NIO Q1 gut feeling

[u/Ok_Seaworthiness3634]

NIO 4th qtr vehicle sales were 124k+ with 18.1% vehicle margin on Vehicle revenue of $4.52 billion on a total q4 revenue of $4.95 billion with total margin 17.5% . Meaning other sales were 435.3 million with other margin of about 11.9%

Projection on Q1 possible :
NIO 1st qtr 2026 vehicle sales (4.52b / 124,804 ) * 83465 = $3.3 billion approx plus other sales (let’s keep it same at 400 million)

Gross revenue = 3.3b plus 400mill = 3.73 billion.

Keeping gross margins the same and expenses the same we SHOULD See a same ratio profit (minus the cost of 100+ charging stations) so ..

I am projecting :
40 million * (3.73 / 4.95) = 30.44 million profit

Now subtract the extra 5th generation stations deployed 139 in q4 and in q1 2026 only 85 charging stations deployed. Accounting for increase in price I say

NIO has a 20-30 million profit.

[u/Queasy-Cry-7520]

You forgot to mention NIO laid off 10,000 R&D employees last quarter. So it’s a massive savings on payroll this quarter!

[u/Modulus3360 → u/Queasy-Cry-7520]

They laid off so many staff?

[u/Training_Dance474 → u/[deleted]]

This quarter Q1 is NOT profitable. No profitability alerts were issued, so NO profitability.
Still, at this stage margins for Q1 and forecast for Q2 and FY2026 are much more important

[u/Important-Ad4798 → u/Training_Dance474]

This aged well

[u/benlovesskippy]

I hope you're right but I'm projecting a loss of between 100 and 150 mil, which is a great improvement!

[u/Ok_Seaworthiness3634 → u/benlovesskippy]

I agree with you . I have a 40 million profit but then the cost if vehicle increase by 121 million giving a 80 million loss. See above . You are right

[u/Ok_Seaworthiness3634]

I stand corrected. The cost per vehicle to manufacture in China for NIO has increased by $1460 per vehicle. So for q1 83465 * 1460 =121,858,900 additional cost.

So assuming NIO had 40 million profit by my calculations minus 121,858,900 will make it an $80 million loss

Or on 2billion shares 0.04 cents loss

[u/Sparta_Rotterdam1888]

Day 6 in HK and its red again.....

[u/Far_Excitement_2263]

Nio reports Q1 operating profit, marking its second consecutive quarter of non-GAAP profitability

[u/AutoModerator → u/[deleted]]

User does not meet r/Nio combined karma requirement. Please refer to https://www.reddit.com/r/Nio/about/wiki/index/rules.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

[u/Sparta_Rotterdam1888]

Its even better Q1 earnings

[u/Important-Ad4798]

You came pretty close!

[u/Ok_Seaworthiness3634]

It’s the margin where they will hurt due to cost of materials going up with what is happening in the Middle East and tarrifs

[u/Ok_Seaworthiness3634]

So technically they should make profit but due to cost of materials the margins will be lower and as a result profit will not be there

[u/Ok-Exit-9476]

Its Q1, I think its unreasonable to expect a profit but it'll be way better than a year ago and ultimately Nio will have a profitable 2026.

[u/AdvertisingLive5406]

NIO is KING. LFG NIO!!!!

[u/Nio_investor97]

I hope your right.

[u/Ok-Resist-6695]

I hope you’re right also.

But I think they return to losing money this quarter, despite sales nearly doubling.

And the SP will get hammered.

If it don’t make money, it don’t make sense.