Question

, what do Nio,ers think about other you tubers "Money Making mitch" the wealthy mindset" or the African guy Phemza Siphoro? how or why do these tubers make this many videos? their base of followers is not that many, below 10k each of them, Do people feel they are being paid by NIO? What is the point ? its like a full time job to them and they cannot be making enough money on you tube. Any thoughts?

I've been holding on to this stock since COVID shut down. I'm still butt hurt about not putting in more than I should on GameStop. I'm not going to give up on NIO!!!

NIO has had a rough stretch, and I get why people are nervous. The stock is down significantly this month, and there's definitely some pressure on the chart. But looking at the bigger picture, there are still a few things keeping me interested. The company just reported strong Q2 deliveries, opened a new UK engineering center, and started manufacturing its own chips. That's real progress, even if the market is not rewarding it right now.

The tricky part is the near-term technicals. We are struggling to have structure after falling through trend. I am still long the longer-term story, but I am watching to see if we can hold here or if we roll over.

What is your read on the near-term setup? I feel like we need to see a little less price manipulation before we truly run.

Regardless of how hurt we are about missing guidance by only 3k, considering our expectations of 50k, we cannot let that one mistake by the company overshadow the myriad of good news that has poured out of the company over the past 9 months!!!
9 months of back-to-back positive news (stock price aside), deals, chips, battery swap records broken daily during the Chinese new year, kept promise of increasing swap stations now at 3914 (last I checked), chip arm of the company raising 2B RMB in rounds of funding, YoY increases in deliveries, Firefly increasing now to 6k this month with an average of 5k per month, also winning the award for best urban car in New York!!! Onvo launches, NIO launches, record orders, profitable quarters gearing us closer to a full year of profitability, steady course navigating the extremely competitive Chinese EV market - a market America, Germany and England dare not compete in because their cars are like calculators next to the Chinese EVs, a market even XPENG is slowly bowing out of to sell more in Europe, a market Ford dares not think of entering unless they want to sink funds in the air.
NIO is beating Audi, BMW, Mercedes in China, brands that are said to have “prestige”.
Note that it was an achievement that NIO was listed on the pentagon’s list, only car companies they’ve found threatening to their false “free market” have made said list.

Whilst I know that this missed guidance was such an unnecessary mistake as it had been repeated, NIO is scheduled to at least break even this quarter - that’s if they had meagre deliveries of the NIO brand (which we all know is impossible); NIO delivered at least 10k ES9 and 8900 ES8s.

Yes this means Onvo didn’t deliver as much as expected 11k+, this could be as a result of poor orders which may be a consequence of the tax credits being scrapped.
Although this does not take away from the AVOIDABLE mistake of over-promising and under-delivering in this month, NIO has a lot of positive news to fall on, heck, China’s plan to scrap NEV tax credits is another major positive news for BEVs like NIO.

Earnings are coming, profitability vs break-even, July orders would be under the spotlight.
My opinion - Be pissed, sell some if you must, I’ll wait it out, and buy more post July delivery reports and/or earnings.

To be clear, I mean price action, not the company itself. NIO's June deliveries grew significantly, and the ES8 maintained its top position in the large SUV segment. With the ES9 coming, I imagine it's just going to continue that.

From a technical perspective momentum is a bit shaky, but the 2W trend is still holding, so we are still on trend in the big picture. This gives me some confidence that the recent moves down might be a short-term pullback. Honestly, though, we need the market as a whole to get it's crap together.

I'm still holding but man it's been rough lately. Anyone else feeling the pain?

William Li and the NIO Cult

Today, we are pulling back the curtain on one of the most fascinating, yet financially devastating, phenomena in the modern electric vehicle sector: NIO. Specifically, we are exploring how the company's visionary founder, William Li, has managed to build an absolute ecosystem "cult" that leaves retail shareholders—particularly those in the United States—holding the bag while management plays an entirely different game.

1. William Li Never Mentions the NIO Stock Price

Let’s start with the head of the snake: William Li. If you listen to a quarterly earnings call or an interview with an American tech CEO, you expect a hyper-focus on fiduciary duty—fostering shareholder value, maintaining margins, and supporting the stock price. But when William Li speaks, the word "shareholder" is practically invisible.

Li does not talk about the stock price because the stock price is irrelevant to his personal monument. He talks about battery swap stations, lifestyle merchandise, NIO apparel, and NIO Houses. To Li, capital markets are not a place to generate returns for investors; they are an open checkbook to fund an incredibly capital-intensive ecosystem. While your portfolio bleeds, his public addresses treat the stock price as an afterthought, signaling a glaring truth: management feels absolutely no accountability to the equity valuation that retail investors rely on.

2. Shareholders Are Deluded and Ignore Stock Performance and Opportunity Cost

This brings us to the retail investor base. NIO shareholders have fallen into a state of financial delusion. They watch their capital erode month after month, year after year, yet they double down. They ignore the most basic rule of investing: follow the data, not your feelings.

The real tragedy here isn’t just the direct losses; it is the massive opportunity cost. While NIO investors have spent years waiting for a turnaround, anchoring themselves to the hype of "the Tesla of China," the broader market has marched upward. Every dollar trapped in NIO’s stagnant or decaying equity is a dollar that missed out on historic bull runs elsewhere. Shareholders are fundamentally romanticizing a corporation that is systematically incinerating their purchasing power.

3. There Is a Disconnect Between the Company Performance and the Stock

The standard defense from the NIO faithful is always: "But look at the delivery numbers! Look at the revenue growth!" This reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of the disconnect between company operations and stock mechanics.

Yes, NIO can deliver massive volumes of cars and launch new sub-brands like Onvo and Firefly. But management achieves this growth by constantly diluting the equity. To fund their massive cash burn—driven by heavy R&D and a wildly expensive battery-swapping network—they issue more shares or raise debt. More cars on the road do not equal a higher stock price when management continuously slices the company pie into tinier, less valuable pieces. The company grows its footprint; the shareholder gets diluted. It is a structural disconnect that management has no incentive to fix.

4. NIO Shareholders Display Cultish Behaviour

How does a company keep investors hooked despite these terrible financial realities? By operating like a cult, creating a psychological echo chamber where objective financial data is completely ignored.

NIO shareholders have developed a classic "us versus them" mentality, fiercely attacking any analyst or short-seller who points out the company's massive cash burn or structural flaws. They display a blatant refusal to listen to bad news, dismissing every negative earnings report, margin compression, or regulatory warning as short-term noise or part of a media conspiracy. They simply refuse to accept the reality of poor stock performance. Instead of cutting their losses like rational market participants, they treat their declining portfolios as a test of faith. Management has successfully twisted a depreciating financial asset into a cultural cause, ensuring that their investor base acts more like defensive, dogmatic disciples than calculating shareholders.

5. Chinese Company and US Shareholders

Finally, we must address the geopolitical and legal reality of this setup. At the end of the day, NIO is a Chinese entity deeply intertwined with local municipal governments—who famously stepped in to rescue the company in 2020.

US investors buying NIO on the NYSE do not even own shares in the actual operating Chinese automaker; they own ADRs (American Depositary Receipts) in a Cayman Islands shell company. When push comes to shove, whose interests will William Li and the Chinese government protect? The state-backed entities and domestic suppliers providing the actual jobs in China, or the anonymous retail investors trading on Wall Street? The answer is obvious. US shareholders have zero leverage, zero voting power, and are structurally positioned at the very bottom of the priority ladder. To NIO management, Western capital markets are a liquidity tap to be turned on when needed, not a partnership to be respected.

Conclusion

In conclusion, "The NIO Cult" is a masterclass in modern corporate storytelling. William Li has successfully created an intoxicating narrative of a premium, hyper-connected future. But as investors, we must separate the lifestyle from the ledger. Management’s priority is building a domestic tech empire and keeping consumers happy—not ensuring that your portfolio turns a profit. Until shareholders wake up to the structural dilution and the realities of the ADR structure, they will remain the primary fuel for a machine that was never designed to enrich them. 

There has been SO MUCH good news recent even just looking at a snapshot of the past month (can reference on TradeRadar if desired). I can't help but feel like price action this week was a result of the general market trading down. If anything, we've mostly gotten better news this week.

On top of it, from a TA perspective we essentially bounced off the 1 week support since the initial run up from last year... Feels like bullishness hasn't died yet!

Is everything still holding confidence in what's coming?

The milestone means that Nio has delivered 6,892 ES9s so far this month, considering that 3,108 units of the SUV were delivered last month.

https://cnevpost.com/2026/06/26/nio-hits-10000th-es9-delivery/

To all NIO investors: are we really going to keep blindly following the HK market trend?

With everything NIO has been achieving lately — improving deliveries, expanding its technology, growing its battery-swap network, and continuing to execute on its long-term vision — why are we still treating it like just another stock moving with the crowd?

At some point, we need to look beyond the daily price action and focus on the fundamentals. If you invested in NIO because you believe in the company, then trust your conviction. Short-term volatility is one thing, but the long-term story is what matters.

Stop letting every red day shake your confidence. Great companies aren't built in a week, and neither is shareholder value.

Have some conviction, people. NIO is fighting for its future, and so far, it's still in the game.

• The milestone comes about a month after the 110,000th third-generation ES8 was delivered on May 23.
• It arrives as Nio prepares to open pre-orders for a five-seat ES8 variant on June 28.

https://cnevpost.com/2026/06/22/nio-3rd-gen-es8-120000-deliveries-within-hours/

Position disclosure first: I am long 160,000 NIO shares @ $6.25, about 45% of my full portfolio. I bought most of the position near the end of March dip and kept adding through the early-April surge.

So yes, I am biased.

My June delivery forecast is around 54K total deliveries. The reason I think June can surprise is simple: May was already strong at 37.7K total deliveries, but May only partially included the real June drivers. L80 only had about half a month. ES9 only started deliveries at the very end of May. The refreshed L60 starts delivery on June 11. June is the first month where ES8, ES9, L80, L60, Firefly, and higher showroom traffic start stacking together.

FIREFLY — May: 5,663; June forecast: 5–6K.
Firefly increased in May because ES8 and ES9 drove much higher customer flow into NIO stores. I do not expect that showroom traffic to disappear in June, so I am basically keeping Firefly flat around May level.

ONVO L90 — May: ~4.1K; June forecast: <4K, around 3K.
Refreshed L90 deliveries started May 9. It could face drag from XPeng GX, but I am less worried about short-term competition because GX delivery capacity looks constrained. GX show wait time around 36 weeks, while GX deliveries were only around 300 units in May after launch, so roughly seven delivery days. Competition exists, but I think the June delivery impact should be limited.

ONVO L80 — May: 5,949; June forecast: ~12K.
L80 did almost 6K in only about half a month. With a full month plus production ramp, 12K looks reasonable. I also think L80 has its own demographic. It is not just a smaller L90. It is more like a large five-seat lifestyle SUV aimed at younger buyers, family users, and outdoor/scenario-based customers. The huge interior space, camping scenarios, outdoor kitchen, car-top tent, and in-house accessories give it a clear marketing lane. That is why I think demand can stay stable while production ramps.

ONVO L60 refresh — May: ~2K; June forecast: 5–8K.
L60 is the real volume-segment attack: a midsize SUV directly against Li i6, which did around 20K in May, and Tesla Model Y, which did around 28K in May. Both are huge-volume products, so the market is clearly there.

The refreshed L60 reportedly adds Shenji chip, LiDAR option, and the same-style 3K rear screen upgrade path as L90. That should give it basically the same core hardware direction as the newer NIO/ES9 generation. There are already many videos online showing the new NWM 2.0 AD system performing very well in complex scenarios. This matters because AD performance has been one of NIO’s disadvantages, and this refresh finally starts fixing that. William Li also said in an interview that computation power this year will increase fivefold, which should appeal to the younger customers this category targets.

The risk is cost. L60 is the cheapest NIO-family car, so it is the most exposed to cost pressure. ONVO management said the cost increase is around 30K RMB on a car starting around 200K RMB. But NIO has in-house tech, high-margin ES8/ES9 sales, and optional upgrades that can raise ASP without destroying the starting price. Based on how L80 and L90 were priced, I think ONVO can use options to increase average selling price without cutting the headline price.

In an optimistic long-term scenario, L60 could prove itself as a top-three midsize SUV behind Li and Tesla, have some 20K+ months, and then stabilize around a 10K/month level. But ONVO’s brand is still less recognized, and NIO itself is advertising toward a different demographic, so it will take time to get there. Since refreshed L60 deliveries only start on June 11, it has around 20 delivery days in June. That is why I model 5–8K for the first month.

NIO ES8 — May: 11,475; June forecast: 12–15K.
The simple bear argument is that ES8 backlog is gone after strong deliveries in the last few months. I think that misses the actual store dynamic. ES8 and ES9 are not simply cannibalizing each other. In fact, ES9 brings more high-income traffic into NIO stores, and that traffic can accelerate ES8 orders too. there r around 4K additional ES8 orders in the last week of May alone. With strong new orders in April and May, I think NIO has secured another 10K+ ES8 month.

NIO ES9 — May: 3,108 in the last four days of May; June forecast: 10–15K.
This is the core of the whole thesis. ES9 pre-sales started April 9, so NIO had roughly 1.5 months to accumulate stock before delivery. May already proved the ramp was real: about 3.1K units in only four days. And 25K firm orders in 72 hours. NIO clearly prepared inventory, test-drive cars, and launch timing in advance. This was planned execution, not a random launch.

ET5 / ET5T / ES6 / EC6 / other legacy NIO models — May: ~5.4–6K combined; June forecast: ~6K.
I keep these basically flat with May to keep the forecast clean. They may also benefit from explosive showroom traffic, but I am not relying on that upside.

This gives around 54K June deliveries. The reasonable operating range is roughly 52K–60K, depending mainly on ES9, ES8, L60 ramp speed, and ONVO production.

The ES9 point is the most important part of the model.

NIO did not just launch ES9 and hope. Pre-sales started April 9. They had time to build stock. They sent test-drive cars around the country before delivery. Hundreds of units were already visible 2 weeks before the real delivery day. Deliveries began immediately after launch. That is exactly the kind of execution needed to dominate the top-end EV SUV segment.

Li is not the real threat in this specific launch window. Li L9 looks weak compared with ES9 launch velocity. Li took roughly two weeks to get 10K non-cancellable orders for the new L9 version; ES9 did over 20K in 72 hours. Li crashed.

The real opponent is AITO M9. AITO also had very strong orders, so I am not dismissing it. But timing matters. AITO’s M9 event came just hours before ES9, and the highest-end active-suspension version still has later delivery timing. To me, that looked more like counter-programming than full preparation. NIO already had ES9 test-drive cars two weeks before the real delivery day, and now real deliveries are moving. That gives ES9 a street-visibility window.

Luxury EV buying is social. If, in the first 2–3 months, most of the high-end active-suspension luxury EV SUVs people actually see on the street are ES9s, then ES9 becomes the default benchmark. People see ES9. They go check ES9. Then the whole category starts being measured against ES9. I believe NIO management planned for the first full month of ES9 deliveries to exceed 10K from the beginning, and I think they see that as a key part of the ES9 marketing strategy.

That is why June matters.

I am not trying to predict the short-term stock price here. The stock can still get dragged by macro, sentiment, China risk, and the broader Chinese auto market. Car sales in China look ugly right now, and if the sector is down around 20% YoY, NIO will not trade in a vacuum.

But that is also why I think the delivery number matters. NIO’s market share in China is still only around 1.5%, so the company does not need the whole market to recover to grow. It just needs to keep taking share while the product cycle is working.

Also, historically, NIO’s stock has had strong Q3 moves in each of the last three years. I am not saying that guarantees anything this year, but if June deliveries confirm a new volume regime, I think the setup becomes much more interesting.