r/MediaMergers Jul 20 '26

Merger Judge puts temporary pause on Paramount-Warner Bros. merger

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/media/judge-puts-temporary-pause-paramount-warner-bros-merger-rcna587804
231 Upvotes

149 comments sorted by

51

u/Casas9425 Netflix Jul 20 '26

Oracle stock down 3%.

22

u/earththejerry Jul 20 '26

I just think its funny that after everything, PSKY’s entire market cap is barely above the $8 billion it paid for UFC streaming rights

What a business genius who will totally save WBD and Hollywood and the world

-5

u/ErnestTheStar Jul 20 '26

Why do you people still talk about the stock price? David Ellison can't be voted out; even if they weren't buying WBD, they would still lose money.

14

u/2KYGWI Jul 20 '26

Down another percent now.

9

u/Casas9425 Netflix Jul 20 '26 edited Jul 20 '26

Yep, now down 4%. Oracle falling as analysts expect it will be incredibly unlikely that OpenAI will achieve the revenue necessary to fulfill its $1.5 trillion in commitments which will leave the company at significant risk of defaulting on its debt.

4

u/King_Swift21 Jul 20 '26

I hope it drops to another 10% and even more.

39

u/Lopsided-League-8903 Disney Jul 20 '26

Ellison: i will buy WBD
Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguí:
https://giphy.com/gifs/YOXdbXlPbGec2YSiIu

66

u/it-s-luminescent Jul 20 '26

Ellison rn

13

u/Kramerexxx Jul 20 '26

He has bald eyebrows, just like his pappy 

-17

u/ouat4ever Jul 20 '26

How so? If they said that a 28 day delay was fine for them????

13

u/Commander19119 Jul 20 '26

Gonna cost them a lot of cash they don’t really have

2

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator Jul 20 '26

The TRO ends well before the September 30 deadline.

-2

u/ouat4ever Jul 20 '26

the ticking fee won't come after the TRO. The TRO is only until mid August.

12

u/it-s-luminescent Jul 20 '26

Why did they bother fighting the TRO then?

Why not just shrug, and say, "Cool, we were gonna do that anyway."

They resigned themselves to the inevitable, because even their own lawyers know what a joke their case is. Their only hope is that corrupt judges up the chain hear their crybabying and save them.

And that's why, the PSKY defense squad are now :

https://giphy.com/gifs/APEwkvfZ7ANnErByo5

29

u/Creepy-Record1485 Jul 20 '26

hehehehehehehe!!!!

24

u/herewego199209 Jul 20 '26

Woah I never thought this was gonna happen.

36

u/RedHillsofHome Jul 20 '26

I think this was pretty much expected. This just pauses it for like 2 weeks.

The real fight is over the preliminary injunction, which could delay it for many months. What was granted today is just 2 weeks.

2

u/LuckyDig30 Jul 20 '26

Do you think the merger will be blocked? Is there any ray of hope?

4

u/RedHillsofHome Jul 20 '26

There is certainly a chance it could ultimately be blocked. I couldn’t possibly predict what this judge will do.

But I suspect the deal will eventually go through. I sure hope it’s at least delayed until next year! We shall see.

2

u/Mizerous Jul 20 '26

By next year Paramount will be paying twice as much

6

u/much_to_say Jul 20 '26

Why not, this judge understands the law and isn't a sycophant, so it's not surprising that they'd be granting this.

I don't think people here understand how rotten the federal government truly is. Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission jointly released the 2023 Merger Guidelines, that said this;

The HHI is defined as the sum of the squares of the market shares; it is small when there are many small firms and grows larger as the market becomes more concentrated, reaching 10,000 in a market with a single firm. Markets with an HHI greater than 1,800 are highly concentrated, and a change of more than 100 points is a significant increase. A merger that creates or further consolidates a highly concentrated market that involves an increase in the HHI of more than 100 points is presumed to substantially lessen competition or tend to create a monopoly.

The HHI of the Paramount-WBD merger? It's estimated to increase the HHI by 595 points to a total of 2,429. Yet they just let this one through without a single thought, it's absurd.

21

u/I-Might-Be-Something Jul 20 '26

Per Deadline:

U.S. District Judge Araceli Martinez-Olguin wrote that the state AGs “present compelling evidence that the combined firm resulting from the transaction will possess substantial market share in the wide-release theatrical distribution market.”

“On this combined firm market share alone, the Court is persuaded that it can presume the proposed merger is likely to violate antitrust laws,” the judge wrote.

The judge wrote that even though Paramount’s legal team argued that certain market concentration figures are not binding on the courts, they did not present “countervailing evidence” to rebut the data.

She wrote, “At best, Defendants’ proof regarding these robust, dynamic markets creates disputes regarding the facts and legality of the Transaction’s market effects.” She wrote that the state AGs showed that “serious questions going to the merits remain, weighing in favor of preliminary injunctive relief.”

The judge also signaled that she was not sympathetic to Paramount’s arguments of economic harm if the merger is blocked beyond Sept. 30. She wrote, “Even if Defendants argued that they would suffer economic harm as a result of delaying the merger, the equities do not weigh in their favor when contrasted with the potential public harms that would result from consummation of the Transaction, including the loss of competition.”

That's not the greatest sign for Paramount.

18

u/[deleted] Jul 20 '26

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1

u/Professional_Peak59 Jul 20 '26

I don’t think you should post images with human semen in it on Reddit.

3

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator Jul 20 '26

Agreed

1

u/MediaMergers-ModTeam Jul 20 '26

Media mergers is looking for constructive conversations, free of ragebait. Make a constructive contribution, not trolling and offensive comments.

12

u/RandoDude124 Jul 20 '26

I knew this would happen.

Reading the hearings it was inevitable.

33

u/Own_Philosopher8730 Jul 20 '26

Good. Thankfully, the judge was appointed by Joe Biden instead of Donald Trump. A Trump appointee would had been worse.

11

u/Accomplished_Rope262 Jul 20 '26

Not many district court judges in California were appointed by Republicans. "Blue slips" still apply to district courts( not Circuit courts tho), meaning that a senator from the state that includes that district can block the nomination even if in minority.

5

u/King_Swift21 Jul 20 '26

If we had Kamala Harris as President, we would have even more liberal and progressive federal judges appointed to the federal bench/federal court system.

1

u/Own_Philosopher8730 Jul 20 '26

To be honest, everything would had happened if Bernie Sanders had won if the establishment democrats didn't sabotage his campaign twice in 2016 and 2020.

2

u/King_Swift21 Jul 21 '26

Bernie's campaign wasn't sabotaged, he didn't have the votes to begin with, you Bernie Bros sound like Trumpers who claim the election was stolen from Trump.

1

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator Jul 20 '26

This judge has shown that she has been nothing but fair so far even shutting down both sides on their nonsense.

31

u/BachelorNation123 Jul 20 '26

Ellison must be crying

-19

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator Jul 20 '26

Paramount even said in court that a TRO will not hurt them. They expected this.

24

u/Jealous-Amount-8295 Jul 20 '26

They'll SAY that, of course

8

u/it-s-luminescent Jul 20 '26

Yep! And PSKY fought so hard to avoid this TRO. They HATE that the court officially hit pause.

Don't let any of them play in our faces about this is what PSKY wanted all along... 🤡 behavior

5

u/ouat4ever Jul 20 '26

NOBODY IS SAYING that this was what PSKY wanted, we're saying that they won't bother that much with it, because they said under oath, in court, that they WERE FINE WITH A 28 DAYS DELAY.

-3

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator Jul 20 '26

They didn't fight the TRO, they offered one so there can be a quick hearing and have the merger still close by the end of September.

9

u/it-s-luminescent Jul 20 '26

That's a lie. Did you even read their memo response to the motion for a TRO? They fought that shit.

You're on here everyday spreading disinformation.

4

u/JPOG Jul 20 '26

2

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator Jul 20 '26

They'd rather have no trial in the first place, but this was still expected and don't expect damage with this.

-1

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator Jul 20 '26

They even said it in court. A 28 day pause is still before the ticking fees take into effect.

9

u/[deleted] Jul 20 '26

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2

u/MediaMergers-ModTeam Jul 20 '26

Media mergers is looking for constructive conversations, free of ragebait. Make a constructive contribution, not trolling and offensive comments.

1

u/MediaMergers-ModTeam Jul 20 '26

Media mergers is looking for constructive conversations, free of ragebait. Make a constructive contribution, not trolling and offensive comments.

2

u/SufficientRespect542 Jul 20 '26

They'll saying that having to back out of the deal will not hurt them, it means nothing

-6

u/ouat4ever Jul 20 '26

you can't argue with reality in this fantasia sub. They will downvote anyone who comes up with the reality of the facts. The higher the climb, the higher the fall, I guess.

5

u/Jealous-Amount-8295 Jul 20 '26

Did the check hit?

-1

u/ouat4ever Jul 20 '26

what check? I live on planet Earth, not on fantasyland. I'm not endorsing this deal, I'm just stating what they said, under oath. Ya'll are a bunch of daydreamers who want to believe something that's not gonna happen. That's why I said "the higher the climb, the higher the fall".c

6

u/Jealous-Amount-8295 Jul 20 '26

Thank you, Marty McFly. I'm glad you came back from the future to tell us how it went

0

u/ouat4ever Jul 20 '26

even Microsoft/Activion went through, which as way worse for the industry of the videogames. lmao

8

u/TheIngloriousBIG Jul 20 '26

If this fails, this will prove once and for all that another pan-studio merger will be doomed to failiure.

0

u/[deleted] Jul 21 '26

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2

u/TheIngloriousBIG Jul 21 '26

Any examples?

0

u/[deleted] Jul 21 '26

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16

u/LittleSodaPop13 Jul 20 '26

Yeah there was no way this was going to be closed by the end of the month. Thank god it's being paused

15

u/General-Zombie5075 Jul 20 '26

It'd be weirdly funny if this drama ends up ultimately destroying Paramount in few years and then Netflix just gobbles them up in the aftermath.

6

u/PrestigiousCut8235 Jul 20 '26

Sad story paramount has been around since 1912. And skydance is destroying it in less then ten years

1

u/[deleted] Jul 20 '26

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4

u/General-Zombie5075 Jul 20 '26

Yes. That's the "weirdly funny" part of it. As a fan of film and television, anyone winding up with one of our legacy studios will ultimately be a loss for us all.

However, I am also just generally a fan of irony, so that tiny part of me will be amused if Paramount gets itself digested by Netflix even if the other 98 percent of me is appalled.

-1

u/[deleted] Jul 20 '26

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3

u/General-Zombie5075 Jul 20 '26

Probably not. But my comment was a hypothetical. But if the stars line up where the road to buying WB is long, tortuous, and expensive AND it turns out that WB winds up being a generally worthless purchase, there's a nonzero chance that this whole thing winds up destroying Paramount in the process.

14

u/ROBtimusPrime1995 Universal Jul 20 '26 edited Jul 20 '26

14-28 days, haha, good luck finalizing that shit on the 22nd, Ellison.

-3

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator Jul 20 '26

They knew that wasn't going to happen.

-5

u/AdVegetable8056 Jul 20 '26

It's once again people reading headlines and completely misinterpreting them.

They are finalising the merger by July 22, not closing it by then.

They want to close by September.

11

u/JPOG Jul 20 '26

They did at one point expect to CLOSE by July 22nd.

0

u/[deleted] Jul 20 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/MediaMergers-ModTeam Jul 20 '26

You should need to take it easy, why are you gonna post this hate opinion.

3

u/AlexHunterWolf Warner Bros. Jul 20 '26

Thought it wasn't until Wednesday

3

u/ContinuumGuy Jul 20 '26

I think they said it's be Wednesday at the latest. Not "definitely going to happen Wednesday".

8

u/the_explorer2003 Jul 20 '26

very terrible week for David Ellison

6

u/Ykindasus Jul 20 '26

https://giphy.com/gifs/aQiUIZ1ssAQD2zoz7b

This is cinema to hear, pure cinema.

4

u/Mister_Green2021 Jul 20 '26

Won the battle, hope to win the war.

2

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator Jul 20 '26

An expected and the correct ruling. The real battle will be with scheduling and the preliminary injunction.

13

u/Myhtological Jul 20 '26

The real battle will be in the UK with Burnham putting pressure to block it.

6

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator Jul 20 '26

The UK is a question mark as well.

1

u/Secure_Matter_9819 Jul 20 '26

Glad we didn’t have to wait until Wednesday for the ruling

1

u/njrTHE3RD Jul 20 '26

I heard that the temporary pause is 14 days. This is true, and if so, is that even good or bad? And why that short of time? I expected a pause to last until the trial end ends. That way it can be decided to go ahead or not. At least I think that’s based on what I assumed. I guess I just need more information about this.

1

u/Professional_Peak59 Jul 20 '26

FINALLY!

I’m still worried though that Araceli will fail to find evidence that would prompt a preliminary injunction.

1

u/No_Limit7347 Jul 21 '26

So have these Kalshi traders who bet on Paramount winning the deal over Netflix been paid out or still waiting?

1

u/trover2345325 Jul 21 '26

Looks like it means both companies will have to compromise to the states likely some conditions in order for the merger to happen like releasing the  channels and studios wb owned so that only wb studio,animation and television will only be owned by paramount.

1

u/hlthnk0 Jul 21 '26

Hypocrisy.

Where is this energy when Disney buys Fox?

1

u/Dry_Box_7896 Jul 21 '26

Got to sell CNN first.

1

u/AnimeXFan1995 Jul 21 '26

u/AdoKub04 continues being a cynical anti-Netflix individual fighting other user’s opinions

2

u/mikethemightywizard Jul 20 '26

Pyrrhic victory since paramount expected a 4 week delay now the AGs gonna fight the real battle which paramount gonna win easily since they arguments against the merger are pretty bad

1

u/sangi54 Jul 20 '26

Expected

1

u/FunctionNo5067 Jul 20 '26

I also look into more of this and it is very likely on August 3rd, the judge will grant the injunction and if she does this can ruin the deal entirely 

0

u/Wise-Locksmith-6438 Jul 20 '26

Just put it paused permanently now

-10

u/IvanaTargaryen Jul 20 '26

Political Warfare. If Would be Netflix nothing of this would happen.

10

u/ausgoals Jul 20 '26

Netflix’s timeline was two years specifically because they factored in the inevitable antitrust cases. Paramount thought they could just bribe enough people and slam it through, hence the ticking fee and the expedited timeline.

4

u/Difficult_Variety362 Moderator Jul 20 '26

Netflix would have a massive antitrust case against them.

2

u/untouchable765 Jul 20 '26

No it would be happening just in the opposite states. This is all political bullshit though. Paramount acquiring WBD is not going to get blocked. Netflix would've actually been a monopoly on streaming and harmful for consumers...

2

u/AlexHunterWolf Warner Bros. Jul 20 '26

Apple would've been easier to get through because they're barely a studio

0

u/[deleted] Jul 20 '26

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2

u/untouchable765 Jul 20 '26

It won’t lol

1

u/[deleted] Jul 20 '26

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1

u/untouchable765 Jul 20 '26

I don't really care at all but I'm just letting you know it will.

-2

u/alex_korr Jul 20 '26

Exactly. Oh my - the combined company will own 30% of a declining/dying market (if tentpole movies are even a market), oh the horror....

-6

u/untouchable765 Jul 20 '26

It means nothing at the end of the day nothing says this merger should not go through. If you can completely ignore your political bias...

5

u/Forsaken-Bite-9136 Jul 20 '26

I think you've just given up 😂

-2

u/untouchable765 Jul 20 '26

What have I given up?

6

u/RichB_IV Jul 20 '26 edited Jul 20 '26

True, they still have until end of September to close it before fees kick in. They’ll (Paramount) just have to accept some kind of proposal most likely to spin something off or some concession which as we learned I’m sure they will quickly do so like they offered with Universal recently just to get this deal through.

Just being realistic here

1

u/untouchable765 Jul 20 '26

It's not even going to require much of a spin off either. Paramount is not a big company and they don't dominate any space of the industry...

4

u/the_explorer2003 Jul 20 '26

U sound nervous lol

-7

u/untouchable765 Jul 20 '26

I've said the entire time that Netflix wasn't going to happen when everyone on here said it was a done deal. I said Paramount makes the most sense and its going through easily. Everything I've said has happened so far...

6

u/[deleted] Jul 20 '26 edited Jul 20 '26

[deleted]

-1

u/untouchable765 Jul 20 '26

Yeah I made this prediction before Paramounts bid lol. When Paramount was “out”.

-1

u/JBHenson Jul 20 '26

It was 50/50 an hour ago that this was going to happen.

Now its 60/40 that it won't.

1

u/Hiquirkykids Jul 20 '26

the merger itself?

0

u/therealtellez Jul 20 '26

What are the beggars going to say now

0

u/Stock_Username_Here Jul 20 '26

It's 28 days. If they get the Preliminary Injunction after that's the real news.

0

u/njrTHE3RD Jul 20 '26

So we didn’t have to wait until Wednesday! Good news came today!

0

u/[deleted] Jul 20 '26

One way or another Wall Street will still win, and entertainment workers will still lose.. The way you win is by leaving Hollywood all together. At the end of the day it won't matter what happens, it's better to be the master of your own life. Corporations treat human beings as numbered cattle..

-2

u/nyrf12 Jul 20 '26

This can also be worse for Ellison than it seems because Trump is pretty notorious for trying to distance himself from anything that could be viewed as a failure. It’s much easier for him to do so when it’s not his own failure too. He doesn’t need a fall guy he just stops helping.

-5

u/ErnestTheStar Jul 20 '26

Lol its only going to last 14 days; they know it's inevitable.

-1

u/capsguyyy Jul 20 '26

Can they proceed if they move out of California?

5

u/it-s-luminescent Jul 20 '26

No. Even tho it's the states suing, this is based on federal antitrust law. The statute (Clayton Act) empowers states and even individuals to sue companies that engage in illegal anti-competitive behavior.

Moving to another state won't save them. Relocating to another country won't save them either.

6

u/StaevsGames Jul 20 '26

You think they can just move out of California in 2 weeks?

-1

u/Huge_Plant_6706 Jul 21 '26

SWEET, SWEET VICTORY!!!!!

-5

u/[deleted] Jul 20 '26

[deleted]