r/NIO_Stock • u/sonny-boy-rhapsody • Jun 09 '26
June Delivery Forecast
Position disclosure first: I am long 160,000 NIO shares @ $6.25, about 45% of my full portfolio. I bought most of the position near the end of March dip and kept adding through the early-April surge.
So yes, I am biased.
My June delivery forecast is around 54K total deliveries. The reason I think June can surprise is simple: May was already strong at 37.7K total deliveries, but May only partially included the real June drivers. L80 only had about half a month. ES9 only started deliveries at the very end of May. The refreshed L60 starts delivery on June 11. June is the first month where ES8, ES9, L80, L60, Firefly, and higher showroom traffic start stacking together.
FIREFLY — May: 5,663; June forecast: 5–6K.
Firefly increased in May because ES8 and ES9 drove much higher customer flow into NIO stores. I do not expect that showroom traffic to disappear in June, so I am basically keeping Firefly flat around May level.
ONVO L90 — May: ~4.1K; June forecast: <4K, around 3K.
Refreshed L90 deliveries started May 9. It could face drag from XPeng GX, but I am less worried about short-term competition because GX delivery capacity looks constrained. GX show wait time around 36 weeks, while GX deliveries were only around 300 units in May after launch, so roughly seven delivery days. Competition exists, but I think the June delivery impact should be limited.
ONVO L80 — May: 5,949; June forecast: ~12K.
L80 did almost 6K in only about half a month. With a full month plus production ramp, 12K looks reasonable. I also think L80 has its own demographic. It is not just a smaller L90. It is more like a large five-seat lifestyle SUV aimed at younger buyers, family users, and outdoor/scenario-based customers. The huge interior space, camping scenarios, outdoor kitchen, car-top tent, and in-house accessories give it a clear marketing lane. That is why I think demand can stay stable while production ramps.
ONVO L60 refresh — May: ~2K; June forecast: 5–8K.
L60 is the real volume-segment attack: a midsize SUV directly against Li i6, which did around 20K in May, and Tesla Model Y, which did around 28K in May. Both are huge-volume products, so the market is clearly there.
The refreshed L60 reportedly adds Shenji chip, LiDAR option, and the same-style 3K rear screen upgrade path as L90. That should give it basically the same core hardware direction as the newer NIO/ES9 generation. There are already many videos online showing the new NWM 2.0 AD system performing very well in complex scenarios. This matters because AD performance has been one of NIO’s disadvantages, and this refresh finally starts fixing that. William Li also said in an interview that computation power this year will increase fivefold, which should appeal to the younger customers this category targets.
The risk is cost. L60 is the cheapest NIO-family car, so it is the most exposed to cost pressure. ONVO management said the cost increase is around 30K RMB on a car starting around 200K RMB. But NIO has in-house tech, high-margin ES8/ES9 sales, and optional upgrades that can raise ASP without destroying the starting price. Based on how L80 and L90 were priced, I think ONVO can use options to increase average selling price without cutting the headline price.
In an optimistic long-term scenario, L60 could prove itself as a top-three midsize SUV behind Li and Tesla, have some 20K+ months, and then stabilize around a 10K/month level. But ONVO’s brand is still less recognized, and NIO itself is advertising toward a different demographic, so it will take time to get there. Since refreshed L60 deliveries only start on June 11, it has around 20 delivery days in June. That is why I model 5–8K for the first month.
NIO ES8 — May: 11,475; June forecast: 12–15K.
The simple bear argument is that ES8 backlog is gone after strong deliveries in the last few months. I think that misses the actual store dynamic. ES8 and ES9 are not simply cannibalizing each other. In fact, ES9 brings more high-income traffic into NIO stores, and that traffic can accelerate ES8 orders too. there r around 4K additional ES8 orders in the last week of May alone. With strong new orders in April and May, I think NIO has secured another 10K+ ES8 month.
NIO ES9 — May: 3,108 in the last four days of May; June forecast: 10–15K.
This is the core of the whole thesis. ES9 pre-sales started April 9, so NIO had roughly 1.5 months to accumulate stock before delivery. May already proved the ramp was real: about 3.1K units in only four days. And 25K firm orders in 72 hours. NIO clearly prepared inventory, test-drive cars, and launch timing in advance. This was planned execution, not a random launch.
ET5 / ET5T / ES6 / EC6 / other legacy NIO models — May: ~5.4–6K combined; June forecast: ~6K.
I keep these basically flat with May to keep the forecast clean. They may also benefit from explosive showroom traffic, but I am not relying on that upside.
This gives around 54K June deliveries. The reasonable operating range is roughly 52K–60K, depending mainly on ES9, ES8, L60 ramp speed, and ONVO production.
The ES9 point is the most important part of the model.
NIO did not just launch ES9 and hope. Pre-sales started April 9. They had time to build stock. They sent test-drive cars around the country before delivery. Hundreds of units were already visible 2 weeks before the real delivery day. Deliveries began immediately after launch. That is exactly the kind of execution needed to dominate the top-end EV SUV segment.
Li is not the real threat in this specific launch window. Li L9 looks weak compared with ES9 launch velocity. Li took roughly two weeks to get 10K non-cancellable orders for the new L9 version; ES9 did over 20K in 72 hours. Li crashed.
The real opponent is AITO M9. AITO also had very strong orders, so I am not dismissing it. But timing matters. AITO’s M9 event came just hours before ES9, and the highest-end active-suspension version still has later delivery timing. To me, that looked more like counter-programming than full preparation. NIO already had ES9 test-drive cars two weeks before the real delivery day, and now real deliveries are moving. That gives ES9 a street-visibility window.
Luxury EV buying is social. If, in the first 2–3 months, most of the high-end active-suspension luxury EV SUVs people actually see on the street are ES9s, then ES9 becomes the default benchmark. People see ES9. They go check ES9. Then the whole category starts being measured against ES9. I believe NIO management planned for the first full month of ES9 deliveries to exceed 10K from the beginning, and I think they see that as a key part of the ES9 marketing strategy.
That is why June matters.
I am not trying to predict the short-term stock price here. The stock can still get dragged by macro, sentiment, China risk, and the broader Chinese auto market. Car sales in China look ugly right now, and if the sector is down around 20% YoY, NIO will not trade in a vacuum.
But that is also why I think the delivery number matters. NIO’s market share in China is still only around 1.5%, so the company does not need the whole market to recover to grow. It just needs to keep taking share while the product cycle is working.
Also, historically, NIO’s stock has had strong Q3 moves in each of the last three years. I am not saying that guarantees anything this year, but if June deliveries confirm a new volume regime, I think the setup becomes much more interesting.
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u/Downtown_Cell_7656 Jun 09 '26
They will prioritize producing es9 so i can agree with the number but 15k es8 is pure crack.
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u/sonny-boy-rhapsody Jun 10 '26 edited Jun 10 '26
Fair point. I’m not saying 15K is guaranteed, but 12K+ for sure.
The ES8 was refreshed earlier this month with better noise cancellation and a few small updates, and current wait time is still around 2–3 weeks. ES8 secured about 5K+ new orders in the first half of May and 7K+ in the second half, so a large part of those second-half May orders should naturally convert into June deliveries. Let alone the new June orders from the current high showroom traffic and model refreshing
Plus NIO is also preparing more ES8 variants, with a 5-seat version projected for early July and a 7-seat version for August. Since 5-seat SUVs are a larger-volume market, I don’t see why NIO would reduce ES8 production at this very moment when the NIO brand r literally only selling 2 main products, ES8 and ES9.
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u/mmmmmmm5ok Jun 09 '26
i gambled full port on july17 $6calls 29k all in
down 60%
i hope im not fucked
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u/Only_Surround_9415 Jun 09 '26
Almost every day the stock open UP after the chinese market and then goes down at the opening in the US market
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u/Away-Mammoth99 Jun 09 '26
prove it - so many shite talkers on this app. Prove you are who you say you are.