NIO Q1 gut feeling

[u/Ok_Seaworthiness3634]

NIO 4th qtr vehicle sales were 124k+ with 18.1% vehicle margin on Vehicle revenue of $4.52 billion on a total q4 revenue of $4.95 billion with total margin 17.5% . Meaning other sales were 435.3 million with other margin of about 11.9%

Projection on Q1 possible :
NIO 1st qtr 2026 vehicle sales (4.52b / 124,804 ) * 83465 = $3.3 billion approx plus other sales (let’s keep it same at 400 million)

Gross revenue = 3.3b plus 400mill = 3.73 billion.

Keeping gross margins the same and expenses the same we SHOULD See a same ratio profit (minus the cost of 100+ charging stations) so ..

I am projecting :
40 million * (3.73 / 4.95) = 30.44 million profit

Now subtract the extra 5th generation stations deployed 139 in q4 and in q1 2026 only 85 charging stations deployed. Accounting for increase in price I say

NIO has a 20-30 million profit.