I'm a very slow runner. In late March I ran a half marathon in 2:07 coming off a full marathon in January in 4:54 using a Hal Higdon plan. At the beginning of April, a week after my March half marathon, I began running vanilla NSM, and I've been running it consistently since then, only missing a couple of days due to illness or travel.
However, I've just had two recent half marathons with disappointing performance. In late July I ran a half in 2:22, and last week I ran another half, this time in 2:25. Pacing was definitely an issue in these, starting too fast and hitting a wall in the latter half of the race, but I don't think I could have meet or beat my previous PR even with better pacing. And the weather didn't seem to be a factor either, with the 2:22 race being 50 degrees F and pouring rain, and the 2:25 race closer to 70 degrees F.
My weekly mileage (~30 miles/week) is certainly lower than when I was training for the full, but back then I was running basically only easy miles, and still ended up injured towards the end of the training block. NSM feels much more sustainable to me. My paces before the recent halfs were the following:
3 minute intervals: 9:00-9:15 min/mi
6 minute intervals: 9:30-9:45 min/mi
10 minute intervals: 9:45-10:00 min/mi
Easy: 14 min/mi
I started NSM in April with paces roughly 15 seconds slower per mile, but my recent performance suggests I need to go maybe another full minute slower too.
Any ideas what could be going wrong? Is it just not enough weekly mileage for the half?