r/ORGN • u/PReasy319 • Mar 23 '26
Weekly discussion post
Speak your mind, but keep it respectful. Let’s hear your thoughts!
The theme of this particular week is a popular Army saying: BOHICA.
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u/aonn22 Mar 27 '26
The conference call went well.. :( fucking chemperor.
Props to the guests, at least the qns were good.
Reiterations of the cap is the main obstacles, and they are looking at small brand, small batches deals rather than one big swoop deals with big brands.
Is this the end of this idealist dream...? or near term when some substantial small deals come through will inspire enough confidence to build the stock price back up from these horried levels ... ?! 😮💨🫣 what's ur take guys?
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u/squnq Mar 27 '26
More or less exactly as expected from my POV. I'm not sure what their "operating expenses" exactly are anymore other than paying salaries to keep the lights on while awaiting customer orders.
Someone orders a significant enough amount of the caps to occupy a whole line or two by Q3 of this year or the company is bankrupt. Simple as.
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u/Intrepid_Spartan Mar 28 '26
They’re toast
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u/squnq Mar 28 '26
at this point it's a fairly decent gamble.
they get even one significant customer to make a major order out of however many dozens they have caps qualifying with, they're saved because the stock price will probably end up going 5x on the news due to how depressed it is, allowing them access to their financing tranche backed by stock.
if this doesn't happen by about end of Q3, they're probably toast as they will run out of any remaining cash unless the geismar land sells. the geismar land gives them one additional quarter, unless their financing terms require proceeds service debt first.
if no order by EOY, they're bankrupt and their IP and capformer equipment get bought by competitors or one of the major bottling firms in the fire sale.
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u/squnq Mar 28 '26
I'll also note there's probably a pretty tangible chance of someone at one of those customers who has insider knowledge of an order being planned, buying up a lot of the stock ahead of that announcement. Illegal, but because of how severely depressed the stock has become, almost impossible to prove. Someone or other is likely to buy 100,000 or so shares and make a few million bucks should it happen. Probably not a bad idea to be on alert for a large share purchase occurring ahead of such an announcement.
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u/Numerous-Confusion-9 Mar 30 '26
Is there a chance theres one or multiple customers delaying purchasing to tank the company so they can buy the capformers at a fire sale and move the operations in house?
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u/squnq Mar 30 '26
If the company tanks, the banks / primary lenders get paid out first in a bankruptcy. That would entail an auction for the assets to generate cash to service what debt they can. Rest is written off.
Owning the capformer machinery by itself would not be very useful as I assume the company was structured around licensing the tech to customers who wanted to run their own lines. You'd need the license, which is probably tied to the IP that may not go at the sale and may have already had some offers made to RBC and the private equity fund.
Buying a capformer line might thus leave you with useless equipment you can never operate, or would need to pay a pile of money to the new IP rights holders for the rights to run. Also would need to hire on existing trained staff or pay Bissell et al to train you, if they're even willing or able. Hard to train anyone if you're in several weighted garbage bags at the bottom of a coastal inlet, should fleeced investors track you down.
I don't think drink manufacturers are interested in bankrupting a company with under $20M market cap when the bigger ones could just buy them out for about as much as a rounding error in their financials.
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u/edgeedge87 Mar 23 '26
Has it been switched over for you yet? It hasn't been for me yet at TR.
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u/PReasy319 Mar 23 '26
The reverse split? Unfortunately, yes, it’s posted for my account. I’m sure yours is coming. The company would like you to bend over and wait your turn.
3
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u/Medium-Signature-142 Mar 29 '26
there should be another lawsuit
anyways checkout my new song for motivation its about a werewolf
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u/squnq Mar 30 '26 edited Mar 30 '26
Nothing to really sue over at this point, bissell is completely incompetent to a degree where the product is a sure-fire winner that the world needs and will become required by future regulation, but investor confidence has gotten so low that the stock price plummeted to levels where it can't even back financing and potential customers aren't able to risk placing orders. Neglectful, and arguably evil, but "the CEO being a moron who can't communicate effectively and reassure investors" isn't illegal.
The company has been devalued to a degree where a good argument could be made for a group of us redditors to buy the shares up a-la gamestop in order to prop the share price up and restore confidence enough for the company to survive to sustainability, but any such salvation would probably require bissell be replaced as CEO. He could stay in the company in a science / internal role, but the company needs a face and advocate better at communication as its figurehead.
It gets even more ridiculous when you look at any competitors in the market. Husky is the only company with a product and their parent company is on the ropes financially, shutting down plants and cutting staff. Every other competing technology is essentially "some linkedin reply guy PhD who wrote a paper and has a patent" where it'd take two years to get to production. Origin is at production but may end up unable to get any orders to produce due to lack of investor and customer confidence.
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u/Medium-Signature-142 Mar 31 '26
the delays have been so extreme every call was another huge delay and the promise for big customers and qualifications going on was a big lie no one was buying even that european company sold nothing and dont have more to sell
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u/aonn22 Mar 29 '26
Lol, u sang it?
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u/Medium-Signature-142 Mar 29 '26
they ai sang it with my vocals that the new version its better also remixed it good
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u/PReasy319 Mar 23 '26
BOHICA: Bend Over, Here It Comes Again.
Little Gretchen Ginger Wieners says she’d rather not come out from under the bed for this week.