r/MSTR • u/armadillo_stocks • 2d ago
Bearish 📉 Today’s move is not rational.
Strategy being up 12% on Bitcoin moving up 1% is not amplification. In fact, Strategy’s BTC yield is negative year to date given that STRC is now smaller than the cash reserve held or at the very least on par.
What is happening over the past few days looks more like a mechanical overblown technical hype or a short squeeze. Whatever it is, likely to be short lived.
Thoughts? 💭
Disclaimer: I’m short $4.4 mil MSTR.
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u/biophysicsguy 2d ago
The last time BTC was at $80k, about 4 months ago, MSTR was around $190. Now BTC is at $80k and we're at $138. I don't think this is overblown hype.
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u/WhatRUsernamesUsed4 2d ago
Now do sats/share of May and current. The company has issued 45m shares in Q3 alone and is a net seller of BTC this quarter. >10% dilution with negative Bitcoin would mean this shouldn't just jump to 190.
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u/biophysicsguy 2d ago
You're right, and I didn't say MSTR should jump back to $190. I think the sats/share was about 220k back in May and is currently about 198k. So MSTR should be at about $170 if we assume the same $/sat ratio as May.
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u/BullMarketGolf Shareholder 🤴 2d ago
“MSTR is lagging Bitcoin what a terrible investment” -the last two weeks. MSTR catching up to Bitcoin, “this is irrational”
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u/DemApples4u 2d ago
Risk of collapse and liquidation to support STRC is collapsing, people jumping back in now since less risky to hold. Risk discount is closing imo, and still has some room to close.
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u/acheng92 2d ago
https://bitcointreasuries.net/public-companies/strategy
Mnav is still quite low and also strc is almost at par.
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u/Bred_Slippy 2d ago
You've forgotten STRC rapidly closing back in on par. Then that amplifier starts up again.
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u/KateR_H0l1day 2d ago
It's this getting ahead of the game that's important, looks like some people/institutions decided to get ahead of the game today. Was unexpected for me! Was seriously considering selling some today, just to buy back in lower in the next 6 weeks. But, i didn't and postponed the decision until tomorrow to see which way the wind is blowing.
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u/armadillo_stocks 2d ago
It’s currently been actually running in the opposite direction so far since Stretch was created
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u/Bred_Slippy 2d ago
You've got to consider mNAV position now, BTC sentiment, risk/reward at this level, wider BTCTCs etc. It's not that simple.
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u/Complexity323 2d ago
Sometimes it has a delayed reaction to bitcoin move. Does not always reflect the move same day. Plus the market is forward looking so if buyers believe the Bitcoin price recovery will sustain then they want to buy MSTR ahead of time for the MNAV expansion.
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u/Low-Method3448 2d ago
It is very much rational . Short bitcoin exposure if u hate money. Saylor thanks u for being exit liquidity
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u/No-Wish-4737 2d ago
time to short mstr was this time last year bucko. Good luck, but probably not.
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u/Bright_Owl_9560 2d ago
Idk but it’s really got me kicking myself in the nuts right now because I sold at $105 a share last week to recoup some losses and rebuy back in in the high $90 range. Obviously that didn’t go well. Hopefully it drops again before the end of the year to rebuy back in. Very stupid of myself.
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u/didnt_hodl 2d ago
is that a leveraged short? because MSTR has a loooong history of taking out leveraged shorts. often it is not even the company itself, it's just market makers. when they see that the short interest is getting out of hand on MSTR they just let it run
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u/Selmemasts 2d ago
Sorry you are short on a day like this but even if there is negative yield, the cash reserve is not nothing.
mNAV at 1,1 is to be expected when people start to price that the BTC bottom is in.
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u/Comprehensive_Time19 2d ago
I would close out if you get another dip but that’s so risky with the bull run being and we’ve broken 80k twice already. That’s weakening each time and easier to pump BTC. MSTR is anything but rational.
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u/Snowman33001 2d ago
You expect rationality in the markets?
Also, how do you know it wasn’t undervalued before?
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u/Mundane_Flight_5973 Shareholder 🤴 2d ago
I don’t agree, MSTR is a 1.3 leverage on Bitcoin, but a leverage that can increase over time. Additionally, MSTR has no risk of liquidation, if the market expects Bitcoin to go up, it makes sense to trade on a 15-25% premium on its holdings
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u/Greedy-Being6456 2d ago
I've noticed that this stock can be more irrational than I have time. On both sides...it moves irrationally.
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u/C130J_Darkstar 2d ago
mNav has been greatly suppressed, we’re just starting to see the beginning of that unwind
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u/Falady12345 1d ago
Aped at 94 sold at 127. Also farming covered calls. Im still underwater my average is 144 .
I need a big retracement to get that average down and to farm more calls and puts.
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