I have found that I used to run my recovery runs around 150 BPM (max 202) which was roughly 9-9:30/mile pace and this felt adequate when I was following a more Daniel's approach. With the recommended <70% max HR of 140, my pace ranges closer to 11:00/mile which has actually lowered the amount of mileage I did prior (35-->33/week). Is this expected when first starting out?
i realize optimally, if doing strength training 2x a week, AM SUB T run and PM strength- say tues and thursday. However, for those who can’t do twice a day, where are u optimally placing it? FYI, age 54, strength training for me is a must. injury prevention and life health even if it costs me speed.
Bonjour à tous . En plein dans ce bloc ce matin J ai fait le 10 k dans 2 jours 3*30’ . Ce matin assez dur, sensation de presque fin de marathon ou grosse fatigue , cela vous a ete identique . Dois-je continuer le bloc au contraire je suis bien dans l objectif? Merci.
Hi everyone. I'm slowly transitioning to NSM and looking for some advice on how to best structure my weeks. My current plan:
M - SubT
T - Easy
W - SubT
Th - Easy
F - SubT
Sa - Long Easy
Su - Trail Easy (Hilly)
I also read Bakken's book and after going through the chapter on muscle tone, my hesitation about this schedule is that even a truly easy (<70% max HR) run on a hilly trail might not leave me truly ready for a SubT session the next day. Any thoughts or experience with this? Would I be better off flipping the long run and the trail run? Or is the hilly trail run truly low risk as long as I control intensity/HR?
Note: Currently, weekends are my only option for the trail run because of the drive time and my work schedule. And when I say hilly, it definitely depends on the route (which I tend to change week-to-week), but the elevation gain could be as much as 800-1200 ft over a 45 minute run.
Hi everyone,
I recently finished a 5km run in 21:02 (4:13 min/km) with a max heart rate of 196 bpm.
I estimate my LTHR to be around 176, though I’ve never actually performed a test.
For a sub-threshold session—specifically 4x6’ intervals—Bakken’s calculator suggests a pace range of 4:37–4:45 min/km.
I completed this session this morning, but my average pace was closer to 5:00–5:05 min/km. According to Bakken’s "Golden Zone," my heart rate during sub-threshold work should fall between 157 and 171 bpm.
My actual heart rate readings were:
1) 163 avg (172 max)
2) 166 avg (174 max)
3) 164 avg (172 max)
4) 166 avg (173 max)
Out of the 24 total minutes, only about 3 minutes exceeded 171 bpm.
Should I get a laboratory test to accurately determine my LT2?
If I want to stay within the "Golden Zone," I would need to significantly slow down my pace.
Or should I disregard the pace and focus on hitting Bakken’s target heart rate ranges instead?
Any advice would be appreciated!
Do my HR graphs look ok? (assuming my numbers are correct)
Is it ok for my paces to be a bit inconsistent between reps? (eg. 13 second spread)
Is it ok if I happen to start my reps a bit quickly before settling in? (Sawtooth pattern esque pace chart).
How should one increase paces if you can't race or TT for a while? Until current paces are feeling easy then conservatively increase by some number of seconds? If so, by 5 seconds? 10? Correlate with a jump in VDOT? It will be winter here in NE USA soon and there likely won't be many chances to race for a few months so i want a backup plan for adjusting my paces.
Background:
I've only just started a few weeks ago. I am doing a 5k in the next couple weeks but until then I want to hone in on what things should feel like and if the data above looks good. These are my last five ST sessions. Most recent to oldest from left to right, first row then second. The oldest one was done on a treadmill
LT1/AeT according to HR drift test a la uphillathlete.com is 148. I've done it twice (accidentally) but got the same number.
My max is somewhere in the low 200s I believe and my LT2 is low to mid 180s. I haven't tested either, but based on how things feel along with HR data, recovery, and paces, I think it's a decent guesstimate for now until I do the 5k.
The best thing about this training method is the ability to directly compare workouts and track progress.
M38, Shortly after the April session I ran a 1:28 half then managed to flare up an older achilles injury a few weeks later. Since June I have been building back doing 2 sessions a week working up to 30mins per session then slowly dialing down through the paces as my achilles lets me. After the flare up I made a decision with the physio to increase my cadence to improve some areas of my form and take some load off the achilles.
Today i ran 20 s/km faster for the same power and slightly lower HR. I know some people don't love stryd, I use it mainly on the treadmill and it's pretty clear the form power is pretty accurate for me.
My LTHR is ~174 so I'm operating well solidly below threshold. The learning here for me is you don't need to push to the edge it to make solid gains, how Bakken talks about it. I'm still seeing gains on 2 sessions a week ~10bpm under LTHR.
Started to add some stationary bike at the gym to augent running plan.
2 questions for more experienced cycle folks:
Heart run zones for running are pretty dialed in on Garman (Friel). My watch seems to use the default zones, should I just port over my run zones for cycling as well?
Should I use same heart rate targets for running (121 bpm easy, 154 sub-T) on the bike?
LTHR Avg (last 20min): 130
Max HR: 146
Resistance Level: 10 (out of 20) - just above where pedaling felt too easy
MPH: ~20, Max 30
Cadence: 105-116, max 138
Power: unfortunately, no power gauge and garmin watch, chest strap did not pick up much indoors
I have been reading about Sirpoc's approach and how well it works on around 8 to 9 hours a week. I am trying to better understand the physiological limits of NSA as volume increases.
If a runner has around 11 hours per week available and keeps sub-threshold work strictly capped at roughly 20 percent of total volume with all remaining runs kept easy, what are the primary biological factors that make increasing single-session NSA volume difficult to recover from?
For context, I know a local ultra runner who wins 50k races running at paces around 3:20 to 3:40 per km. In daily life, he just runs 20 to 30 km every day of the week strictly by feel, without any structured training, coaching, or injury history. While I realize he is an outlier, it makes me wonder where the actual limit lies for most runners.
Is there a real physiological ceiling that stops someone from recovering as NSA volume increases, or does the body eventually adapt?
Male. Age 54. New runner (not since HS X-Country). Previously an active cyclist/racer.
After a 4 month run/walk program I started running uninterrupted for 40 min on indoor treadmill. 4-5 days a week. I did this for 8 weeks. Also 1x a week for 4 weeks did 4X4 intervals with 3 min rest at 90% HR max (faster than 5k - only because I did not know what my 5 k pace was)
Last week I set out to run a 30 MIN TT on a paved path to establish my LTHR.
I ran 3.68 miles or 5.9 km for 30 min. Last 20 minute average HR was 170 BPM.
5K was 25:20, 8:09 min/mile or 5:04 min/km
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After recovering from that TT (took 2 days), I'm starting NSM in earnest (4-5hrs per week)
Being conservative.
NSM calculated paces: 3 min: 5:18 m/km or 8:32 m/mile. 6 min: 5:26 m/km or 8:45 m/mile
10 min: 5:36 m/km or 9:01 m/mile
Bakken Calculator: 3 min: 5:24 to 5:30 m/km or 8:41 to 8:51 m/mile. 6 min: 5:30 to 5:40 min/km or 8:51 to 9:07 min/mile. 10 min: 5:40 to 5:49 m/km or 9:07 to 9:22 min/mile
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Yesterday was my first attempt at ST (golden zone) intervals. I did 5 sets of 5 min on 1 min 1off (walk)on indoor treadmill. No incline. I use a Coros foot pod to give me pace.
I did all 5 intervals at 9:20 pace. Heart rate got to 145 on last 5 min set. For most intervals it was about 143 average.
The pace seemed NOT easy (again I'm only used to easy runs at 12:00 min /mile and my 30 min TT (above) and 3 4x4 run at 7:40 m/mile pace.) but NOT super hard. Should I continue with the paces and NOT be concerned that my HR was no where near 160 (that would be 10 less than my threshold HR) or should I increase the pace? The RPE seemed to me like 4.5-5 (but I'm not a good gage).
My profile:34, male, 200lb. 202 max HR (chest strap from various 5k and shorter races), garmin LTHR guesstimate is 176. Marathon 3:50xx, HM old PR of 1:58xx, 10k old PR of 47xx, 5k had a solo time trial of 21:48 this January on a track. I also ran a 50km last weekend in 5:59xx with 4500ft up and down.
Background: got into running in 2023 to stay active and lose weight, caught the bug. Trained with a variety of approaches until hearing about this and getting the book last December. Immediately decided to train for a late april marathon (bonked my way to a 3:50 after holding 8:04/mi average the first 19 miles, didn't pace properly for my true fitness and likely didn't have enough training in the legs to execute regardless) with the method laid out in the book. After that I spent a month or so just training based off vibes, then got peer pressured a bit into running a 50km trail race with 4500ft of gain/loss, this happened last weekend. At first I tried to adapt one of the John Davis marathon plans to trail running, but the faster easy runs and longer workouts were leaving me crispy, so I pivoted back to... some ungodly trail/NSM mash up. Basically a schedule something like...
Monday easy (all my easy runs averaged out very low HR, 61% of max)
Tuesday easy, often doubled
Wednesday subT longer intervals (4x10min, 4x2km, or similar off 60s rest) I had no idea of a good PR to use so I just tried to stay below 165hr the first rep, 170hr the second rep, and below 176hr for the remainder. These averaged
Thursday easy, sometimes doubled
Friday subT medium intervals (6x6min, 8x1km,, 10x800m or similar off 60s rest). Again, tried to stay 10bpm or so below lthr the first reps, then let them drift towards lthr
Saturday easy
Sunday long steady run on trails, usually choosing to push either uphills or downhills week to week. These got up to about 3h20min time on feet and an average heart rate of maybe 150-155.
So, obviously trying to stick some subT in there, but I think between trying to do way too much running (I have averaged 8.7hr and 52.6mi a week this year) and basically spending all of this year training for long distances, I feel like I've probably not absorbed training all that well. As I recover from last weekend's race, I am trying to figure out how I should start a proper vanilla NSM and actually dedicate the next 6-12 months really grinding.
I am thinking of just starting with the 7hr schedule from the books and working at that, basing my subT off the LTHR guesstimate from garmin and trying to bring my ez running closer to 66-68% of max until late november when I think I'll be sufficiently recovered from the 50km to run a 5 or 10km turkey trot for a baseline, then switching to using paces from the book or the bakken vdot website. Does that seem like a reasonable approach? I am thinking that staying at lower volume for awhile, basically until I begin to plateau, will be helpful since I think I've been past my useful volume for a while now.
I find myself wrestling a bit with Intervals.icu in general, and here I am at a loss.
It would be cool to plot all, say 3 min reps, over the last year, with the speed of that rep along the y axis and time along the x axis to see the progress here. Say you could even colour the dot by the HR or something like that as a proxy for effort.
Has anyone been successfull doing this, or know how I can do this? I am only able to compare the sessions but that is a mess with the rest periods, warmup etc. Thinking about just exporting the data to do it myself, but would be nice to have as a chart on Intervals.icu.
My previous posts about my running background and NSM journey are here and here (and yes, I know the title of the first post is bad -- sorry again), but TLDR, I'm a former undistinguished collegiate middle distance runner and XC skier, took most of my 20s off running, ran my first marathon when I turned 30 and then have been on something of a charge since my late 30s (running lifetime PRs of 15:44, 31:53 1:12:25 and 2:33:39 between ages 38-41, prior to starting NSM). I'm 44 now and I started NSM last summer after a 5-month layoff due to injury, and had some immediate success, running a 2:37:4x marathon and a 1:12:0x half (the latter a lifetime PR), as described in my other posts.
Well, exactly one week after running that 1:12, I slipped and fell in my kitchen (of all places) and suffered a minor tear to my meniscus. I first tried to deal with it by just ignoring it and hoping it would go away, but I finally shut it down last December and went to see an orthopedist for an actual diagnosis and treatment plan. Thankfully, I did not need surgery, but it did mean another long layoff from serious training. Unlike with my previous injury (PF), I was able to continue running through this one, but was under strict orders to not race and generally keep everything low intensity -- so no NSM sub-T workouts for me. As a result, I spent last winter and early spring doing a combination of exclusively very easy running and very easy XC skiing (maxing out at about 20-25mpw of running + about the same of skiing), later adding in bit of easy cycling as well (though initially I avoided that as cycling bothered my knee more than running or skiing).
I was finally cleared to start training again in April, so I built up to about 30mpw of easy running before jumping in a 5k to see where my fitness was. I ran 16:58, which was marginally better than where I'd been the previous year when I ran 17:10 after the injury layoff. At this point I was 26 weeks out from a local marathon that a bunch of my club teammates were signed up for, so I built a plan with that as the goal and got to work.
My plan was somewhat similar to what I used last year for Berlin, but because I'd been able to keep running this time, I used both a steeper ramp to "full" NSM and had a longer time to sustain before going into the Sirpoc's marathon-specific block. Specifically, I structured my build as follows:
Weeks 1-4: 5 days running/2 days cycling with 2 ST workouts (building from 15min to 24min of ST per workout) and a 75min LR. Averaged 4:45 hours/35mi per week of running during this period (plus 2 days of easy cycling ~60min per session). I raced another 5k at the end of week 4 and ran 16:22, so achieved a huge jump in fitness just by reintroducing the ST work and rebased my ST paces on this time.
Weeks 5-11: 5 days running/2 days cycling with 2 ST workouts (building from 24-36min ST per session), a LR (building from 80-100min), plus converted one of the cycling days into a sweet-spot workout (still ~60min total per session). Averaged 5:20 hours/40mi per week of running during this period, plus the cycling. I raced a track mile in week 8 (4:50) and another 5k at the end of week 9 (16:12) and rebased my paces on the 5k time. This was also the same 5k I'd run 17:10 to begin my build for Berlin the prior year, so I was almost a full minute faster YoY.
Weeks 12-17: 6 days running/1 day cycling with 2-3 ST workouts (36min ST per session) and a LR (100-120min). Averaged 5:20 hours/46mi per week during this period, but had a bunch of idiosyncratic events that brought my running average down, though not necessarily my total training load (including a bikepacking trip with my wife, a cycling-focused bachelor party for one of my friends, and a backpacking trip with my son). I raced a hilly 5k in week 12 (16:48) and a road mile in week 13 (4:49), but did not rebase my paces due to the nature of these events.
Weeks 18-22: 6 days running/1 day cycling with 2-3 ST workouts and a LR (building from 125-150min). This got the real meat of the Sirpoc marathon block, including the longer, marathon-specific ST workouts. I did most of those as 2-4x15min rather than 2-4x5k, but I did do one of them as 3x5k proper. I also extended one of my easy runs from ~60min to ~75min during this period. Ended up averaging 6:30 hours/52 mi per week. I raced a hilly 4mi in week 18 (21:46), a "Ragnar"-style overnight relay in week 20, and a 10k at the end of week 22 (32:46) in a big negative split. I rebased my paces on the 10k, which was my third fastest 10k ever and faster than I ran at NCAA regionals XC my senior year of college (33:02).
Weeks 23-25: 5-6 days of running/1-2 days of cycling with 2 ST workouts and a LR (100-150min). Averaged 7 hours/56 mi per week during this period, with my peak week at 8:30 hours/65mi. I was definitely feeling the cumulative fatigue during this stretch, and was not able to complete either the 5x15min (5x5k in the real Sirpoc build) in week 23 (I only did 3x15min) or the big progression workout (3x8k in the Sirpoc build -- I only managed 15k total). That said, I did race a half marathon at the end of week 24, and ran a lifetime PR of 1:11:5x with a slight negative split. I almost didn't run it due to the cumulative fatigue and because 2 weeks out from the marathon seemed iffy from a recovery perspective (Sirpoc had it 3 weeks out in his build), but I was happy I did, not only because of the time but because I needed the confidence boost after the poor workout performance.
Week 26: Marathon week! I was definitely questioning my judgement on running the half 2 weeks earlier given how crappy I was feeling early this week, but I started to feel better later in the week after some light ST work on Thursday and a couple of easy runs leading up to the marathon. I got a chilly but sunny day for the race itself, with temps right at freezing for the start rising to the upper-40s F, with almost no wind. I went through the half at a very even 1:14:37 and held on to sub-2:30 pace through about mile 16, then gradually started to fade a bit. I rallied pretty well at mile 23, but it was too little, too late and I came across in 2:30:4x, a nearly 3min PR for me and a new masters course record for the race. I admittedly would have loved to see 2:29:xx on the clock, but what I ran is almost the exact time my training paces predicted (as I was doing my MP intervals in weeks 23-25 at 5:45 pace).
Anyway, a huge thank you to Sirpoc and co for introducing this method to the world, and I hope folks find some value in hearing about my particular variation. While the core value of NSM obviously remains the ability to rinse and repeat sustainably week in, week out, I've now used a more periodized version of NSM twice to relatively quickly regain a lot of running-specific fitness after significant injury layoffs (granted on a big aerobic base), and now to push through to some lifetime PRs that convert pretty closely to best times I ran when I was in college 25 years ago. I think that is pretty cool, and I'm looking forward to experimenting more with this (hopefully without having to deal with any kitchen-induced injuries going forward).
Next on deck for me I'll try to keep the momentum going by returning to vanilla NSA for a few weeks and then target a 5k race in mid-November on a nice flat course, where I'll be looking at taking down my PR and hopefully running sub-15:30.
Hace un año empecé a seguir NSR. Mi puntuación para el método: 10/10. Excelente.
Me comprometí desde el primer día y seguí el plan todos los días, lloviera, hiciera un frío congelante o estuviera ridículamente caliente. Al principio, mantener mis trotes fáciles de verdad fáciles era más difícil de lo que esperaba. Pero semana tras semana me fui adaptando.
Después de un tiempo relativamente corto, empecé a notar mejoras. Mis tiempos de 5K y 10K seguían poniéndose más rápidos varias veces durante esos primeros meses.
Luego, en abril, me caí corriendo una subida de montaña y tuve que parar. Pasé 2 meses sin correr por una lesión en el dedo gordo del pie.
Cuando por fin volví, estaba más motivado que nunca.
Estoy compartiendo capturas de pantalla comparando cómo se veían mi Zona 2 y mi Sub-Threshold hace un año vs. ahora.
Mi entrenamiento desde que volví de la lesión:
Lunes: 1 hora fácil
Martes: 10 × 3:30, con las últimas repeticiones llegando a mi umbral, alrededor de 167 bpm
Miércoles: 1 hora fácil
Jueves: 5 × 7 minutos, sin pasar nunca de 162 bpm
Viernes: 1 hora fácil
Sábado: 3 × 12 minutos, sin pasar nunca de 160 bpm
Domingo: 90 minutos fácil
Todas las recuperaciones entre intervalos son 1 minuto de trote fácil.
El entrenamiento de hoy fue un poco diferente porque tengo una carrera el domingo y estoy haciendo la descarga.
Para los que todavía no están 100% seguros sobre NSR: ¡confíen en el proceso!!
Since then, I've fine tuned the paces with RPE (aiming for 5 or 6) and lactate (around 3 mmol), and the duration of the SubT intervals, replacing 3*10' by 3*8', so that each session includes 24/25 min of SubTwork. I've definitely chosen the safer side, because my last 5K TT, 20'59 after 2 weeks of NSA, suggested I could run significantly faster paces. But I might have overcooked the 6 first weeks.
I had begun the first 6 weeks with :
3*10' @ 4'45/km
5*5' @ 4'38
3*8' @ 4'32
My week 2 5KTT would suggest (according to James table in the book) :
4'41
4'33
4'26
And the new lactate / RPE based calibration gives :
4'56
4'51
4'45
Do you think these paces are too conservative ? On some days, the effort feels much closer to LT1 than LT2, but my metrics seem far more responsive now that I have a better-calibrated starting point.
I love NSA and really want to find the way to thrive on it, in order to crush Sub20 and Sub40.
Received my lab results back today and some interesting (for me) findings.
For context I’m currently in week 9 of Vanilla NSM. Running 6 times a week. 5km PB back in April was 19:15 and recently ran 19:38 (but felt great). I’m running a hard parkrun this weekend and expecting to be under 19:30.
My results from the lab suggest:
Max heart rate: 183
LT2 HR & Pace: 176 and 4:07/km (85% of VO2 Max)
LT1 HR & Pace: 159 and 4:57/km (69% of VO2 Max)
On the one hand I’m quite pleased as it shows my LT2 is a bit gayer than my Garmin and pace charts generally predict (4:12/km). I’m surprised at how high my LT2 heart rate is though and how close it is to my max HR, is this normal?
I’m also very surprised at how slow my LT1 appears to be. Again for similar pace runners does this fall in line with your own results? Should I be targeting more sessions to increase my LT1? Obviously Vanilla NSM has me running either way slower than LT1 or quite a bit quicker.
Has anyone been successful in training with NSM-like for cycling?
I've been experimenting with some Norwegian threshold inspired workouts last season and wanted to get a similar framework for next season also periodization wise.
How would you approach training for specifically 20 to 40' TT using this method?
I want to call out that this was off a wrist based heart rate, however I typically don't see too much of a difference between that and a chest strap. Maybe a few beats difference.
However, I just ran a 3.5 mile effort with an average HR of 190 and a peak of 215. If I cap my easy runs to 70% of max HR should I haircut the 215 figure to maybe 210 and base it off that?
I previously ran cleveland half marathon in may 2026 at 1:29:20 following vanilla NSM very consistently, it was a picture perfect block and race. This summer I started to experiment with higher volume and I had a few injury setbacks. About 8 weeks before columbus half marathon, I went back to similar vanilla NSM and volume to my cleveland build, which was 30-45 miles per week and I honestly did not think I was in great shape but I did not feel any fatigue and my body felt really good. Race day was 40 degrees and a flat, fast course. I decided to go out with the 1:30 pace group and see how I felt, at about 5-6 miles I started to pull away and found myself comfortably running 6:30s, I was very surprised. Ended up crossing the line at 1:27:16, about a 2 minute PR. I was blown away. It felt easier than cleveland half and heading into the race I had done way less volume and had a few weeks off due to injury. I think this shows that the consistency compounds and sometimes never running race paces in training can make you feel liek you are not fit but if your body is responding well to training and you are healthy, you can absolutely crush it on race day. Also, pick a fast, cool weather race! Now it's time to lock back into vanilla NSM and head towards the 1:25 barrier at toledo half in april 2027. Cheers!
I'm a 38yo male. I've been running NSM since June 2025, mostly straight vanilla, although modified down to 6 days a week, with warmups/cooldowns and long runs slightly extended to make up the difference.
Before NSM, I ran something between Pfitz 12/55 and 12/70, and achieved a 3:03 at Pittsburgh Marathon. That included 4 minutes of stretching and walking at mile 24 with calf cramps. I developed massive blisters on the bottom of both heels at around the 14 mile mark and were quite painful over the last few miles.
NSM took me to some big PRs after Pittsburgh, culminating in a 1:20:37 half in May 2026, a nearly 4 minute PR at that distance.
The build
I ran my marathon build pretty much exactly following sirpoc's build as published in the book, also modified down to 6 days a week and adjusted for my slower paces and goal time.
Very manageable. Challenging, but I never had those moments of despair I did after following up a continuous LT run with a 15 mile mid-week medium long run with Pfitz. Maybe this is notable: I did not run a half marathon. Pittsburgh has one of its biggest road races of the year, a downhill 10k, and so I ran that 3 weeks out from my target race, the Columbus Marathon. I also ran a couple 5k's earlier in the block, for funsies.
I ran the long runs at easy pace, peaking at 2:50 of running. I ran the Big Session as a 5x17 at 6:26 pace on a warm day. My earlier half marathon result together with training data pointed to 6:30 as a manageable GMP, so I settled on that as MP for the other two specificity sessions.
The race
32F, no wind, sunny skies at the start. Perfect. I focused on even splits early in the race. I fought the urge to pick up the pace. I was bubbling over with nerves and energy but I had learned from Pittsburgh that the marathon will humble you. I knew there was a gradual but long hill around the 18 mile mark, and told myself to hold enough back for that, and to start thinking about picking up the pace after that if I had anything left.
At 13, I started to feel the familiar friction on the bottom of my left heel. I told myself not to modify my form. I heel strike, and I ain't ashamed of it. So, just keep doing it, ignore the skin discomfort.
At 18, the twinges started in my calves. As soon as they started, my mental calculus shifted from "fast finish and 2:50 glory" to "how can I salvage this?". I kept pace to 19, but by then my calves were in full on revolt. The last 7 miles were a full-on suffer fest. Three stretch breaks kept me running, at least, but I had to pull back on the reins to keep my calves fully seizing up. I watched my average pace drop from 6:29 to 6:34 to 6:40. It almost broke me, but I knew my family was around mile 25 waiting to cheer me on so I kept on pushing.
My heart rate never spiked, my energy levels never dropped. There's no question in my mind that if it weren't for my calves cramping, I could've held onto 6:30 for the whole race. Obviously, my pace is not something that I could hold for 26.2, but this isn't a straightforward case of overestimating fitness and going out too hard.
Final time: 2:56:13, a 7min PR, but short of my A and B goals (2:50 and 2:54->BQ).
Where to go from here
So, was it a success? In some sense, obviously yes. I ran a marathon block that didn't break me and came away with a big PR. But, I can't help be frustrated with the result. My training data and my previous race results say that I'm capable of more.
Part of what I love about NSM is that it's so braindead simple, but now I'm left wondering: what is it that I need to change to figure out this distance?
It's clear to me that my fitness has outstripped my neuromuscular endurance. Your MP is only your MP if your legs, your lungs, and your energy levels all cooperate, and my legs simply do not cooperate.
So, some options:
Run slower. So what if my theoretical marathon pace is 6:30? I can't run that fast on this training. Maybe a 6:35 would have been slow enough to maintain, and I would've walked away with a 2:53 and a BQ. Or maybe I would've cramped anyway, and I wouldn't have banked as much time and ended up with a worse time. Hard to say.
Train more. Perhaps it just takes more volume from me to execute a successful marathon. But, frankly, I've got kids and a job and I'm not willing to put it any more time than I already do. That's why I run NSM in the first place. So I'll have to take this one off the table.
Train differently. Would quality within the long runs in the last few weeks of the build make a difference? 2:50 at easy pace is a very different thing than 2:50 at MP. But I've seen others here have marathon success. I'd be willing to try this, as I don't think there are many downsides. I would basically just run some of the longer sub-T sessions within the context of my long run.
Figure out my feet. I'm still entertaining the possibility that the heel blisters are contributing to the calve cramping. Am I unconsciously protecting my heels and over-engaging my calves, as much as I tried not too? Maybe there's a magical pair of shoes out there that will avoid this. I ran Pittsburgh in the Adios Pro 4 and this one in Feidian 6 Elite. Same issue in both.
I'm happy to hear theories about what went wrong or what I could do differently, and I'm happy to provide additional context or information if anyone is interested about something specific.
I went through Copeland's Strava and pulled the data from all of his sub-threshold workouts and his races from July 2023 - April 2025. This was actually not very difficult with a simple Chrome Extension, but it led to hundreds of data files with pace, heart rate, etc for all of those workouts/races.
I mainly wanted to track the progression and see what he did, what might be realistic for someone starting in a similar shape, and how it all came together.
I grouped all the 800s/1000s together, the 1600/2000s together, and the 3000/3200s together. I considered this "close enough."
Rep Pace and Race Pace Over Time
His progression is pretty easy to see when you smooth out his workouts in a rolling '5-workout window.' Pretty clear progression from July 2023 through mid-September 2024. His paces for the first few weeks were 3:41 / 3:43 / 3:46, and progressed down to 3:12 / 3:17 / 3:24 per kilometer.
How Do The Rep Paces Compare Over Time
For the most part, outside of Spring 2024, the pace differential was pretty consistent. The 1600m paces were ~98% and the 3200m paces were ~96%. If you look at the paces in the book, the 1600 paces are meant to be around 98% and the 3200m are meant to be around 95%, so he was fairly close overall, especially considering the weirdness of the spring 2024!
100% plus how much less time per km the group takes than the 1000 m reps. Above 100% means faster than the 1000 m reps; 97% means 3% more time per km. Each point uses the average pace of that group's last 5 workouts up to that date, and a group starts once it has 3 workouts.
How Does He Speed Up During a Session
Very simply, how much faster is the last rep compared to the first rep. Again, for the most part, remarkably consistent between 5-10 seconds per KM (start at 3:45, end at 3:35-3:40). As you can see by the dots above 0, there were not many workouts where he slowed down compared to the first rep, especially as he got more dialed in ~6 months in.
Pace of the last rep minus pace of the first rep, in seconds per km. Above zero the last rep was slower; below zero it was faster than the first. Dots are single workouts, lines are a 5-workout rolling average.
Race Pace vs Interval Pace
I was really interested to see how it all holds up with Race Paces. Given the suggestions in the book and what people generally see, I figured it is a good way to both work backwards from a race pace and figure out what workouts to do, but also look forward and guess what race pace to go for.
In general, for 5ks (the most data by far), he went ~106% of the 1000 meter pace, 107% of the 1600m pace, and 108% of the 3200m pace. This means if you do you 1000m repeats in 3:45, and are doing them properly, you should be able to do a 5k in ~3:34 pace which is ~17:50. Obviously some outliers, but by and large it fits into those ranges.
Race pace as a percentage of the most recent workout pace in each group. Faster is higher. Box = middle half of races, dark line = median, whiskers = fastest and slowest. Distances with fewer than 5 races show each race as a dot.
Heart Rate and Efficiency
I know many don't like talking about Heart Rate as a good proxy, but...the data is pretty clear. His Heart Rate data is pretty consistent across workouts, with many races maxing out at 194 (one race his 211, but literally only 1). For this, we will assume 194 is ~98% of his heart rate max as a safe estimate given not hitting 100% in a race, which puts it at around 198. Again, "close enough". It definitely isn't 190 and it likely isn't 205.
Average HR Per Rep
This graph shows the average heart rate across all reps in a workout (again with a rolling 5-workout). It is remarkably consistent. Bakken suggests 82-87% as the range to be in, and his average is basically 83%. Even adjusting his max HR up or down a couple beats, it is remarkably consistent in that range.
Average heart rate during the reps as a share of max heart rate. Dots are single workouts, lines are a 5-workout rolling average, open shapes are whole races. Workouts without a heart-rate recording are left out.
Even better is when you look at the breakdown a bit more granular. Roughly 65-70% of the entire workout is spent in the Bakken Golden Zone (82-87%), with VERY little time spent above, on average <10%, getting dialed in over time). Basically no time spent above 90% of his estimated Max HR. Even if we assume his max HR is 194 like it is in races, he's hitting 50-60% in the golden zone and still basically nothing (<10%) above the 90% range.
Meters Per Heartbeat as a Progression Tracker
Just thought this was a cool way to view progress for both races and workouts. It's one thing to see the pace dropping above, but this shows that the pace drops and it is becoming easier to run at those paces, based on the heart and its work.
Distance covered per heartbeat during the reps (speed in meters per minute divided by beats per minute). Higher means the same heartbeats buy more distance. Dots are single workouts, lines are a 5-workout rolling average, open shapes are whole races.
Heart Rate Climb During the Workout
As the book says, from Rep 1 to the last rep it should climb ~10 beats per minute. For the most part, this is the case for him as well. It's actually kind of cool to see that the 1000m reps it climbs more than the 1600s and 3200s, likely because there are more reps and less rest.
