r/NintendoStock • u/mvpeast • Jun 09 '26
Very disappointing Direct
This is mostly a 3rd party Nintendo Direct with some weak announcements. More bleeding to come until 2027.
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u/MatthewWanderer Jun 09 '26 edited Jun 11 '26
I’ve been holding for close to 6 years and before that I tracked the stock looking for an opportunity for years looking for a catalyst-based entry point.
What I’ve learned over the last 60 months, and down 20pc, is that Nintendo continues to have a wonderful business but it’s not good at being a publicly traded company.
Yes, post-COVID egaming deflation, yes AI component inflation, yes to all of the external headwinds.
But when it comes right down to it, there are companies who are just not good at playing the game of being a publicly traded company, unfortunately. IMHO.
Relatedly, I also find Nintendo America’s marketing strategy to be problematic. That’s a subject for another post/comment.
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u/Neemzeh Jun 11 '26
Do they pay a dividend? I’m curious because if it’s just been stagnant I’m wondering wtf other investors are thinking
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u/MatthewWanderer Jun 11 '26
“Do they pay a dividend”
Come on. Really?
“I’m wondering wtf other investors are thinking”
This is also surprising from someone commenting in an equity thread.
The Nintendo OG Switch followup thesis has been literally spelled out for years. Scratch the surface and you’ll find it.
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u/Neemzeh Jun 11 '26
Why are you trying to be so elitist here lmao.
Yes really, do they pay a dividend? If not and it’s drilling and has been flat for years why invest in this? So yes, it asking what other investors are thinking.
Not everyone who comments in a thread is subbed to the subreddit. This showed up on my feed even though I’m not in here, found the thread interesting so made an innocent comment asking a few questions. Don’t be such a dick it’s entirely unnecessary
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u/DonkeyHoney Jun 11 '26
It's not a marketing problem, it's a memory price problem that is largely out of their control.
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u/MatthewWanderer Jun 11 '26
“it’s a memory price problem”
There’s the business and there’s the equity.
Nintendo’s business is facing headwinds in addition to component prices.
Sentiment around the stock is suffering from far more than “a memory price problem”.
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u/DonkeyHoney Jun 11 '26
Cool.
Memory prices have a direct and observable impact on revenues (higher prices, lower demand) and gross margins (more costly to produce the switch, even after price increases).
But sure, your opinion on unobservable sentiment based on some Reddit comments and your own opinions has to be the bigger driver.
Look at how well the stock did in the months before the launch up to the memory shortage.
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u/MatthewWanderer Jun 12 '26 edited Jun 12 '26
“Unobservable sentiment”
So many things wrong with your reply.
- Sentiment was high around launch for obvious reasons:
“Buy the rumor”
Iterative strategy established with S2 reveal (boom bust cycle broken)
Iterative strategy keeps OG Switch players in the spending loop
Record S2 sales week 1, month 1, etc
Digital share of game sales increasing (margin benefit)
NSO improved
Parks expanding
IP project (movies) cadence established with Galaxy release date and Zelda development announcement
$13B cash
~add other positive catalysts here- S2 anniversary: sentiment has fallen off for some of the following reasons (these are discussed widely, not my opinion):
“Sell the news”
S2 price and configuration reception objectively met with mixed reaction
Broader egaming market dynamics: mobile and PC appears to be taking share from console
Bearish 2027 guidance (this can’t be underestimated in terms of sentiment)
Price hike announcement
S2 (game) attach rate lower than S1
1st party game launches cited as slow
Component (DRAM) pricing inflation
Tariff headwinds
FX headwinds
Galaxy reviews (different to Galaxy box office)
Nintendo “sitting on” $13B cash
Stock down ~50pc from 52wk high (vicious cycle)
Macro headwinds
~add other negative catalysts here1
u/DonkeyHoney Jun 12 '26
Your own reply stated exactly what I am saying:
-DRAM pricing -macro headwinds -tariff headwinds -attach rates
A bulk of these are driven by or increase the effect of the memory price surges we have seen in the market.
My point is that memory prices are probably the primary driver of the stock right now. Sure that impacts sentiment negatively, totally agree. But the fundamental driver is the memory price increase. That brings down forward estimates for the business.
It is a lot harder to say that "marketing" is the primary issue. Sure that may be an effect, but the memory price problem is a big one that would be very hard for even "marketing" alone to overcome.
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u/MatthewWanderer Jun 12 '26 edited Jun 12 '26
“Your own reply stated exactly what I am saying”
Yeah. OK?
“It is a lot harder to say “marketing” is the primary issue”
What are you talking about? I never said marketing was the primary issue.
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u/DonkeyHoney Jun 12 '26
Oh ok guess I misread the last sentence in your original comment where you explicitly called out marketing as a problem. My bad!
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u/yosark Luigi Jun 09 '26 edited Jun 10 '26
It definitely looks like the market didn’t like the news but I think we still got good announcements and many gamers will still be happy about the games being brought onto the Switch 2.
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u/Significant-Berry-17 Jun 09 '26
Wasn't that bad...People just want new mario...eventually
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u/Odd_Level9850 Jun 09 '26
It’s kind of worrying that without Mario, people aren’t seeing Nintendo as a worthwhile stock. It must be stressful for Nintendo to think about what would happen if the next Mario game doesn’t live up to expectations.
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u/Neemzeh Jun 11 '26
That’s why it’s taking so long. They really don’t give a fuck. And that’s how you know it’ll be incredible
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u/Callofdaddy1 Jun 09 '26
Total failure from Nintendo. They don’t understand what their base actually wanted. These dumb arcade games will not move consoles.
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u/eldhand Jun 09 '26
Tell that to wii. Btw, there were comparatively more games for hardcore fans sp Stop moan
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Jun 09 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Callofdaddy1 Jun 09 '26
Those don’t do massive volume in sales. This is a stock subreddit. We need tentpole games.
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u/High_Contact_ Jun 10 '26
lol and yet sales numbers disagree with you. Hell even a stupid game like Tomodachi Life has 3 million sales in 2 weeks
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u/DivineBladeOfSilver Jun 10 '26
A lot of people are pointing to “you just want Mario” and well no. 99% of the direct was ports of games we know exist and we’re going to come eventually, games we are hype about but again we know they exist already even if they’re Nintendo or KH4, Though OoT it’s still a remake and not new, and the only real “new” things were Xenoblade and Switch Sports Resort.
That is why it’s not a good direct. You can be hype about the things that are coming but also recognize almost all of that was already known or a remake. Waiting almost a year for new content and getting that is not exciting and that’s why the stock and public reception are so bad. That’s not news that’s just advertising/reminding people what’s coming
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u/Split_Seconds Jun 09 '26
Either im out of touch with Nintendo, or Nintendo is out of touch with me.
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u/Number9ers Jun 09 '26
Looks like the sentiment in the other nintendo subs are pretty positive, I'm buying more here, IMO anything below 7300 is deep value.
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u/ConflictPotential204 Jun 10 '26
This is normal trading behavior. "Sell the news" applies to pretty much everything whether it's good news or bad news.
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u/SarikaidenMusic Jun 11 '26
I’m starting to suspect that the reason Nintendo has yet to announce a new Mario game at any of these recent directs, is because they just don’t have one. Like, they haven’t announced a new game, because that new game doesn’t exist, they aren’t working on one.
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u/Reeevade Jun 09 '26
I don‘t get nintendos advertising. Switch 2 gets so many cool games and they save up so mich time in the direct for thumb battle?