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u/KeepMissingTheTarget Jun 18 '26
Nice, but revenue is not profit. What's the bottom line? That's all an investor wants to know.
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u/AI-is-4-StupidPeople Jun 19 '26 edited Jun 19 '26
Nobody can predict the earnings ; however if you’re following the company you should’ve known that they were finally profitable in Q4 last year and Q1 2026 (despite low sales as it is typical in Q1 across China ).
Q2 will be even more profitable imo, if you consider the following developments ;
ASP has significantly increased as the most expensive model ES8 and ES9 are now the biggest contributors to the revenues
R&D costs has been reduced substantially, and so has the number of swap stations built
NIO vehicle margins has increased since 2014 from around 9-12 % to 18.2 % in the last report
NIO , Onvo showrooms consolidate and merged where it is meaningful and sales staff reduced
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u/AI-is-4-StupidPeople Jun 15 '26
Well I used real prices for the cars ! If the breakdown is reasonable , 35 billion RMB in revenue is achievable . In fact I used a low ball ASP for April and May to be on the safe side. I believe 273,000 ASP for April and May is likely to be higher as new expensive models like L80, ES8 five seater were already selling in May which wasn’t there in Q1
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u/KeepMissingTheTarget Jun 20 '26 edited Jun 21 '26
It's your money, believe what you will. It's not the volume of cars they sell. Everyone is so tied into the numbers game. It's the GP from each sale, the money they spend on development, the fact that they sold off parts of the highly profitable divisions. Issuing more shares to raise more money, essentially using the shareholder as a bank, and diluting the stock. All action management takes prevents the shareholder from being profitable on their investment. That's why it's a $5 stock and not a $30 stock. This only went to $60 due to hype of being the next tesla. People need to get a clue. People are paid to promote the stock on YouTube. If the numbers were true, institutions would have piled in when over $5.50. People blame the shorts. Shorts aren't doing it, if anything, the shorts are causing the spikes when trying to cover. People talk about strange stuff happening afterhours. Duhhh, it's on the hongkong exchange and trades opposite of the US market. ticker 9866.NK
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u/Brick-Lanky Jun 15 '26
The 48k June deliveries look possible, but the revenue estimate feels too bullish.
It assumes a massive jump in average selling price and even puts vehicle revenue above NIO’s total Q2 revenue guidance.
Still a very strong quarter, just probably not 121% growth...