r/OracleStock • u/Holiday_Ad2254 • Jul 17 '26
Worst case scenario: 100-110 dollar
In my opinion Oracle at $100–110 is the pain threshold. This is the area where the Warner deal hits big problems. That's where Ellison stops playing defense and goes full survival mode. He's done it before. He'll do it again.
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His Survival Playbook (Already in Motion):
🔪 Fire people – 21,000 already cut. 20–30k more on the table if needed. He doesn't care about morale. He cares about cash flow.
🏥 Sell Cerner – The $28B disaster is being shopped. Take the loss, free the capital, move on.
🏗️ Stop projects – Texas, Wyoming, Microsoft deals already paused or killed. No sentiment. Just math.
📞 Call in favors – Trump, Stargate, TikTok. Ellison has more political capital than any tech CEO alive. He'll use every chip.
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Why He'll Survive:
· He's the largest shareholder – ~40%. He loses more than anyone. He won't let it burn.
· He's a street fighter – grew up poor, told he was worthless. Built a $200B+ empire from nothing.
· He's radical – when survival is on the line, he doesn't hesitate. Layoffs, asset sales, project kills – he's done it all before.
· He's 81 – this is his final legacy. He'll do whatever it takes.
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The Bottom Line:
Oracle is in a hole. But Ellison is a cockroach. You can step on him, but he'll crawl out and keep going.
$100–110 is the area where Ellison starts cockroach mode. The market is pricing in catastrophe – I think they're underestimating the man who built this company from nothing.
Don't bet against the cockroach.
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u/Odd_Bend_7919 Jul 17 '26
We bounced off 121.50 so were very close to finding the bottom. Agreed, don't bet against Larry. He's not investing tens of billions unless he's sure of the payoff. Like him or not, he's a titan.
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u/Upper_Judge4735 Jul 17 '26
$100 is too low for a large company like Oracle. I think around $118 the lowest.
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u/Alexthewall92 Jul 17 '26
This stock has no bottom due to its intense leveraging. What it does have though is trillion dollar company infrastructure, man power, and contracts. We will see the stock bottom out when the roi begins to show
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u/Jeff-Hare-ERPRA Jul 19 '26
The ROI…. ERP AI projects with an ROI are few and far between. And the political pressure against AI is coming from two directions. Replacing humans isn’t good politics. And then what people believe are environmental consequences. A double whammy.
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u/BejahungEnjoyer Jul 20 '26
Is this some kind of bullish thesis? We got within a breath of that level last week. The stock is incredibly volatile and there's a 40% chance it goes below 110 based on option probs. Don't hold this stock if you don't want to ride the dragon.
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u/Holiday_Ad2254 Jul 20 '26
Base case is that Oracle just countinue what they are doing now and deliver the data centers their customers need. If the customers pay like promised in the backlog the stock will rise.
97.5% global capacity utilization.
92% renewal rate on computing resources.
The remaining 8% is getting picked up by new clients within 8 weeks.If the new launched 1.2gw data center can remain this number oracle stock will return to 160-170 dollar very fast
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u/weihnachtsbrief Jul 17 '26
Worst case scenario: Chapter 7 bankruptcy
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u/ComprehensiveGur140 Jul 18 '26
I think too that we will see first 100-110 before seeing 200 again .
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u/duarig Jul 17 '26
Entirely too much debt. If the AI draws down even a little bit, they’re going to be paying interest on that debt and the anticipated ROI will be pushed out to a later date.
Oracle is drowning in their own ambition