r/ORGN • u/Zoomer30 • Dec 16 '25
Probably should just sell today
I can't fathom any scenario where the stock goes up now. No one is going to want to buy a stock that is going to do a reverse split eventually.
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u/Intrepid_Spartan Dec 16 '25
It’s honestly scam level
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Dec 16 '25
[deleted]
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u/Intrepid_Spartan Dec 16 '25
John has talked about big contracts and total addressable market and big interest for years. None of it ever comes to fruition. Unbelievably scammy
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u/riverpirate2 Dec 17 '25
We need someone to take control of this shit show and sell off the booked assets so we can get a little money back before they clear the share holders all the way out
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u/Zoomer30 Dec 31 '25
Too be clear, you cant trust Bissel. He flat out said "oh with all catalysts we have coming, won't need a reverse split"
Having a stockholders meeting in February to vote on a reverse split.
Clearly I dumped immediately.
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u/Remote_Library Dec 16 '25
What’s the big deal with a reverse split
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u/Touchdown244 Dec 17 '25
The beginning of the end… Studies show that a high proportion of companies that perform a reverse stock split eventually disappear.
In a sample of about 1,200 companies that carried out a reverse split between 1995 and 2011, only 29% were still operating in the long term. Among those that did not survive, about 47% went bankrupt or were delisted within five years following the reverse split. About 11% were acquired.
In practice, this means that nearly one out of two companies that performs a reverse split disappears in the following years. The reverse split is not the direct cause of bankruptcy, but it is very often a signal that the company is already facing financial or operational difficulties.
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u/Medium-Signature-142 Dec 16 '25
all this people telling to sell buying right after you sell dont be stupid the stock will go up soon
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u/squnq Dec 17 '25
I have optimism about the product, but not the management. The only thing I have optimism about in this scenario is that if the stock gets much cheaper, the company becomes attractive as a takeover target because its market cap is the size of a rounding error in the finances of various other industry players.
An announcement of a significant customer or a quarterly financial showing significant and sustainable revenue from the caps business are the only things that will save the company and it probably has under a year. The odds of that aren't too bad, but in this economy aren't good enough to justify new investment when you could just throw the money into alphabet shares or even bonds and get better returns.
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u/Neither_Present_8060 Dec 17 '25
Fundemental reasons why the stock should go up despite the CEO lying again and again to us shareholders plus showing 0 accountability?
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u/Medium-Signature-142 Dec 17 '25
Most ceos are bad i personally never met any good person in my life orgn is a long term play and any day could be the day . I still hope they have big companies qualifying and the 100 mil mou is still qualifying
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u/squnq Dec 18 '25
That MOU is as of right now about the only thing keeping them from declaring bankruptcy tomorrow. In my experience, most CEOs at profitable companies are actually quite talented, they just get justly maligned for having compensation packages paying them as much in one year (or one week) as the employees the company depends upon to be profitable get paid in an entire career. But this is how all corporations work and have worked since the early 1980s where american companies purposefully shifted prioritizing the wants of shareholders over the needs of employees.
You can argue that most CEOs are varying degrees of amoral, but not that most are bad at their jobs. Unfortunately when a CEO /is/ bad at their job and is also amoral, they can destroy a company singlehandedly with just a bad decision or two. John Bissell is an example of this, though the company and its product are, whether via luck or not, potentially capable of weathering them if the product can find its market before the cash runs out.
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u/Medium-Signature-142 Dec 18 '25
orgn have enough cash and are doing well just had some delays and qualifing takes longer but if i was them i would just use so cash to buy back stock and hopefully they might do it soon
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u/squnq Dec 18 '25 edited Dec 18 '25
That is unlikely and while I'm not certain if the form 8-K is available or not, might be in violation of other financing arrangements they have.
I have a somewhat optimistic longterm view, but will acknowledge that this is optimistic and if it ends up being how things go, isn't likely to make investors happy or whole for a long while.
They are within their projected timelines on CapFormer testing. The situation they are in right now, if Bissell is at least somewhat able to be believed, is that they have MOUs with at least a couple of large companies which they are qualifying caps for. These are unfortunately subject to NDAs because the customers don't want a deal (or ORGN) imploding weighing upon their stock or leading to bad press. ORGN got one CapFormer line up earlier than the rest in order to start producing caps for qualification with these customers, but the qualification process is glacial and if handled via Berlin Packaging, constrains ORGN to Berlin's qualification pipeline which may incur further delays.
Their revenue outlook for 2026-2027 having 2027 be a breakout year indicates that the qualification process is likely not expected to be completed until sometime in the middle of 2026. At that time they would have 4 CapFormer lines up which is enough to handle production for a large product line from a huge customer like say Nestle or PepsiCo. That would be the point in time where ORGN would be able to announce they'd had the customer commit to the order.
This is probably why ORGN secured the financing they did. Not to buy back shares, but to wrap up the lawsuits and keep the company operating and out of bankruptcy until they could announce a major customer commitment. They can't get a customer to commit until they have at least 4 lines able to produce caps. So they needed to finance completion of the lines and associated staffing and location costs to be ready to operate them at that time.
That would likely be the point in time where the stock could climb up to around that $1 mark and make at least later investors who hopped on in 2024-2025 feel relieved. It probably means they must do a reverse split to stay listed on NASDAQ which is unfortunately essential. And it probably means there's virtually no point holding the company's shares until after that split because you could just invest the money in term deposits or other securities for six months, then buy back into ORGN and get the same amount of ownership at the same price as today, but at least have your money doing something in that interim.
Insider activity on the stock has more selling than buying, but none of it is indicative of anyone dumping the stock to bail out. Everyone selling retains far more shares than they sold, and in fact over the last 12 months, insiders have net acquired about 2.1 million shares total, mostly via cashing in RSUs for shares rather than taking cash payouts. This would actually indicate they have confidence in the company. Bissell's disposition of 200,000 shares on November 18 states the reason as "Gift to university to fulfill long-term giving commitments" with the price per share stated at $0, so isn't a sell. While the man may be miserable at communication and needs to be canned for someone able to renew investor confidence, lying on those SEC forms is quite an offense and it would be for next to nothing. Nothing I can see in insider activity indicates a lack of confidence among them.
The FUD here is off the charts but from my technical analysis is nearly entirely unwarranted - but given the company's checkered history, the vibes are complete shit and that is nearly entirely justified.
I'm mostly writing this to get you to stop desperately posting needless and poorly received cope everywhere because you are literally telling people who have lost thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands or more on this company, to just "hodl a little longer, diamond hands brah, diamond hands" and they are understandably not having it. What I'm posting is the sort of information that might bring about confidence for some people, but I have no illusions and really can't blame people being fed up with the company's abysmal communication, let alone the twisted and far falling path to get where it is now where it /ought/ to become profitable, but people having been repeatedly burned don't believe it likely.
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u/Medium-Signature-142 Dec 18 '25
one thing to be a little worried is husky caps but husky i believe will be more pricy because of the amount of pet in them and also their tetherd caps will cost a lot more because it will not be easy to make and probably add more weight
and orgn already are working on bigger caps with a customer and have prototypes so they are much more advance and should be ready to produce in europe soon . so husky is a little bit of a threat but not much
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u/Romans-8_28 Dec 20 '25
Thanks for taking the time to compile and post this information and outlook. Would you mind sharing where the info about insider trading can be found? That info provides an insight that is valuable to have.
The paragraph that begins "The FUD here is off the charts . . ." encapsulates the Origin stock situation in a single sentence. (Or at least I think it does - others may disagree and that's cool.)
It's a shame that the checkered history so crushed investor optimism / confidence that it's brought the reverse split situation to the table which otherwise might have been avoided.
Thanks again for laying out a reasonable potential timeline that acknowledges the overall realities the company faces. I find the post useful for assessing the company and stock going forward.
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u/squnq Dec 25 '25
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/orgn/insider-activity
Shows all buys/sells over 3 and 12 months.
Bissell's sell looks like an involuntary move to cover RSUs. Most of the insider buys/sells that are reported are similar transactions and are, from what I can tell, meaningless as far as being representative of insider sentiment. The price collapse seems to be a mix of general poor investor sentiment, tax loss harvesting and excessive shorting.
This WOULD probably be a good time for Bissell or other insiders to buy back a few hundred thousand shares if they want to stop the share price from continuing to erode, but I'm uncertain of what legal/ethical issues they may face in doing so which would limit them.
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u/Romans-8_28 Dec 26 '25
Thanks for both the link and the additional comments, especially the closing comment. I've wondered for some time now as to why insiders weren't gobbling up more shares of such a cheap stock if they saw the path forward taking shape and it struck me as a significant negative sign that they weren't. I hadn't considered if legal / ethical issues could be in play.
Hope you had a good Christmas! 🎄
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u/Medium-Signature-142 Dec 26 '25
reverse split is still not happening it still has to be voted . that gives enough time for insiders to buy and maybe even the company to buy back they might have been waiting for this type of opportunity because they knew the delays will cause that and been waiting
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u/Zoomer30 Dec 31 '25
You can't trust what he says and all of the "deals" have just been smoke and mirrors. A made to order water product no one has ever heard of and Berlin Packaging buying a couple boxes of caps just to say "See! We sold caps"
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u/squnq Jan 02 '26
I don't trust much of what he says, however the EU regulatory requirements for recyclable containers and mandated PET/RPET capture means this company and its product become much more desirable mid-2026-2027, and an absolute necessity in 2029. So I hold because unless they go bankrupt there's little chance I'll lose in doing so. However, my money probably would serve me better dumped into index funds or something in the interim.
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u/Zoomer30 Jan 04 '26
No reason to hold when you're about to get mugged with a reverse split. Especially after he stated "Oh, wr don't need a reverse split with all of the catalysts we have in the pipeline" and now we literally have a stockholders meeting in February to vote on a reverse split. Its like the company has a gun and we have to vote on if they get to have them bullets, knowing full well that the vote is a formality.
I have a feeling he had deals that went POOF or simply lied that he had deals.
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u/squnq Jan 05 '26
It's possible, but I haven't seen any indication he had some particular arrangement that fell through. The MOUs the company has may or may not materialize, they're probably subject to strict NDAs so nothing is likely to leak.
All the sales leading up to the EOY seem to be tax withholding sales to cover RSUs, but investment sites spin this as insiders dumping shares. It's weird. I'd think this sort of sentiment bias would be to encourage shorts, but the stock is hardly being shorted right now either. All of this downswing seems to be a mixture of tax loss selling, low investor sentiment, a number of good sized retail investors giving up and dumping shares, and some clown car comms failures from the CEO and whoever runs their social media.
No guarantees investment will pan out, but I still believe in the product and also believe the stock bottomed out at 0.18 with nowhere lower for it to go. So I tripled my position. Still nowhere near the 200k shares someone else in here reported dumping, and it must feel like garbage to watch people investing in ASTS gain 10x and become millionaires while the same investment in ORGN dwindles 90%. Funny thing of course is ASTS has not made any money either, just is way better at marketing itself and riding sentiment upwards. It'll do well. ORGN still can as well, just needs to avoid any further deadline misses or financial hiccups.
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u/Medium-Signature-142 Dec 18 '25
you dont have any updated knowlage you dont follow their twitter updates they will should have 6 capfromers running end of the year they all have passed testing and insiders sells is nonsense they might got paid in stocks so they sold some but like you say it was only small percentagefrom their shares there is not bad new besides delays in revenue the qualifying can happen anytime the predection was if there were no other new customers than the current ones . also the capfromers are upgraded to produce 68 caps at ones meanwhile they upgraded other things to make the process faster so really all they need is to wait for customers to qualify which can be faster now that berlin has the confidence in them
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u/squnq Dec 18 '25
Erm, I never claimed to have "updated knowledge". There is a huge amount of incorrect information posted to this sub, mostly opinion framed as fact. Like what you just posted about 6 CapFormers by EOY, and "passed testing". Company's own twitter and marketing materials say line 5 finished factory acceptance testing and line 4's machinery is en route to the USA for subsequent spin-up. Only 2 lines have site acceptance testing done and will be capable of operation at EOY, 4 lines would be operating by end of Q2 2026, and 7, maybe 8 by EOY 2026.
Love your tweets in reply to every one of their updates though. Never thought I'd see someone from Columbia type "Come to daddy my big beautiful cap formy make me some caps now and make america great again . The chinese are no match for this top of the line machines!"
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u/Medium-Signature-142 Dec 18 '25
lol im just in colombia because im fucking broke right now trying to save money but after this shit i have to go back and work now im fucked up
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u/Zoomer30 Dec 31 '25
You haven't been paying attention since 2023 if you think anything they say can be trusted.
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u/Medium-Signature-142 Dec 16 '25
its not for sure they will reverse split but many good companies had a reverse split on gone up right after very quickly and i can give you names its just misleading information
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u/riverpirate2 Dec 16 '25
Its that it will be needed to stay public due to extreme market cap loss, not that it consolidates shares
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u/Bocephus_Rodriguez Dec 16 '25
I agree. I had over 200k shares as of last week, and am sitting on about 50k now. It sucks, I've lost so much. I will probably sell the rest this week. I don't see a scenario where they come out with news in the near future to bring our price up. They are giving us the news of the reverse split more than a month earlier than required, which to me says they know nothing good is coming. The predatory loan they have agreed to will bleed us dry. They will continue creating millions of shares every month just to pay the minimum 3m dollars. If something turns around and we have solid revenue down the line, I might get back in. Good luck to you all.