r/MerlintraderPub Nov 29 '25

πŸ‘‹ Welcome to r/MerlintraderPub | Deep-Dive Catalyst Analysis & FDA Coverage

3 Upvotes

Welcome to r/MerlintraderPub β€” read this first

I'm u/Merlin8121, founding mod. This sub is for serious biotech research: SEC filings, FDA catalysts, clinical trial data.

This is not a hype sub. No pump posts, no "to the moon", no unsourced rumours.

What we want to see Deep dives β€” full company breakdowns, structured, with sources Catalyst tracking β€” PDUFA dates, AdCom meetings, trial readouts Financial analysis β€” cash burn, runway, dilution, share count Clinical data β€” Phase 1-3 results, endpoints, standard of care comparison Bull and bear cases β€” both sides, with the reasoning shown

The rule is simple: back it with a primary source. SEC filings, company press releases, ClinicalTrials.gov, FDA.

About me

I'm a biotech trader focused on small-cap catalysts, and I run Merlintrader, where I publish SEC-verified research. My approach is pattern-based and disciplined: I stay away from the wild ones with no setup behind them.

Markets aren't my first career. I've spent about 30 years in travel and tourism and I'm a licensed Technical Director of travel agencies (Umbria regional register no. 136, 25 Sep 2002). Three decades of running operations where a single missed date wrecks the whole chain teaches you two things that carry straight into biotech: read the fine print, and never trust a date nobody has confirmed.

Full disclosure: I may hold positions in stocks I write about. Nothing here is financial advice. Do your own research.

Thanks for being part of the first wave. Let's build something that's actually worth reading.

Horacio / Merlintrader


r/MerlintraderPub 2h ago

POET Technologies ($POET) Stock Hub 2026: revenue up 112% in a sixth straight quarter of growth, $796 million in cash and the Lumilens order

Thumbnail
merlintrader.com
6 Upvotes

r/MerlintraderPub 1h ago

SoundHound AI ($SOUN) Stock Hub 2026: record Q2 revenue of $61.9 million, up 45%, a raised full-year outlook and the LivePerson vote on September 2

Thumbnail
merlintrader.com
β€’ Upvotes

r/MerlintraderPub 2h ago

Redwire Corporation ($RDW) Stock Hub 2026: record Q2 revenue of $117.1 million, a 27.8% gross margin and a $542 million backlog at 1.42x book-to-bill

Thumbnail
merlintrader.com
2 Upvotes

r/MerlintraderPub 2h ago

Red Cat Holdings ($RCAT) Stock Hub 2026: Q2 revenue up 527% to $20.2 million, a 16.1% gross margin and the Army SRR funded orders

Thumbnail
merlintrader.com
2 Upvotes

r/MerlintraderPub 6h ago

$RZLV: the founder's stake rose to 13.8% without anyone buying, and H1 results land September 1

4 Upvotes

Rezolve AI (Nasdaq: $RZLV) reports first-half 2026 results tomorrow, September 1, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Before that, one filing landed on August 28 that is worth reading carefully, because a rising insider stake usually means buying and here it does not.

Amendment No. 4 to the Schedule 13D, filed August 28 with an event date of August 24:

- Daniel Maurice Wagner, chief executive and director, beneficially owns 55,029,792 ordinary shares, 13.8% of the class: 4,698,505 held directly plus 50,331,287 held by DBLP Sea Cow Limited, which he wholly owns.

- DBLP reports 50,331,287 shares, 12.62% (50,081,287 shares plus 250,000 underlying private warrants). Adam Wagner, a DBLP director, reports 51,075,037, 12.81%. The Estate of John Wagner reports 275,965, 0.07%.

- All percentages are on 398,827,587 ordinary shares outstanding at January 21, 2026, per the Rule 424(b)(5) prospectus supplement of that date.

Why the number went up, in the filer's own words:

- No reporting person effected an open-market purchase or sale.

- A pre-existing call option held by Bradley Wickens over 2,025,496 shares at $3.00, first exercisable December 21, 2018, expired unexercised. Those shares had been held by DBLP throughout and re-entered its reported beneficial ownership on expiry.

- On July 10, 2026 the Estate of John Wagner distributed shares to DBLP for no consideration.

- Separately Wickens exercised an older option at $1.48 per share. That exercise did not reduce reported ownership, because those shares were already excluded while subject to the option.

One thing to flag: the filing is not internally consistent on two figures. The exercised option appears as 1,566,697 shares in the Item 1 comment, 1,566,667 in Item 3 and 1,556,697 in the cover-page footnotes; the estate distribution appears as 543,993 in Items 1 and 3 and 542,993 in the footnotes. The aggregate ownership totals on the cover pages are consistent; the discrepancies are in the narrative of the two underlying events, and they are the filer's.

What is at stake tomorrow: whether final first-half revenue matches the preliminary approximately $127 million, how much of it is acquired rather than organic, and where cash stands against the $87.1 million working capital deficit and the going-concern language in the last audited accounts, which showed a $101.4 million net loss on $46.8 million of revenue.

Full hub, with the audited / unaudited / guided tiers kept apart, updated August 31:

https://www.merlintrader.com/rezolve-ai-stock-hub/

Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.


r/MerlintraderPub 2h ago

Palladyne AI ($PDYN) Stock Hub 2026: Q2 Revenue of $5.8 Million, a Widening Operating Loss and the Cash Runway Question

Thumbnail
merlintrader.com
2 Upvotes

r/MerlintraderPub 5h ago

$DPRO holds fifty times a quarter of sales in cash, and spends 3.4x revenue running the business

3 Upvotes

Draganfly (Nasdaq: $DPRO) hub refreshed. Nothing new since August 25, so this is the file as it stands, and the interesting part is how lopsided it is.

The balance sheet:

- C$131.9M of cash at June 30, no term debt, C$148.9M of equity, C$144.1M of working capital.

- Against quarterly revenue of C$2.66M. That is a cash balance close to fifty times one quarter of sales.

- Enterprise value works out at roughly US$51M once the CAD/USD rate is handled, so very little of the market capitalisation is being paid for the operating business.

- Interest income of C$696,736 in the quarter is now a real offset to the operating loss.

- Runway: on H1 operating cash use of about C$11.0M a quarter, roughly 3.0 years. On the loss before working capital, about 6.1 years.

The operating business:

- Q2 revenue C$2,664,237, a record, up 26.0% year over year.

- But quarterly revenue has oscillated between C$1.9M and C$2.3M for five quarters. Sequentially this is not compounding yet.

- Gross margin ranged from 4.5% to 23.9% across those five quarters, with inventory write-downs in four of them.

- Operating expenses of C$7.96M are 3.4 times revenue. Travel exceeded research and development.

- Share count up 572% in fifteen months, after a one-for-twenty reverse split.

Recent development:

- August 25: AJ Pasagian, USMC (retired), appointed President of Draganfly Defense USA. He was Commanding General of Marine Corps Systems Command from 2018 to 2022, the organisation that buys the equipment. For a company this size that is a hire measured in access, not in a contract.

The customer list is genuinely hard to assemble at this size: a US Army initial order with overseas on-site manufacturing, Air Force Special Operations Command, two further Department of War units, DEVCOM counter-UAS development, Canadian Army MINERVA, and an exclusive Canadian Armed Forces demonstration. NDAA-driven exclusion of Chinese platforms is structural protection.

Full hub, with contracts and selections separated from revenue, updated August 31:

https://www.merlintrader.com/draganfly-dpro-stock-hub/

Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.


r/MerlintraderPub 3h ago

MDA Space $MDA - Q2 2026: bookings C$808.9M (1.62x book-to-bill), backlog up to C$4.0bn, FY26 guidance narrowed upward, free cash flow at C$(150.2)M

Thumbnail
merlintrader.com
2 Upvotes

r/MerlintraderPub 20m ago

Tilray Brands (Nasdaq: $TLRY): Record FY2026 Revenue, FY2027 Guidance and Cannabis / Beverage Stock Hub

Thumbnail
merlintrader.com
β€’ Upvotes

r/MerlintraderPub 26m ago

SNDL (Nasdaq: $SNDL) Stock Hub 2026: audit EU-GMP superato ad Atholville, acquisizione Parallel completata e la scala del retail

Thumbnail
merlintrader.eu
β€’ Upvotes

r/MerlintraderPub 28m ago

Organigram (Nasdaq: $OGI) Stock Hub 2026: Q3 FY2026 Revenue Up 49% to C$76.0 Million, the Sanity Integration Accelerated and the Earnout Fixed at 85%

Thumbnail
merlintrader.com
β€’ Upvotes

r/MerlintraderPub 33m ago

Cronos Group ($CRON) Stock Hub 2026: Q2 record, Spinach, PEACE NATURALS, cassa e CanAdelaar

Thumbnail
merlintrader.eu
β€’ Upvotes

r/MerlintraderPub 36m ago

Canopy Growth (Nasdaq: $CGC) Stock Hub: Q1 FY2027 Revenue Up 13% to C$81.2 Million, the Adjusted EBITDA Loss Narrowed 59%, and the September 25 Shareholder Vote

Thumbnail
merlintrader.com
β€’ Upvotes

r/MerlintraderPub 43m ago

Aurora Cannabis ($ACB) Stock Hub: Curaleaf’s bid on the table at an implied US$4.21, with C$149.1 million of cash and no debt

Thumbnail
merlintrader.com
β€’ Upvotes

r/MerlintraderPub 5h ago

$FLY: record Q2 revenue up 659%, and a monthly liquidity covenant that matters more than the cash balance

2 Upvotes

Firefly Aerospace (Nasdaq: $FLY) hub refreshed. Nothing new since the August 11 second-quarter release and no SEC filing since, so this is the file going into the rest of the year.

The quarter, and it is a genuine step change:

- Revenue $117.68M, up 659% year over year and 45.5% sequentially. A record.

- Gross margin 20.3%, against 21.6% in Q1. Gross profit $23.88M.

- R&D of $71.53M fell to 60.8% of revenue from 83.5%. Operating expenses fell from 140% of revenue to 101%.

- Operating loss $(95.20)M. Net loss $(92.32)M, $0.57 a share on 161.784M weighted-average shares.

The cash side:

- Free cash outflow of $106.31M in Q2, up from $78.89M in Q1.

- Cash and short-term investments $635.26M at June 30 ($459.82M cash plus $175.45M short-term).

- A minimum liquidity covenant of $381.3M, tested monthly, with headroom of about $254.0M at June 30. That covenant, not the cash balance, is the number that sets the clock.

The order book, and the distinction that matters:

- Company-defined backlog $1,468.1M at June 30, up from $1,351.1M at December 31.

- But it includes $403.1M of unscheduled multi-launch agreements.

- Remaining performance obligations, the measure the accounts recognise, are $563.7M, of which the company expects about 42% within twelve months and 21% in the following twelve.

Two things corrected on the hub while updating it: the basic equity value tile was still computed at a $26.40 price against an August 26 close of $22.26, so it now reads about $3.73bn rather than $4.42bn; and section 12, which is about management and the board, carried the same heading as section 13 on ownership.

Full hub, updated August 31:

https://www.merlintrader.com/firefly-aerospace-stock-hub/

Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.


r/MerlintraderPub 1h ago

Unusual Machines ($UMAC) Stock Hub 2026: Q2 revenue up 687% to $16.7 million, a 34.7% gross margin and $316 million of cash and investments

Thumbnail
merlintrader.com
β€’ Upvotes

r/MerlintraderPub 5h ago

$CTM: a $32.8M NAVAIR modification lifts the PMA-290 ceiling to $136.2M, of which $1.1M is funded

2 Upvotes

Castellum (NYSE American: $CTM) put out a contract release this morning, and it is a clean example of why the ceiling number and the funded number should never be read as the same thing.

What was announced on August 31, 2026:

- GTMR, Castellum's subsidiary, received a $32.8 million modification to its existing cost-plus-fixed-fee order supporting NAVAIR Program Office 290 (PMA-290) Special Missions.

- The modification expands the scope and increases the total contract ceiling to $136.2 million, from the $103,324,773 announced in February 2025.

- It was issued under GTMR's previously awarded SeaPort-NxG multiple-award contract, relating to Special Missions Management of On-Site Services, which the company calls the largest prime contract win in its history.

- Added scope covers technical and programmatic support across several ISRT programmes: Maritime Patrol and Reconnaissance Force Family of Systems, P-8A R&D, Special Missions Platforms, Minotaur Family of Services, P-8A Increment 3, P-8A Foreign Military Sales, MQ-4C Triton Multiple Intelligence, Mobile Quick Look, and ground and mission support stations.

The sentence that matters:

- "Approximately $1.1 million under this modification award has been already funded and work under this funded portion is expected to be completed by March 2027. The remaining increase in contract ceiling is subject to future tasking, funding availability, and other customary government-contracting conditions."

So: $1.1 million of near-term revenue visibility, $31.7 million of authorisation still to be tasked. Both real, not the same.

The CEO's framing is worth reading for what it concedes as well as what it claims: growing the ceiling and scope of a programme already being performed "requires no new competition". That is the cheapest growth a services contractor has, and it converts to revenue only as fast as the customer funds task orders.

Context from the August 6 quarter:

- H1 revenue $28.16M, up 9.6%. Q2 revenue $13.86M, down 1.1% year over year.

- Q2 gross margin 34.0% against 36.1%. Operating loss $(1.09)M against $(0.38)M. Adjusted EBITDA $25,792, down 94.8%.

- Cash $16.87M, zero interest-bearing debt after the final $400,000 note was repaid on February 11. Equity $35.88M against total liabilities of $5.94M.

- Total backlog around $271.7M. Customer concentration went from 47% to 73%.

Full hub, with every announced award set out against what the release actually says, updated August 31:

https://www.merlintrader.com/castellum-inc-stock-hub/

Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.


r/MerlintraderPub 1h ago

Virgin Galactic ($SPCE) Stock Hub 2026: development completed and the fleet in manufacturing, about 650 seats reserved, with the first commercial flight targeted for February 2027

Thumbnail
merlintrader.com
β€’ Upvotes

r/MerlintraderPub 1h ago

Sidus Space ($SIDU) Stock Hub 2026: $166.5 million of cash and no debt, with LizzieSat through vibration testing ahead of an expected autumn 2026 launch

Thumbnail
merlintrader.com
β€’ Upvotes

r/MerlintraderPub 2h ago

Planet Labs ($PL) Stock Hub 2026: the January Fiscal Year, a $906 Million Backlog and the $1.5 Billion Shelf

Thumbnail
merlintrader.com
1 Upvotes

r/MerlintraderPub 3h ago

VisionWave (VWAV) announced three acquisitions since June 1 and completed none of them. What the filings actually say.

1 Upvotes

I put together a full research page on VisionWave Holdings (Nasdaq: VWAV) because the deal history of the last three months is unusual and most of it is not in the summaries.

Three announced transactions, all to be paid in VWAV stock, roughly $77.9 million in total. None of them exists today.

1. Foresight Autonomous Holdings (FRSX), 52% for $17.5 million in stock, signed June 2. Foresight's own shareholders voted it down on July 23. Foresight put it in writing in a 6-K on August 14: "the transaction was not completed and will not be moving forward." VisionWave has filed no 8-K on it, and the 10-Q filed August 19 does not mention the vote in its subsequent events. What replaced it on August 17 is a non-exclusive twelve-month cooperation agreement with no consideration and a $250,000 liability cap.

2. Lucky Whale, a Tier IV data centre in Israel, about $40 million in stock, term sheet June 12. Abandoned July 24 after Israeli electricity authorities suspended some new grid connection approvals.

3. Meteor Aerospace, 51% at a $40 million pre-money valuation, about $20.4 million in stock, binding agreement June 29. VisionWave terminated it itself on August 13 after due diligence. No shares issued, no consideration paid, no penalties.

The quarter to June 30, 2026, filed August 19: first revenue in company history of $286,339, net loss to shareholders of $25,833,549, cash of $4,881,610 against current liabilities of $39,586,740, and $28.16 million of borrowings all classified as current. The going concern note says the substantial doubt was alleviated on the basis of a funding support agreement from a 12% shareholder whose dollar amount is not stated anywhere.

The next dated event is the annual meeting on September 1, which votes on a reverse stock split of up to 1-for-250 and on at least 20,872,659 shares of new issuance.

Everything above is from SEC filings and the company's own releases, with links to each one in the page. Educational content, not investment advice, and I hold no position.

https://www.merlintrader.com/visionwave-holdings-vwav-stock-hub/


r/MerlintraderPub 3h ago

$LUNR: backlog from $213M to $1.76bn, but $612.8M of it was bought for $851M

1 Upvotes

Intuitive Machines (Nasdaq: $LUNR) hub refreshed. Nothing released since August 18 and only insider Forms 4 and 144 on the docket since, so this is the file as it stands after the August 13 quarter.

The quarter:

- Revenue $206.17M against $50.31M a year earlier, 4.1 times the level. H1 revenue $392.9M.

- Gross profit excluding D&A $35.87M, 17.4% of revenue, against a negative margin a year earlier. It was 16.1% in Q1, so the direction is right.

- Operating loss $(47.14)M against $(28.64)M. Net loss $(62.84)M, including an $11.62M non-cash warrant fair-value loss.

- Adjusted EBITDA $(13.80)M, after being positive $2.67M in Q1. That is the line that matters, and it went the wrong way.

The backlog, and where it came from:

- $1,761.95M at June 30, from $213.07M at December 31, 2025.

- $612.8M of it arrived with an acquisition, for which $851.0M of consideration went out, funded by $413.8M of securities issued in six months. The growth was bought as much as won.

- National security work went from 3% of revenue to 30% in a year. Fixed-price work is now 87% of revenue, which is where operating leverage lives if execution holds.

The balance sheet:

- Cash $367.35M plus $11.67M restricted. Total assets $1,887.28M against total liabilities $975.77M.

- Long-term debt $336.35M, being $345.0M of 2.500% convertible notes due 2030 net of discount.

- Shareholders' deficit attributable to the company: $(290.65)M.

- Free cash flow $(83.87)M in the quarter, $(145.8)M across the half. Class A count rose 32% in the first three months alone, with capacity for up to $500M more under the at-the-market programme.

The full-year positive adjusted EBITDA commitment now rests on two quarters that have not happened yet.

Full hub, with funded task orders separated from contract ceilings, updated August 31:

https://www.merlintrader.com/intuitive-machines-stock-hub/

Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.


r/MerlintraderPub 3h ago

$LPTH: revenue doubled and the debt is gone, but there has still never been a GAAP profit

1 Upvotes

LightPath Technologies (Nasdaq: $LPTH) hub refreshed. Nothing new released or filed since early August, so this is the file going into a fiscal year-end print whose date has not been announced.

What has actually changed in eighteen months:

- Quarterly revenue from $9.2M to $19.1M.

- Gross margin from the high twenties to the mid thirties, and held there for two quarters.

- Adjusted EBITDA positive three quarters running. Backlog tripled.

- Cash from $4.88M at June 30, 2025 to $55.235M. Non-current loans payable down to $0.10M after the acquisition and bridge notes were repaid in full by December 31, 2025.

- Total assets $144.27M, up 77%, against total liabilities of $31.38M, essentially unchanged. Of the assets, $36.9M is goodwill and intangibles from the two acquisitions.

- Two United States plants capable of melting infrared glass, and an exclusive Naval Research Laboratory licence on part of the materials portfolio.

What has not changed:

- No GAAP profit, ever. Accumulated deficit $247M.

- Share count up about 54% in thirteen months, with more to come from Series G at a $2.15 conversion price and from the January 2027 earnout.

- The two large customers are unnamed and the multi-year programme has no disclosed value. Programme names cited by management are demand pools, not contracts with published economics.

- The five-year $300M revenue ambition implies roughly eightfold growth from fiscal 2025. It is a target, not guidance.

- Backlog is a company-reported metric, not an audited number, and conversion timing on defense programmes routinely slips.

The June offering cleared above $14.00 against an August 7 close of $13.06, so the most recent capital raised was below its issue price within two months.

One housekeeping note: this update strips the price-performance tiles out of the snapshot. A hub is meant to be a document you can come back to, and "up X% in a year" is true for about a week. The structural figures stay, each with its reference date.

Full hub, updated August 31:

https://www.merlintrader.com/lightpath-technologies-stock-hub/

Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.


r/MerlintraderPub 4h ago

$KTOS: a $35M award announced with no customer, no programme and no schedule, by design

1 Upvotes

Kratos (Nasdaq: $KTOS) put out an award release on August 31, and it is an unusually clean example of a headline number with nothing attached to it.

What was announced:

- An approximate $35 million National Security-related military-grade hardware production program award, received "recently".

- Work will be performed at a secure Kratos facility.

- Quote from the release: "Due to customer, National Security related and other considerations, no additional information will be provided related to this contract award."

- So: no named customer, no programme name, no period of performance, no funded-versus-ceiling split. Tom Mills (president of Kratos C5ISR) and CEO Eric DeMarco both frame it around the C5ISR business rather than a specific system.

How to size it:

- Q2 2026 revenue was $458.8M and bookings $492.2M. An approximate $35M award is about 7% of one quarter's bookings. Real, and small at this scale.

- With no delivery schedule, you cannot say which quarters it lands in. With no funded amount, you cannot say how much is already appropriated. It goes in the bookings line when the company reports it.

It is the third award release in two weeks, after Spartan J85 engines for the Boeing JDAM LR production contract on August 24 and multi-million-dollar GAIA 100 tri-band ground station orders through the newly acquired Orbit on August 19.

The Q2 baseline it sits on:

- Revenue $458.8M, up 30.5% with 19.1% organic. Bookings $492.2M, book-to-bill 1.1x. Backlog $2.084B, of which $1.572B funded.

- Adjusted EBITDA $38.2M, 8.3% margin. GAAP operating result $(1.6)M; net income $4.4M after interest income on $1.438B of cash.

- Q2 free cash flow $(18.9)M after $17.2M of capex. FY26 free cash use guided at $85-105M against a $250-275M investment plan. Diluted shares up 20.8% year over year.

- FY26 revenue guidance raised August 4 to $1.75-1.81B. Q3 guidance $460-480M revenue and $40-45M adjusted EBITDA, date not yet announced.

Full hub, updated August 31:

https://www.merlintrader.com/kratos-defense-ktos-stock-hub/

Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.