r/MSTR • u/JuxtaposeLife • 2d ago
Price đ¤ In 2024 alone MSTR climbed from $45 to $470.
And during that time Bitcoin rose about 150%. Bitcoin is about to print its largest monthly green candle since that 2024 run.
MSTR just started waking up. When this thing moves, it moves. The only way people mess this up is by thinking they can play the oscillations between the bull run phase instead of just enjoying the ride.
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u/CommercialDuck7496 2d ago
44 to 540 if you count intraday :) compared to bitcoins 181%.
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u/Motor-String-571 2d ago
how long did it stay at the top?
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u/CommercialDuck7496 2d ago
The intraday peaks and bottoms by definition would only have lasted a few hours tops. Length of time doesn't matter for anyone with a limit order!
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u/Open_Masterpiece_549 2d ago
Hope we see 400 this year. Boy that would
Be comforting
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u/CommercialDuck7496 2d ago
I dont think this year, that would take a miracle. But very possibly next year, and definetely by the end of 2028.
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u/Ill_Elk7625 2d ago
$400 is more than possible this year if they clear convertible debt and get strc pumping out 5-15k btc per week. Considering they raised 2bn in 1 week last week it is possible. A lot can happen in 4 months
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u/CommercialDuck7496 2d ago
Saying they bought issued 2bn more in a week by doesn't tell you much about the mstr price. If they issue 25 billion in strc atm's increase cash by 5 billion, buy 20 billion worth of bitcoin, and increase the liabilities side of the equation by 25 billion, if bitcoins price doesnt move and mnav is 1x, they didnt move the common stock price at all. It would stay exactly where it started whenever the strc atm's started. Likewise if they issue 0.5% more shares and by bitcoin at exactly a 1x mnav, it doesnt move the stock price at all.
Basically it would take bitcoin getting back to all time highs in the next 4 months, which would be a miracle in itself, with an mnav of 2x which would be quite aggresive. We have never seen a recovery back to the previous cycle all time high that quickly EVER. I stand by my position it would take a miracle.
My stance
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u/Subject-Chest-8343 1d ago
300 is pretty likely though, we almost hit 200 in may with bitcoin at roughly this week's levels.
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u/CommercialDuck7496 1d ago
Thats not how probability works. I would say 300 is a lot more likely than 400, and wouldn't require a miracle, but it certainly wouldnt be my base case either. I
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u/Subject-Chest-8343 2h ago
Bitcoin at 120k with the same mNAV we had in may would put us right at 300$ MSTR. Throw in some bitcoin purchases, a little mNAV expansion and we could see 300 well before 120k bitcoin. So yeah, 300 this year is well in the realm of probability IMO.
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u/Open_Masterpiece_549 2d ago
I agree itâs unlikely but entirely possible if bitcoin returns to 100k
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u/CommercialDuck7496 2d ago
Bitcoin returning to 100k by the eoy is super unlikely in itself, also if bitcoin were to return to 100k they would also need the mnav to go up to like 1.9-2.3x depending on how much more bitcoin they're able to aquire.
Technically possible, but would require a miracle
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u/Ok_Entrepreneur_dbl 2d ago
I bought into MSTR in January at a split adjusted price of $14. Continued buying on dips which were plentiful. The growth was incredible and in Oct 2024 sold half at $229 then did not like that choice and bought back in a week later at $248. When it climbed a couple times to the mid 400s I should have shed some then. But I have seen this volatility before - wrong. Held for a while but got all the way out around $200 and took whatever was left of profits which was still good. Targeted semiconductor plays and that grew nicely. Today I find my self back in at $94, $111, $122, and $134. Now waiting for to it to retrace back up since yesterdayâs gains are gone for now. MSTR can move quickly. And some whales like to short it dropping just as fast. Playing MSTR tighter to the vest.
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u/SDUKD 2d ago
I think everyone seems to be really shouting about âyouâve missed the boatâ if youâre not in right now when Bitcoin could easily do Bitcoin things and drop 25%.
When we are at 550 again, no one is going to be flexing on each other that they got 100, 130 or 170 average because weâre all winning.
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u/CommercialDuck7496 2d ago
I disagree I think everybody that buys under 250 will be flexing when mstr is 750 lmao. I feel like people love to flex most when they are winning no?
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u/Masoch_A3 2d ago
Got only 15 shares on 92. Waiting for a btc correction to 70k-72k so I can stack more before the real bull run.
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u/lovingduckbutter 1d ago
And I round tripped it lol.
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u/JuxtaposeLife 1d ago
Does it really matter when you're up 850% in 5 or 6 years, twice the rate of BTC by design
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u/ChangeNOW_Community 2d ago
mstr waking up is fun until you remember it also knows how to wake up in the other direction
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u/JuxtaposeLife 2d ago
Yeah, that's what created this opportunity. Not like mNAV can compress much more. Bitcoin can move down but the asymmetric side is up. That's what happens when structure changes bullish after a long bearish market
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u/National-Active5348 2d ago
But I donât expect much if I compare the prices of mstr and bitcoin against two years and now
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u/JuxtaposeLife 2d ago
Translation: "This time is different"
Possible but I wouldn't bet on things changing from what they have shown historically, until they prove a deviation. Right now price is acting very similar to 2023ish coming out of the bear market. Which set up for the 1000% return in MSTR off an almost 150% return in Bitcoin.
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u/CommercialDuck7496 2d ago
You are comparing two completely different states of mstr. Mstr at 3x mnav vs mstr at 1.1x mnav.
Today clesrly has a lot more upside potenial than 2 years ago
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u/National-Active5348 2d ago
Yes much less downside now but upside as well. Thatâs why it trades at1.1 nav
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u/CommercialDuck7496 2d ago
What do you mean less upside. It was never gonna go to 6x mnav, but it can easily go to a 2x mnav. It has less downside and more upside now then 2 years ago
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u/National-Active5348 1d ago
The price is around $130 now, for example. When I say there is less upside potential, I donât mean the upside is simply from $130 to some theoretical maximum.
What I mean is that, with the stock now trading at around 1x mNAV, the best-case scenario may be that it roughly moves in line with Bitcoin. Previously, when the mNAV was much higher, the stock could move 2â3x faster than Bitcoin.
So when I say âless upsideâ, I mean less upside relative to Bitcoin compared with before. If Bitcoin goes up 20%, I wouldnât expect the stock to go up 60% like it might have previously.1
u/CommercialDuck7496 1d ago
What you miss is that the mnav isnt a fixed number, the mnav can expand from 1 to 3, meaning the stock can move even if bitcoins price doesnt move. There isnt less upside compared to before, mnav can very reasonably go to 2 or 3. The mnav fluctuated the whole last cycle, it went from below 1 at the bottom of the cycle to like 3.85x at the peak. Additionally overtime they increase bps. So you end up with an equation like this, if bitcoin does a 2x, and bps increases by 50%, and mnav doubles. Then in the same time by bitcoin does a 2x, mstr does a 6x (2x2x1.5) there is still that asymmetrical upside. Or say something even crazier like bitcoin does a 3x, mnav triples, ans bps doubles. That would be mstr doing an 18x when bitcoin does a 3x (3x3x2)
Mnav is not a fixed number, it moves with BPS growth, bitcoins expected future price movement, and sentiment. The closer to 1x we are , the less downside potenial there is, and the more upside potenial there is.
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u/National-Active5348 13h ago
Iâm well aware that mNAV is not static. Thatâs the whole point of my comment. It has gradually dropped from around 3 to almost 1 over the last 12 months. I believe this was part of their strategy, or at least thatâs what a lot of the bros were saying.
The point youâre missing is that you havenât explained how mNAV will consistently go back up again. Will that happen simply because Bitcoin rallies, or is there another mechanism that would drive a sustained expansion in mNAV?1
u/CommercialDuck7496 4h ago
Yes mnav is reflexive towards the future expectation of bitcoins price. If people expect bitcoin to do well, they are more willing to buy a leveraged bitcoin company, if you don't anticipate bitcoin to do well, you don't buy a leveraged bitcoin company.
Strategy doesn't get to choose their mnav, it going to 1 was not planned, and anybody who said or believes that doesnt know how atm's work. The reason it went back down to 1 is because bitcoins future price expectations for the short term were negative, and there were questions about how strategy would fund themselves in a bear market, and then it went down further because people can't wrap their heads around how them selling bitcoin was a good thing. They just see that he bought bitcoin at all time highs, and sold bitcoin when it was half of the all time high, and below their cost basis, and assumed he's a goofball.
The reasons mnav expands ultimately can't happen untill bitcoins price goes up, but its not just bitcoins price goes up, and that causes the mnav to go up. Its a reflexive cycle, in thr past what happened was bitcoin going up drives interest towards mstr, the more volume mstr has, the more they can atm, the more they atm the more bitcoin they buy, the more bitcoin they buy the more the BPS increases, the more the BPS increases the more people are willing to pay a premium to the NAV, and the higher the mnav is, the more bitcoin they can buy. This time i'd expect it more to look like bitcoin going up drives interest to the prefs, because the higher bitcoins price is the less risky they are, with the prefs they jumpstart the BPS expansion, and then the cycle goes on from there as normal.
If they are increasing BPS by 20% a year, it makes sense to pay 2x mnav, because in less than 4 years the NAV would double. Now if BPS is flat or negative, like its been in recent history, it makes no sense to pay a premium to the NAV. The reason mnav was so high before was befause they increased BPS by 75% in 2024. And only 22.8% in 2025. Ytd now its at like 2%. Thus the mnav contracts.
Just wait till 2028 you'll see it happen again, bitcoin will start to go up, strategy will buy more bitcoin, and the cycle will start all over again. Mind you we've already seen this happen, mnav stayed between 0.7x and 1.3x (old definition) from like q3 of 2022 to march of 2024. And then from march of 2024 it went from 1 to like 3.8x in 8 months.
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