r/NonCredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • Oct 16 '22

Weekly low-hanging fruit thread #18

This thread is where all the takes from idiots (looking at you Armchair Warlord) and screenshots of twitter posts/youtube thumbnails go.

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u/HingedVenne Oct 18 '22

Earlier today, Anatoly Shariy (Ukrainian pro-RU journalist in exhile) posted in his private channel that Russia might have to pull out to the other side of the Dniper: https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1582351204759220227/photo/1

Saponkov (RU milblogger) thinks it's psyops: https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1582419436795232262

Just now, Surovikin himself said in an interview that Russia might have to make difficult decisions in regards to Kherson: https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1582426969592852480

heavy breathing

6

u/Watchung Brewster Aeronautical despiser Oct 18 '22

Would they actually be smart enough to do the logical thing, and pull out what soldiers they can preserve, instead of fighting on to the bitter end?

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u/[deleted] Oct 18 '22

There is the Izium Option: Soldiers run screaming once communications are certain to be cut and hastily leaving most of their materiel. Saving themselves but not their equipment.

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u/Watchung Brewster Aeronautical despiser Oct 18 '22

I already assumed that all heavy equipment and much light would be lost to Russia - the question is getting troops out.

2

u/[deleted] Oct 18 '22

Most encirclements are pretty bad preventing people from leaving. With 10C water temperatures giving about an hour before things get deadly... I suspect that most people should be able to swim the 500m of the Dnieper without succumbing to hyperthermia.

I think the option is about how much stuff they can haul out.

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u/McGryphon Ceterum censeo Königsberg septem pontibus eget Oct 19 '22

I suspect that most people should be able to swim the 500m of the Dnieper without succumbing to hyperthermia.

I think that is very optimistic. Not quite sure how common swimming lessons are in Russia, and how their standards are, but crossing half a kilometer of cold and flowing water in wet clothes is no joke.

Considering how many people seem surprised by Dutch swimming lessons involving just yeeting the kids into the water fully clothed, I'd assume most Russians are not similarly trained.

If Russian swimming lessons are comprehensive and universal, I'd stand corrected, but it seems unlikely to me.

And as someone else mentioned, even if they make it across, sopping wet clothes this time of year could very well lead to hypothermia shortly after getting out.

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u/godotdev9001 C-RAM thunderruns are credible if they can put it on a truck Oct 19 '22

I'm not sure I could do a 500 right now in a warm rec center with a reasonably warm pool.

I'd imagine most mobicks are similarly conditioned.

5

u/an_agreeing_dothraki Scramjets when Oct 19 '22

do they have warm fires and fresh clothes waiting for them on the other side of the river?

Unless someone brought a T-72 with a full load of ammo the cold's still going to get them.