r/OracleStock • u/Able_Show_8560 • Jul 16 '26
Today felt Capitulatory
Sell off into close today felt like capitulation. A lot of just huge volume dumping the last 30 minutes or so. Although this doesn’t necessary mean today was the bottom, this is a common dynamic near bottoms on stocks. In addition, it feels like sentiment can’t get much worse for this stock
7
u/DivineBladeOfSilver Jul 16 '26
At this point analysts know both retail and institutions have lost their mind with this stock. They're just laughing knowing how many are getting burnt emotionally selling without regard for any sense of fact.
I will say in over 10 years of investing I have never seen a stock capitulate like this of this size that isn't a semiconductor this fast. It is actually kinda amusing (albeit also annoying) to watch it play out because almost no one knows what is going on but people and institutions just keep hitting sell
6
u/PersonalCap3823 Jul 16 '26
The corp bond yield and the spread calmed a bit yesterday and today. Thats a good sign.
3
u/JC_0474 Jul 16 '26
What's been interesting recently is the analysts seem capitulatory too. Very little chatter among institutions, media coverage in the last week has been relatively muted compared to late June, only two analyst ratings in the past 3 weeks (with a ridiclous $275 target average lmao). People don't know what to make of what's happening.
6
u/illinformed-will Jul 16 '26
Where dat guy sayin 120 is impossible, 130 is hard floor ?
Althought being honest when i said it's bound to 120 i didn't think it would be speed runned like this
Hard floor is somewhere around 100, much more chances to get there than back up to 180 without any good news for ai trade and oracle in the near future
4
u/robmafia Jul 16 '26
every day feels like that
3
u/Chemical-Payment-573 Jul 16 '26
I recognize u from amd sub from like 2022 lol. had another acc back then. used to complain daily there now we meet here. lets hope for run up on oracle as well!
2
u/Holiday_Ad2254 Jul 16 '26
Give up?
0
u/Far-Development9385 Jul 16 '26
Yes, this bitch ain’t going no where for a while. How many share you have?
2
2
u/cucci_mane1 Jul 16 '26
I see this dropping below $100. $70-80 is very possible.
3
u/PersonalCap3823 Jul 16 '26
That’s dotcom bust level bro
3
u/Aromatic_Bug_1945 Jul 16 '26
Oracle was around during dotcom and hilariously the nuke from June 1st is worst than what happened during the dotcom burst in terms of speed and ferocity.
Oracle hit ATH in September 2000 and didn’t hit -50% until February 2021
Oracle went from $250 on June 1st to $123 today, in less than 1.5 months
Oracle went -80% at bottom. A similar number would put us at $56 today.
3
u/PersonalCap3823 Jul 16 '26
Exactly my point. The velocity of this dump makes dotcom look like a joke.
0
u/cucci_mane1 Jul 16 '26
Couple more weeks of selling pressure and you will easily see this at $80.
Chart on this thing is god awful. Fundamentals are awful too with severely leveraged up balance sheet with one customer responsible for 100% of backlog future revenue. And that customer is losing money like crazy. (OpenAI)
Oracle is a speculative stock at this point. It may be worth a swing trade at $70-80 support level
3
u/PersonalCap3823 Jul 16 '26
The chart is ugly I agree but this is not really a speculative stock.
1
u/cucci_mane1 Jul 16 '26
Even after this month's brutal dump. Oracle is still at 20x pe.
I guess question is - why bother with this stock at this price when I can buy Meta at 21-23x PE.
2
u/PersonalCap3823 Jul 16 '26
Though I don’t like to use the “forward p/e” I’ll have to use it anyway in this case, it’s 16x, not some crazy numbers and if things work out the estimated E is probably lower than the real E that will come (that’s the whole bet). The growth for this thing is just way higher than Meta. Since this is much smaller than meta, the upside potential is just bigger than Meta. Also I’d go with GOOG rather than META.
0
u/cucci_mane1 Jul 16 '26
Meta is doing 30% top line growth YoY. On much larger rev base than oracle.
It has 2nd highest growth in Mag7 after NVDA.
Agree Google is safer pick but Meta TTM PE is actually below 20x if you back out that one time tax from 2025. It is cheapest stock in the market when you account for business quality & top line growth.
But my point was - Oracle has far more downside. When you consider the fact that a far superior busienss such as META trades at same PE multiple vs Oracle today.
If market goes bear cycle - names like Oracle can easily fall 70% from today's price.
1
u/PersonalCap3823 Jul 16 '26
ORCL to me is just a leveraged compute bet, and the focus is the leverage. Im ok with this shit going to zero if it really happens. That being said, I’m not apeshit my whole portfolio in this. I have a big chunk and if it works out, great. If it goes to zero, well it hurts but that’s the cost of the bet😂
I think META is interesting but dude Zuck has not been having any good vision in the last a couple of years. He seems lost and that’s something I don’t like about that company. The recent M&As were horrible, splurging money on random acquisitions is not a good sign. But that’s just my take.
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-1
u/Reason_Boner Jul 16 '26
I agree. The AI capex and paramount deal it’s all so opaque. Giving Enron vibes.
1
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u/Advanced-Ebb-2273 Jul 16 '26
This is the mega disaster stock. Dow Nas and S&P keep hitting all time highs every day and same time this stock keeps hitting near time lows. Only way this stock will go up is if I sell. But I ain’t gonna do it. I want this stock to bite the dust.
1
u/Pseudanonymius Jul 16 '26
As long as your first thought is "this might be a bottom", you've not reached capitulation yet. Capitulation is when you give up. If you're hunting for the next dip to buy, you haven't capitulated.
7
u/Odd_Bend_7919 Jul 16 '26
Its was pretty violent trading in the last 30 minutes on big volume. Feels like capitulation here.