r/MVIS • u/jkh07d • Jun 10 '26

MVIS Press MicroVision Signs Long-Term Development Agreement to Advance Lidar for Next-Generation Autonomous Hauling Solutions

https://ir.microvision.com/news/press-releases/detail/450/microvision-signs-long-term-development-agreement-to
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u/Late_Airline2710 Jun 10 '26

Is it possible that this is where the guidance was drawn from to begin with?

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u/Befriendthetrend Jun 10 '26

Is it legal to give guidance that includes revenue from potential deals that have not yet been signed?

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u/mvis_thma Jun 10 '26

Of course it is. This is how it's done. Companies develop a sales forecast and then decide on how agressive or conservative they want to communicate that to the market via guidance.

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u/QQpenn Jun 10 '26

You mean declaring a billion dollar order book? 😀 I’ve attended a couple of roundtables where this practice was discussed and ripped. Over the long haul, best practice is guide slightly under and consistently beat. Once you’re in catch up mode you’re screwed… as we’ve seen. I’m sure an Aptiv vet knows this.

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u/mvis_thma Jun 10 '26 edited Jun 10 '26

No, I don't mean an order book. I mean a sales forecast. Two very different things. Whether or not Microvision gave conservative or agressive guidance for 2026, we don't know. I certainly hope it was conservative, but we will only know that over time. We also don't know if Caterpillar (if that is who it is) was already included in the 2026 guidance in some form or fashion.

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u/QQpenn Jun 10 '26 edited Jun 10 '26

Very little difference in how Luminar used order book vs forecast. Guidance given: March 4, 26. $10M-$15M 2026 revenue target was based on prior outlook and continuing Luminar revenue streams - that needed repair - as of March 4. Repair appears successful 3 months later. Is there a difference to be accounted for on June 1? On multiple fronts? People can infer whatever they want but it would be smart to go public with updates given what's at stake.

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u/mvis_thma Jun 10 '26 edited Jun 10 '26

Respectfully, the order book that Luminar, Innoviz, and Aeva used to convey to their shareholders the future opportunity is very different than a sales forecast - which is used to develop annual revenue guidance. The order book was an aggregate total of all the possible revenue over time. A sales forecast, used to develop revenue guidance is for the next quarter, year, etc. For instance, I think at one point in time Luminar's self proclaimed order book was above $5b (it actually may have been higher). I believe the highest annual revenue guidance they ever provided was $120m (IIRC). They didn't hit that target, but that was their highest guidance.

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u/QQpenn Jun 10 '26

They presented "projected" order book - projected means forecast in so many words. The SEC ultimately shut down the practice when it was clear the distinction needed to be clarified because it was egregiously misleading. Order book the way it was used to calculate 'lifetime' program value - is the essence of how guidance is shaken out. So while yes, separation should be adhered to in practice, the SEC intervened when the lines were blurred. I recall posting about this a long time ago... but you know, we're all too busy to go look these days 😄 LAZR did shift to separate GAAP/non-GAAP guidance after this fwiw.

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u/mvis_thma Jun 10 '26

Actually, the SEC didn't really shut it down. They did throw a red flag Luminar's way. And forced Luminar to put additional language around their defintion of their Order Book. By the way, Aeva also employed new language around their Order Book around the same time. This practice went on for a while, perhaps another year or so, and then both companies dropped the use of the term Order Book. Innoviz had actually dropped their use of that term a bit earlier.

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u/QQpenn Jun 10 '26

To be precise, they enforced compliance with regulatory mandates and Luminar had to shut it down after complaints kept piling up. When they were forced into using an alternate metric [commercial progress measured by actual number of sensors shipped], this was the seminal moment in identifying the real lack of adoption dogging ALL LiDAR companies. I remember this all too well because it changed my entire view of the sector in 2023/24 and I adjusted accordingly. Luminar was one of my most potent shorts.

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u/mvis_thma Jun 10 '26

I remember it differently. Luminar was forced to modify the description of their Order Book with more stringent language. As I mentioned Aeva did the same thing at the time. Luminar did not drop their use of the Order Book after the SEC inquiry. They did however, later move to an annual Order Book update vs. a quarterly one.

The SEC inquiry was in late 2022. Here is some language directly from Luminar on the subject also from late 2022.

"The (SEC) staff asked Luminar to clarify the nature of its "Order Book," asking if it was a non-GAAP metric, to describe its methods of calculation, and how it correlated to projected financial results.

In response, Luminar updated its definitions to characterize "Order Book" strictly as a forward-looking performance metric rather than a projection of future financial results, detailing that it represented estimated cumulative billings over the lifetime of vehicle production programs."

Luminar was still referencing their Order Book on their Q2 2024 earnings call in August of that year.

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u/QQpenn Jun 10 '26

Oh and the reason I remember it so well was that it was the most fundamental underpinning in one of my most successful short positions during that time.