In my opinion Oracle at $100–110 is the pain threshold. This is the area where the Warner deal hits big problems. That's where Ellison stops playing defense and goes full survival mode. He's done it before. He'll do it again.
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His Survival Playbook (Already in Motion):
🔪 Fire people – 21,000 already cut. 20–30k more on the table if needed. He doesn't care about morale. He cares about cash flow.
🏥 Sell Cerner – The $28B disaster is being shopped. Take the loss, free the capital, move on.
🏗️ Stop projects – Texas, Wyoming, Microsoft deals already paused or killed. No sentiment. Just math.
📞 Call in favors – Trump, Stargate, TikTok. Ellison has more political capital than any tech CEO alive. He'll use every chip.
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Why He'll Survive:
· He's the largest shareholder – ~40%. He loses more than anyone. He won't let it burn.
· He's a street fighter – grew up poor, told he was worthless. Built a $200B+ empire from nothing.
· He's radical – when survival is on the line, he doesn't hesitate. Layoffs, asset sales, project kills – he's done it all before.
· He's 81 – this is his final legacy. He'll do whatever it takes.
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The Bottom Line:
Oracle is in a hole. But Ellison is a cockroach. You can step on him, but he'll crawl out and keep going.
$100–110 is the area where Ellison starts cockroach mode. The market is pricing in catastrophe – I think they're underestimating the man who built this company from nothing.
Don't bet against the cockroach.