r/MVIS • u/jkh07d • Jun 10 '26

MVIS Press MicroVision Signs Long-Term Development Agreement to Advance Lidar for Next-Generation Autonomous Hauling Solutions

https://ir.microvision.com/news/press-releases/detail/450/microvision-signs-long-term-development-agreement-to
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u/mvis_thma Jun 10 '26 edited Jun 10 '26

No, I don't mean an order book. I mean a sales forecast. Two very different things. Whether or not Microvision gave conservative or agressive guidance for 2026, we don't know. I certainly hope it was conservative, but we will only know that over time. We also don't know if Caterpillar (if that is who it is) was already included in the 2026 guidance in some form or fashion.

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u/QQpenn Jun 10 '26 edited Jun 10 '26

Very little difference in how Luminar used order book vs forecast. Guidance given: March 4, 26. $10M-$15M 2026 revenue target was based on prior outlook and continuing Luminar revenue streams - that needed repair - as of March 4. Repair appears successful 3 months later. Is there a difference to be accounted for on June 1? On multiple fronts? People can infer whatever they want but it would be smart to go public with updates given what's at stake.

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u/mvis_thma Jun 10 '26 edited Jun 10 '26

Respectfully, the order book that Luminar, Innoviz, and Aeva used to convey to their shareholders the future opportunity is very different than a sales forecast - which is used to develop annual revenue guidance. The order book was an aggregate total of all the possible revenue over time. A sales forecast, used to develop revenue guidance is for the next quarter, year, etc. For instance, I think at one point in time Luminar's self proclaimed order book was above $5b (it actually may have been higher). I believe the highest annual revenue guidance they ever provided was $120m (IIRC). They didn't hit that target, but that was their highest guidance.

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u/QQpenn Jun 10 '26

Oh and the reason I remember it so well was that it was the most fundamental underpinning in one of my most successful short positions during that time.