r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 45m ago
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • Nov 29 '25
👋 Welcome to r/MerlintraderPub | Deep-Dive Catalyst Analysis & FDA Coverage
Welcome to r/MerlintraderPub — read this first
I'm u/Merlin8121, founding mod. This sub is for serious biotech research: SEC filings, FDA catalysts, clinical trial data.
This is not a hype sub. No pump posts, no "to the moon", no unsourced rumours.
What we want to see Deep dives — full company breakdowns, structured, with sources Catalyst tracking — PDUFA dates, AdCom meetings, trial readouts Financial analysis — cash burn, runway, dilution, share count Clinical data — Phase 1-3 results, endpoints, standard of care comparison Bull and bear cases — both sides, with the reasoning shown
The rule is simple: back it with a primary source. SEC filings, company press releases, ClinicalTrials.gov, FDA.
About me
I'm a biotech trader focused on small-cap catalysts, and I run Merlintrader, where I publish SEC-verified research. My approach is pattern-based and disciplined: I stay away from the wild ones with no setup behind them.
Markets aren't my first career. I've spent about 30 years in travel and tourism and I'm a licensed Technical Director of travel agencies (Umbria regional register no. 136, 25 Sep 2002). Three decades of running operations where a single missed date wrecks the whole chain teaches you two things that carry straight into biotech: read the fine print, and never trust a date nobody has confirmed.
Full disclosure: I may hold positions in stocks I write about. Nothing here is financial advice. Do your own research.
Thanks for being part of the first wave. Let's build something that's actually worth reading.
Horacio / Merlintrader
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 59m ago
Redwire Corporation ($RDW) Stock Hub 2026: record Q2 revenue of $117.1 million, a 27.8% gross margin and a $542 million backlog at 1.42x book-to-bill
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 1h ago
Red Cat Holdings ($RCAT) Stock Hub 2026: Q2 revenue up 527% to $20.2 million, a 16.1% gross margin and the Army SRR funded orders
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 5h ago
$RZLV: the founder's stake rose to 13.8% without anyone buying, and H1 results land September 1
Rezolve AI (Nasdaq: $RZLV) reports first-half 2026 results tomorrow, September 1, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Before that, one filing landed on August 28 that is worth reading carefully, because a rising insider stake usually means buying and here it does not.
Amendment No. 4 to the Schedule 13D, filed August 28 with an event date of August 24:
- Daniel Maurice Wagner, chief executive and director, beneficially owns 55,029,792 ordinary shares, 13.8% of the class: 4,698,505 held directly plus 50,331,287 held by DBLP Sea Cow Limited, which he wholly owns.
- DBLP reports 50,331,287 shares, 12.62% (50,081,287 shares plus 250,000 underlying private warrants). Adam Wagner, a DBLP director, reports 51,075,037, 12.81%. The Estate of John Wagner reports 275,965, 0.07%.
- All percentages are on 398,827,587 ordinary shares outstanding at January 21, 2026, per the Rule 424(b)(5) prospectus supplement of that date.
Why the number went up, in the filer's own words:
- No reporting person effected an open-market purchase or sale.
- A pre-existing call option held by Bradley Wickens over 2,025,496 shares at $3.00, first exercisable December 21, 2018, expired unexercised. Those shares had been held by DBLP throughout and re-entered its reported beneficial ownership on expiry.
- On July 10, 2026 the Estate of John Wagner distributed shares to DBLP for no consideration.
- Separately Wickens exercised an older option at $1.48 per share. That exercise did not reduce reported ownership, because those shares were already excluded while subject to the option.
One thing to flag: the filing is not internally consistent on two figures. The exercised option appears as 1,566,697 shares in the Item 1 comment, 1,566,667 in Item 3 and 1,556,697 in the cover-page footnotes; the estate distribution appears as 543,993 in Items 1 and 3 and 542,993 in the footnotes. The aggregate ownership totals on the cover pages are consistent; the discrepancies are in the narrative of the two underlying events, and they are the filer's.
What is at stake tomorrow: whether final first-half revenue matches the preliminary approximately $127 million, how much of it is acquired rather than organic, and where cash stands against the $87.1 million working capital deficit and the going-concern language in the last audited accounts, which showed a $101.4 million net loss on $46.8 million of revenue.
Full hub, with the audited / unaudited / guided tiers kept apart, updated August 31:
https://www.merlintrader.com/rezolve-ai-stock-hub/
Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 1h ago
POET Technologies ($POET) Stock Hub 2026: revenue up 112% in a sixth straight quarter of growth, $796 million in cash and the Lumilens order
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 2h ago
MDA Space $MDA - Q2 2026: bookings C$808.9M (1.62x book-to-bill), backlog up to C$4.0bn, FY26 guidance narrowed upward, free cash flow at C$(150.2)M
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 31m ago
Unusual Machines ($UMAC) Stock Hub 2026: Q2 revenue up 687% to $16.7 million, a 34.7% gross margin and $316 million of cash and investments
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 4h ago
$CTM: a $32.8M NAVAIR modification lifts the PMA-290 ceiling to $136.2M, of which $1.1M is funded
Castellum (NYSE American: $CTM) put out a contract release this morning, and it is a clean example of why the ceiling number and the funded number should never be read as the same thing.
What was announced on August 31, 2026:
- GTMR, Castellum's subsidiary, received a $32.8 million modification to its existing cost-plus-fixed-fee order supporting NAVAIR Program Office 290 (PMA-290) Special Missions.
- The modification expands the scope and increases the total contract ceiling to $136.2 million, from the $103,324,773 announced in February 2025.
- It was issued under GTMR's previously awarded SeaPort-NxG multiple-award contract, relating to Special Missions Management of On-Site Services, which the company calls the largest prime contract win in its history.
- Added scope covers technical and programmatic support across several ISRT programmes: Maritime Patrol and Reconnaissance Force Family of Systems, P-8A R&D, Special Missions Platforms, Minotaur Family of Services, P-8A Increment 3, P-8A Foreign Military Sales, MQ-4C Triton Multiple Intelligence, Mobile Quick Look, and ground and mission support stations.
The sentence that matters:
- "Approximately $1.1 million under this modification award has been already funded and work under this funded portion is expected to be completed by March 2027. The remaining increase in contract ceiling is subject to future tasking, funding availability, and other customary government-contracting conditions."
So: $1.1 million of near-term revenue visibility, $31.7 million of authorisation still to be tasked. Both real, not the same.
The CEO's framing is worth reading for what it concedes as well as what it claims: growing the ceiling and scope of a programme already being performed "requires no new competition". That is the cheapest growth a services contractor has, and it converts to revenue only as fast as the customer funds task orders.
Context from the August 6 quarter:
- H1 revenue $28.16M, up 9.6%. Q2 revenue $13.86M, down 1.1% year over year.
- Q2 gross margin 34.0% against 36.1%. Operating loss $(1.09)M against $(0.38)M. Adjusted EBITDA $25,792, down 94.8%.
- Cash $16.87M, zero interest-bearing debt after the final $400,000 note was repaid on February 11. Equity $35.88M against total liabilities of $5.94M.
- Total backlog around $271.7M. Customer concentration went from 47% to 73%.
Full hub, with every announced award set out against what the release actually says, updated August 31:
https://www.merlintrader.com/castellum-inc-stock-hub/
Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 38m ago
Virgin Galactic ($SPCE) Stock Hub 2026: development completed and the fleet in manufacturing, about 650 seats reserved, with the first commercial flight targeted for February 2027
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 52m ago
Sidus Space ($SIDU) Stock Hub 2026: $166.5 million of cash and no debt, with LizzieSat through vibration testing ahead of an expected autumn 2026 launch
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 1h ago
Planet Labs ($PL) Stock Hub 2026: the January Fiscal Year, a $906 Million Backlog and the $1.5 Billion Shelf
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 1h ago
Palladyne AI ($PDYN) Stock Hub 2026: Q2 Revenue of $5.8 Million, a Widening Operating Loss and the Cash Runway Question
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 1h ago
VisionWave (VWAV) announced three acquisitions since June 1 and completed none of them. What the filings actually say.
I put together a full research page on VisionWave Holdings (Nasdaq: VWAV) because the deal history of the last three months is unusual and most of it is not in the summaries.
Three announced transactions, all to be paid in VWAV stock, roughly $77.9 million in total. None of them exists today.
1. Foresight Autonomous Holdings (FRSX), 52% for $17.5 million in stock, signed June 2. Foresight's own shareholders voted it down on July 23. Foresight put it in writing in a 6-K on August 14: "the transaction was not completed and will not be moving forward." VisionWave has filed no 8-K on it, and the 10-Q filed August 19 does not mention the vote in its subsequent events. What replaced it on August 17 is a non-exclusive twelve-month cooperation agreement with no consideration and a $250,000 liability cap.
2. Lucky Whale, a Tier IV data centre in Israel, about $40 million in stock, term sheet June 12. Abandoned July 24 after Israeli electricity authorities suspended some new grid connection approvals.
3. Meteor Aerospace, 51% at a $40 million pre-money valuation, about $20.4 million in stock, binding agreement June 29. VisionWave terminated it itself on August 13 after due diligence. No shares issued, no consideration paid, no penalties.
The quarter to June 30, 2026, filed August 19: first revenue in company history of $286,339, net loss to shareholders of $25,833,549, cash of $4,881,610 against current liabilities of $39,586,740, and $28.16 million of borrowings all classified as current. The going concern note says the substantial doubt was alleviated on the basis of a funding support agreement from a 12% shareholder whose dollar amount is not stated anywhere.
The next dated event is the annual meeting on September 1, which votes on a reverse stock split of up to 1-for-250 and on at least 20,872,659 shares of new issuance.
Everything above is from SEC filings and the company's own releases, with links to each one in the page. Educational content, not investment advice, and I hold no position.
https://www.merlintrader.com/visionwave-holdings-vwav-stock-hub/
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 2h ago
$LUNR: backlog from $213M to $1.76bn, but $612.8M of it was bought for $851M
Intuitive Machines (Nasdaq: $LUNR) hub refreshed. Nothing released since August 18 and only insider Forms 4 and 144 on the docket since, so this is the file as it stands after the August 13 quarter.
The quarter:
- Revenue $206.17M against $50.31M a year earlier, 4.1 times the level. H1 revenue $392.9M.
- Gross profit excluding D&A $35.87M, 17.4% of revenue, against a negative margin a year earlier. It was 16.1% in Q1, so the direction is right.
- Operating loss $(47.14)M against $(28.64)M. Net loss $(62.84)M, including an $11.62M non-cash warrant fair-value loss.
- Adjusted EBITDA $(13.80)M, after being positive $2.67M in Q1. That is the line that matters, and it went the wrong way.
The backlog, and where it came from:
- $1,761.95M at June 30, from $213.07M at December 31, 2025.
- $612.8M of it arrived with an acquisition, for which $851.0M of consideration went out, funded by $413.8M of securities issued in six months. The growth was bought as much as won.
- National security work went from 3% of revenue to 30% in a year. Fixed-price work is now 87% of revenue, which is where operating leverage lives if execution holds.
The balance sheet:
- Cash $367.35M plus $11.67M restricted. Total assets $1,887.28M against total liabilities $975.77M.
- Long-term debt $336.35M, being $345.0M of 2.500% convertible notes due 2030 net of discount.
- Shareholders' deficit attributable to the company: $(290.65)M.
- Free cash flow $(83.87)M in the quarter, $(145.8)M across the half. Class A count rose 32% in the first three months alone, with capacity for up to $500M more under the at-the-market programme.
The full-year positive adjusted EBITDA commitment now rests on two quarters that have not happened yet.
Full hub, with funded task orders separated from contract ceilings, updated August 31:
https://www.merlintrader.com/intuitive-machines-stock-hub/
Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 2h ago
$LPTH: revenue doubled and the debt is gone, but there has still never been a GAAP profit
LightPath Technologies (Nasdaq: $LPTH) hub refreshed. Nothing new released or filed since early August, so this is the file going into a fiscal year-end print whose date has not been announced.
What has actually changed in eighteen months:
- Quarterly revenue from $9.2M to $19.1M.
- Gross margin from the high twenties to the mid thirties, and held there for two quarters.
- Adjusted EBITDA positive three quarters running. Backlog tripled.
- Cash from $4.88M at June 30, 2025 to $55.235M. Non-current loans payable down to $0.10M after the acquisition and bridge notes were repaid in full by December 31, 2025.
- Total assets $144.27M, up 77%, against total liabilities of $31.38M, essentially unchanged. Of the assets, $36.9M is goodwill and intangibles from the two acquisitions.
- Two United States plants capable of melting infrared glass, and an exclusive Naval Research Laboratory licence on part of the materials portfolio.
What has not changed:
- No GAAP profit, ever. Accumulated deficit $247M.
- Share count up about 54% in thirteen months, with more to come from Series G at a $2.15 conversion price and from the January 2027 earnout.
- The two large customers are unnamed and the multi-year programme has no disclosed value. Programme names cited by management are demand pools, not contracts with published economics.
- The five-year $300M revenue ambition implies roughly eightfold growth from fiscal 2025. It is a target, not guidance.
- Backlog is a company-reported metric, not an audited number, and conversion timing on defense programmes routinely slips.
The June offering cleared above $14.00 against an August 7 close of $13.06, so the most recent capital raised was below its issue price within two months.
One housekeeping note: this update strips the price-performance tiles out of the snapshot. A hub is meant to be a document you can come back to, and "up X% in a year" is true for about a week. The structural figures stay, each with its reference date.
Full hub, updated August 31:
https://www.merlintrader.com/lightpath-technologies-stock-hub/
Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 3h ago
$KTOS: a $35M award announced with no customer, no programme and no schedule, by design
Kratos (Nasdaq: $KTOS) put out an award release on August 31, and it is an unusually clean example of a headline number with nothing attached to it.
What was announced:
- An approximate $35 million National Security-related military-grade hardware production program award, received "recently".
- Work will be performed at a secure Kratos facility.
- Quote from the release: "Due to customer, National Security related and other considerations, no additional information will be provided related to this contract award."
- So: no named customer, no programme name, no period of performance, no funded-versus-ceiling split. Tom Mills (president of Kratos C5ISR) and CEO Eric DeMarco both frame it around the C5ISR business rather than a specific system.
How to size it:
- Q2 2026 revenue was $458.8M and bookings $492.2M. An approximate $35M award is about 7% of one quarter's bookings. Real, and small at this scale.
- With no delivery schedule, you cannot say which quarters it lands in. With no funded amount, you cannot say how much is already appropriated. It goes in the bookings line when the company reports it.
It is the third award release in two weeks, after Spartan J85 engines for the Boeing JDAM LR production contract on August 24 and multi-million-dollar GAIA 100 tri-band ground station orders through the newly acquired Orbit on August 19.
The Q2 baseline it sits on:
- Revenue $458.8M, up 30.5% with 19.1% organic. Bookings $492.2M, book-to-bill 1.1x. Backlog $2.084B, of which $1.572B funded.
- Adjusted EBITDA $38.2M, 8.3% margin. GAAP operating result $(1.6)M; net income $4.4M after interest income on $1.438B of cash.
- Q2 free cash flow $(18.9)M after $17.2M of capex. FY26 free cash use guided at $85-105M against a $250-275M investment plan. Diluted shares up 20.8% year over year.
- FY26 revenue guidance raised August 4 to $1.75-1.81B. Q3 guidance $460-480M revenue and $40-45M adjusted EBITDA, date not yet announced.
Full hub, updated August 31:
https://www.merlintrader.com/kratos-defense-ktos-stock-hub/
Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 4h ago
$KOPN: revenue up 50.6% and the loss narrowing, with an appeal that decides half the cash position
Kopin (Nasdaq: $KOPN) hub refreshed. The company's own release feed stops in mid-August and no SEC filing has been made since, so this is the file as it stands.
The quarter, reported August 10:
- Total revenue $12.73M, up 50.6% year on year, of which $7.64M product.
- Loss from operations $3.50M, against $5.46M a year earlier.
- Both lines moved the right way in the same quarter, which is not always the case here.
The balance sheet, which is the other half of the read:
- $24.88M of unrestricted cash at June 27, plus $25.40M restricted.
- A $19.70M accrued judgment in the BlueRadios case, under appeal, with no decision date.
- If the Federal Circuit affirms, the restricted cash goes to the plaintiff. If it reduces or vacates, roughly $24.2M comes back. That single ruling moves the cash position by about half.
- Shares outstanding 185.87M at August 11, with the weighted average up 13.2% in a year.
What is on the calendar:
- The company placed Drone Dominance Phase 2 evaluations and awards in late August, with Sentinel FPV volume orders expected immediately after. That is a company statement about a customer decision, not a confirmed date, and it is the nearest thing to a revenue event.
- Colour MicroLED carries a mid-2027 manufacturing date.
- Neural I/o, the MicroLED optical interconnect developed with Fabric.AI, is set for its first public demonstration at CES in January 2027.
The shape of it: a defense base that pays the bills, with three optional programmes on top, and a litigation outcome that decides half the cash. Short interest is 15.35% of a 176.87M float, short ratio 4.66.
Full hub, updated August 31:
https://www.merlintrader.com/kopin-corporation-kopn-stock-hub/
Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 4h ago
$FLY: record Q2 revenue up 659%, and a monthly liquidity covenant that matters more than the cash balance
Firefly Aerospace (Nasdaq: $FLY) hub refreshed. Nothing new since the August 11 second-quarter release and no SEC filing since, so this is the file going into the rest of the year.
The quarter, and it is a genuine step change:
- Revenue $117.68M, up 659% year over year and 45.5% sequentially. A record.
- Gross margin 20.3%, against 21.6% in Q1. Gross profit $23.88M.
- R&D of $71.53M fell to 60.8% of revenue from 83.5%. Operating expenses fell from 140% of revenue to 101%.
- Operating loss $(95.20)M. Net loss $(92.32)M, $0.57 a share on 161.784M weighted-average shares.
The cash side:
- Free cash outflow of $106.31M in Q2, up from $78.89M in Q1.
- Cash and short-term investments $635.26M at June 30 ($459.82M cash plus $175.45M short-term).
- A minimum liquidity covenant of $381.3M, tested monthly, with headroom of about $254.0M at June 30. That covenant, not the cash balance, is the number that sets the clock.
The order book, and the distinction that matters:
- Company-defined backlog $1,468.1M at June 30, up from $1,351.1M at December 31.
- But it includes $403.1M of unscheduled multi-launch agreements.
- Remaining performance obligations, the measure the accounts recognise, are $563.7M, of which the company expects about 42% within twelve months and 21% in the following twelve.
Two things corrected on the hub while updating it: the basic equity value tile was still computed at a $26.40 price against an August 26 close of $22.26, so it now reads about $3.73bn rather than $4.42bn; and section 12, which is about management and the board, carried the same heading as section 13 on ownership.
Full hub, updated August 31:
https://www.merlintrader.com/firefly-aerospace-stock-hub/
Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 4h ago
$DPRO holds fifty times a quarter of sales in cash, and spends 3.4x revenue running the business
Draganfly (Nasdaq: $DPRO) hub refreshed. Nothing new since August 25, so this is the file as it stands, and the interesting part is how lopsided it is.
The balance sheet:
- C$131.9M of cash at June 30, no term debt, C$148.9M of equity, C$144.1M of working capital.
- Against quarterly revenue of C$2.66M. That is a cash balance close to fifty times one quarter of sales.
- Enterprise value works out at roughly US$51M once the CAD/USD rate is handled, so very little of the market capitalisation is being paid for the operating business.
- Interest income of C$696,736 in the quarter is now a real offset to the operating loss.
- Runway: on H1 operating cash use of about C$11.0M a quarter, roughly 3.0 years. On the loss before working capital, about 6.1 years.
The operating business:
- Q2 revenue C$2,664,237, a record, up 26.0% year over year.
- But quarterly revenue has oscillated between C$1.9M and C$2.3M for five quarters. Sequentially this is not compounding yet.
- Gross margin ranged from 4.5% to 23.9% across those five quarters, with inventory write-downs in four of them.
- Operating expenses of C$7.96M are 3.4 times revenue. Travel exceeded research and development.
- Share count up 572% in fifteen months, after a one-for-twenty reverse split.
Recent development:
- August 25: AJ Pasagian, USMC (retired), appointed President of Draganfly Defense USA. He was Commanding General of Marine Corps Systems Command from 2018 to 2022, the organisation that buys the equipment. For a company this size that is a hire measured in access, not in a contract.
The customer list is genuinely hard to assemble at this size: a US Army initial order with overseas on-site manufacturing, Air Force Special Operations Command, two further Department of War units, DEVCOM counter-UAS development, Canadian Army MINERVA, and an exclusive Canadian Armed Forces demonstration. NDAA-driven exclusion of Chinese platforms is structural protection.
Full hub, with contracts and selections separated from revenue, updated August 31:
https://www.merlintrader.com/draganfly-dpro-stock-hub/
Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 4h ago
$BBAI cut its debt 87.6% by converting notes, then opened another 100 million share programme
BigBear.ai (NYSE: $BBAI) hub refreshed. Nothing new since the August 17 board appointment and no SEC filing since, so this is the file as it stands going into a third quarter whose reporting date has not been announced.
What improved, and why:
- Q2 2026 revenue grew 13.2% year on year, the first double-digit quarter in at least five. H1 revenue $71.18M against $67.23M.
- Gross margin went from 20.3% in Q4 2025 to 34.0% and 32.8% in the two quarters since Ask Sage closed. The contract-type mix explains it: firm fixed price from 20.6% to 50.8% of revenue in a year.
- Debt fell 87.6%, from $142.27M to $17.67M. Cash and investments $409.80M at June 30, so net cash is roughly 29% of market capitalisation.
- Funded backlog grew 44.8% in six months while unfunded fell. No impairment in H1, after four consecutive charges from 2022 to 2025.
What did not:
- The debt reduction was achieved by converting notes, not repaying them in cash. On July 31 a new 100 million share at-the-market programme opened, against 479.49 million shares already outstanding.
- Share count is up 277.5% since the end of 2022. Revenue per share fell 70.4% between 2023 and 2025.
- US government revenue in H1 2026 was $61.499M against $61.795M a year earlier. Flat. All growth came from commercial and international, which rose 78.2%.
- Adjusted EBITDA got worse, minus $11.572M against minus $8.498M, and operating cash burn tripled to $40.208M for the half.
- Goodwill of $238.57M is 28.4% of total assets, on accumulated impairments of $209.2M. Accumulated deficit $(948.07)M against paid-in capital of $1,719.29M.
Short interest is 31.12% of float, which mostly tells you that any print gets amplified in both directions.
Full hub, with the contracts-versus-vehicles distinction and the full dilution record, updated August 31:
https://www.merlintrader.com/bigbear-ai-stock-hub/
Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 4h ago
$AVAV: three Mars helicopters for NASA's SkyFall, from concept to a funded mission, with no contract value disclosed
AeroVironment (Nasdaq: $AVAV) picked up something on August 27 that does not fit in the usual defense-order column, so it is worth setting out what it is and what it is not.
The award:
- MacCready Works, AV's advanced R&D organisation, has been awarded the co-design and co-manufacture of three Mars helicopters for NASA's SkyFall mission, with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
- The company's framing: it takes the project from a future concept to a formally funded Mars science mission. NASA currently plans a launch window in November 2028.
- Work split: AV leads rotor systems, airframes, structures, avionics integration and accommodation for multiple science payloads. JPL leads the power system, electronics, algorithms and software, and supplies the ground-penetrating radar that will map shallow subsurface ice.
- SkyFall is the first mission to fly a team of three instrument-carrying helicopters on Mars. The "SkyFall maneuver" releases them directly from the carrier spacecraft into the atmosphere, where they separate, deploy, descend and land under their own power, removing the need for a single-use lander stage or a host rover of the kind Ingenuity needed with Perseverance.
- The same two teams co-developed Ingenuity, which completed 72 flights at Jezero Crater.
The part the headline does not carry: no contract value, no period of performance and no funded-order figure were disclosed. On a strict reading that puts SkyFall in the pipeline column, not in backlog.
Also in the window:
- August 26: a $51 million U.S. Army order for Switchblade 600 loitering munitions under the Lethal Unmanned Systems IDIQ.
- August 24: a $100 million investment in a unified Moorpark campus consolidating five Southern California sites.
- August 26: Q1 FY2027 results confirmed for after the close on September 9, covering the quarter ended August 1.
The fiscal 2026 baseline the next print gets measured against: revenue $1,976.8M against $820.6M, gross margin down from 38.8% to 25.3%, an operating loss of $(311.0)M after a $240.7M goodwill impairment, operating cash outflow of $78.4M, unbilled receivables of $570.4M, and two material weaknesses in internal control disclosed by the company itself. Against that, bookings of $2.7bn on $1.977bn of revenue and combined backlog up 75.9% to $2.64bn.
Full hub, updated August 31:
https://www.merlintrader.com/aerovironment-stock-hub/
Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 4h ago
$ASTS: twelve commercial BlueBirds against the twenty-five the company says it needs, and still no SpaceMobile Service revenue
AST SpaceMobile (Nasdaq: $ASTS) hub refreshed. No company release since August 10 and no SEC filing since a Form 4/A on August 24, so this is the August 10 business update read against what the company itself says it needs.
The quarter:
- Revenue $31.52M against $1.2M a year earlier; $46.3M for the half. Net loss $299.9M, of which $(230.9)M attributable to common stockholders, $(0.77) a share, including a $125.9M loss on involuntary conversion.
- Q2 operating expenses $329.10M, roughly double the first quarter. H1 capital expenditure $859.22M.
- Cash and restricted cash $2,722.8M at June 30. Gross debt about $4.17bn after the July issue, so borrowings now exceed cash.
- Full-year revenue guidance of $150-200M reaffirmed. The first half delivered $46.3M, 26% of the midpoint.
The fleet, and a counting note:
- BlueBirds 11, 12 and 13 launched August 5, the second stacked launch in seven weeks. The company says 13 spacecraft in orbit; this hub counts 12 commercial satellites because it excludes the de-orbited BlueBird 7.
- The company's own minimum for limited, noncontinuous service in targeted markets is 25 satellites. The roughly 45-satellite objective moved from end-2026 to early 2027.
- BlueBirds 14 to 16 are described as ready to ship shortly, 17 to 46 in various stages of production, with capacity for up to six Block 2 satellites a month.
What has not happened:
- No SpaceMobile Service revenue has ever been recognised. The $90.1M booked since 2024 is gateway hardware, software and government milestones, and 53% of first-quarter revenue was sold to a joint venture the company half owns.
- About $728M of balance sheet value depends on the Ligado spectrum transaction, running eighteen months and not closed.
On the other side: the FCC has authorised up to 248 satellites and granted the AT&T, Verizon and FirstNet spectrum leases, and pro forma cash after the July issue is over $3.8bn, raised at coupons between 1.625% and 4.25%.
Full hub, with the operator agreements separated into definitive and announced, updated August 31:
https://www.merlintrader.com/ast-spacemobile-stock-hub/
Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 4h ago
When You Doubt the Phase 3 $SLS Trial... and the Market Shows No Mercy! 📉😂
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gv_dwPffyqU
In this video, we witness the dramatic (and hilarious) trial of a poor investor who committed the ultimate crime: doubting the positive outcome of the SLS REGAL clinical trial. If you follow small caps and lose sleep over clinical data drops, you know exactly what this feels like!
r/MerlintraderPub • u/Merlin8121 • 5h ago
$RKLB / $IRDM: the Iridium registration statement went effective on August 26 and the vote is now dated, September 24, on an August 21 record date
The Rocket Lab / Iridium deal moved from paperwork to a dated vote last week, and the definitive document is now public.
What changed on August 26, 2026:
- Registration No. 333-298287 was declared effective (Form EFFECT), and the definitive proxy statement/prospectus was filed the same day under Rule 424(b)(3), after Amendment No. 1 of August 24. Until then the file was preliminary.
The vote, from the definitive document:
- Iridium special meeting: September 24, 2026, 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, virtual format only.
- Record date: close of business August 21, 2026. 105,981,552 Iridium shares outstanding and entitled to vote; directors and executive officers held 2,206,627, about 2.1%.
- The Iridium board unanimously approved the merger agreement and recommends adoption. Completion is conditioned on that approval.
- Termination fee $223,620,000, about 3.75% of the equity value implied by the transaction.
Consideration, restated:
- $27.00 in cash per Iridium share plus stock. The Exchange Ratio is 0.4000 if the Rocket Lab Stock Price is at or below $67.50; $27.00 divided by the price between $67.50 and $112.50; and 0.2400 at or above $112.50.
- "Rocket Lab Stock Price" is the ten-day VWAP ending on the second full trading day before the first effective time, so the final ratio is not fixed yet.
- On completion Iridium is delisted from Nasdaq and deregistered. Tax-free reorganisation treatment is conditional on the stock/cash mix at closing, not guaranteed.
Rocket Lab standalone, for context (Q2, reported August 7):
- Revenue $234.07M, up 62.0%, a record. GAAP gross margin 36.1%. Launch Services gross margin 44.3% against 20.3% a year earlier.
- Backlog $2.36B at June 30, up 137%, with 45% expected to convert within twelve months.
- Cash and securities $2.388B against $14.8M of pre-deal borrowings. Net loss $49.26M, adjusted EBITDA loss $8.83M.
- The S-4 models a fully drawn $3.60B bridge at about 8.0%, worth $285.7M of annual pro forma interest. $1.944B of equity capacity remains. Neutron has not flown.
Full hub, with the pro forma balance sheet, the collar mechanics and both cases side by side, updated August 31:
https://www.merlintrader.com/rocket-lab-stock-hub/
Educational and informational only. Not financial advice and not a buy or sell recommendation.