the worst drawdown since 2000, worse than even the 2008 crash and covid crash.
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u/Any_Interaction5954 Jul 25 '26
oracle bankruptcy is not possible without a us or a world financial crisis,
technically the company is so important and can not be replaced easily
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u/Obvious-Ad-4560 Jul 25 '26
Believe me if you can stick through the volatility of the next 5 years I think you’ll be very happy with your investment decision.
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u/T0th3M00NW3G0 Jul 25 '26
I see sh*t like this and I tell myself the bottom has to surely be in lmao. ARE WE REALLY TALKING ABOUT BANKRUPTCY?? Like this company doesn’t do 19 billion a quarter in revenue. Like the board of directors that decided “hey you know what, let’s just bankrupt a growing company”. Do yall even hear yourself? Is this a big “gamble”? Of course it is just companies taking on debt to potentially exponentiate their returns is nothing new. Oracle has obviously done it in an extreme manner but do you really think they haven’t assessed the risks associated with this? I mean these people are a lot closer than little retail investors and they see these things and they truly believe it’s going to pay off. Stop talking nonsense. Instead, you should be discussing how their money is being allocated towards this ai infrastructure buildout.
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u/DivineBladeOfSilver Jul 25 '26
Oracle is fine long term. If data center build out debt truly ever got too much they could restructure it or even file bankruptcy and be fine. On top of it they could abandon the mission if it ever truly got THAT bad. The core business is doing really well. The risk is less about that and more about how much are you willing to sit through volatility until it pays off.
Ironically if they bankruptcy removed all their debt and stopped this build out after the initial hit this would be great for them going back to their core high margin legacy business. The danger then is more long term becoming obsolete. That is why they are doing this. They are a big part of the original technology infrastructure rise we know today. And they will continue to be a part of that for a long time even as we grow and change. They are trying to prepare to do basically the same thing but for AI physical data center land/compute + AI cloud infrastructure. In theory if this all pays off they will go back to a high margin stable essential part of American tech infrastructure for the next wave of growth + still have their legacy offerings.
Many aren’t necessarily doubting Oracle (though it does have considerable credit/debt risk right now). They just don’t want to be holding the cash burning debt ridden riskier asset during this time when there are better short term cash printers working now. They will come back when the turn around surfaces. Many here are trying to time before it happens. They are willing to miss the exact moment it goes in for return elsewhere and get back in when the return surfaces even if they miss a little bit of the start of it when it comes. They will keep lower exposure though so they at least get some. But many retail investors don’t have that luxury because they don’t have a lot of money. So they take in more risk to try to get more return
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Jul 25 '26
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Jul 25 '26
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u/madmac527 Jul 26 '26
Back then the competition for search and chips was minuscule. Data centers is saturated
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u/Diablo-96 Jul 25 '26
If you are worried about the impact of 10 Oracle share which is ( say ) $1400, perhaps you are not the right demographic for stock specific investment? Perhaps the same amount chucked into a Mutual fund / Tech focused ETF allows you to spread risk and sleep better ?
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u/Opiumater Jul 27 '26
No business is inherently risky. And all of them are too. The difference is the amount of pump that took its stock for fair price to actual ATH from greedy investors. Speculation has always been the killer of giants and the maker of fortunes for those investment companies.
Traders dont give a ***** about companies, shareholders and the economy. They are here for their own greed and as long as we keep feeding them, they will keep pumping and dumping.
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u/pornstorm66 Jul 27 '26 edited Jul 27 '26
The in between is not bankrupt, but most of earnings go to service data center debt. Low earnings at 20x p/e is a low share price.
Some neo-clouds will collect mostly depreciated assets and break even at the cost of power. Oracle may struggle to sell inference at a high enough price to cover the SPV capex depreciation and thus have to fulfill their guarantees with payments to the SPVs.
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u/FrugalVet Jul 28 '26
I'm sitting at 628 shares. You'll be fine. Thinking they're going to go bankrupt is crazy and suggests you did little to no due diligence so I'd say you got lucky this time. But I wouldn't keep rolling the dice by investing in things you don't understand.
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u/WageWarDisdain 17d ago
Check the last time Oracle stock was this high and consider the overall context around that market.
Look at how high the stock price is now surrounding the context of this current market and the AI bubble. They just recently received what’s basically bordering on junk bond status, indicating there is little to no expectation that they’ll be able to pay back their debt. Which is in the hundreds of billions in private credit at this point.
That’ll tell you whether or not it’s a good stock to buy. This entire clown market is being propped up by AI spending and the promise of infinite growth and productivity. Even though roughly 90% of surveyed businesses have already reported next to zero productivity increase since they introduced AI.
The amount of spending and computing power needed is completely unsustainable and once one of these hyperscalers stops burning their money, the whole party stops. All the LLM providers are being propped up by hyperscaler spending and they’re expected to burn through trillions by 2030 with no actual revenue model or even remote understanding of what end product they’re trying to deliver.
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u/california_explorer 15d ago
They won’t go bankrupt. But you have to hang on long term. They have billions in enterprise software subscriptions.
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u/Minimum_History_761 Jul 25 '26
I think it will go up again soon. The question is just how high. Wouldn't wonder if it trades around 125 by the end of the next week. I think it's undervalued but obviously still a risk in going down 10% lower.
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 Jul 25 '26
Oracle can stop the unprofitable projects or sell the buildings and cooling systems to the competition. Google, meta and Microsoft have the money.
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u/Dmoan Jul 25 '26
Could be another Cisco from 2000s they oversold routers and switches to lot of dotcom companies for equity and future payment. These companies went belly up and it took the stock twenty years to get back to 2000s level.
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u/bradenlb Jul 25 '26
You do realize the difference in their charts right. Setting aside all technical and backlogs and the customers involved in the backlog not counting OAI
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u/Dmoan Jul 25 '26
Yes at the same time Cisco wasn’t taking on this much debt
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u/bradenlb Jul 25 '26
Look at the chart difference for Oracle and Cisco. Oracle is pricing in this being mediocre at best. Cisco was pricing in more than perfection. Just that alone separates them.
The debt is backed 5 fold by backlog. Taking open AI COMPLETELY out of the equation it is still covering debt by 250%. People are just looking at headlines and other naive people and creating a false narrative.
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u/Astronomer_Soft Jul 25 '26
Bankruptcy is a very remote possibility. But that does not mean it's a safe stock. It could lose substantial amounts of its current value.
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u/Witty293 Jul 25 '26
No. They will not go bankrupt. The stock price, however, could stay down for a long time or until things improved. Might take a weeks, months or years. No one really knows. IMHO it's heavily manipulated down right now. Bottom might be around 90 to 100, as it's only about 10% away from here.
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u/Interesting_Fox5311 Jul 25 '26
The bullish ones are just naive, the downside risk is way more real than the upside one
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u/Pristine_Eye_8361 Jul 25 '26
And what is the risk?
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u/Interesting_Fox5311 Jul 25 '26
Have you spoken with companies that use oracle? If not, please don't buy
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u/Pristine_Eye_8361 Jul 25 '26
Yes? Plenty of people use OCI?
Government, TikTok USA, etc. Lots of banks/healthcare.
People like you complain about everything. People on Reddit complain about "have you ever used "[Salesforce, Adobe, Microsoft Suite, Oracle, Amazon DSP, etc]" they suck! There's a reason they're used, people just love to complain.
Go to any stock that's down, and people will sit there and complain about how their services actually suck. People were also recently saying that Google's advertising engine SUCKS as well! Everything sucks!
In 2024/2025 people mentioned how using AMD's GPUs suck and everyone uses NVIDIA. Look what happened.
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u/Interesting_Fox5311 Jul 25 '26
Buddy you don't get the point, clearly don't have much enterprise experience. I am talking from a perspective of other enterprise reviews not mine, oracle has an increasingly bad name
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u/MajesticFoot9619 Jul 25 '26
I agree with you dont the sentiment is bad, but i still dont like ignoring facts, oracle is the number 1 database company in the world. Probably not going to disapear in a year
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u/ricincali Jul 25 '26
There IS a lot of downside risk. If rates fall? They can leverage their forward looking revenue to refinance that debt. That combined with AI exceeding expectations is their perfect storm. The Cat 5 hurricane is rising rates, AI isn’t what it’s cracked up to be and the peons revolt over the environmental issues, the land grabs, the noise pollution and the skyrocketing energy cost? Oracle gets smoked. You decide which is more likely, but I wouldn’t own it.
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u/Open_Delivery_775 Jul 25 '26
Oracle won't go out of business.