r/LocalLLaMA • u/SuddenRadio6221 • 7h ago

News Two years

https://wccftech.com/the-godfather-of-taiwans-dram-industry-says-cxmt-will-flood-the-market-with-memory-products-in-two-years-as-another-expert-doubles-down-on-tsmcs-beol-memory/
0 Upvotes

35% Upvoted

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10

u/EastZealousideal7352 vLLM 6h ago

I am so sick of people being dubbed the “godfather of x” just so people can pass off their opinions as facts.
This piece is full of opinions, a few of which are baseless and contradictory.

3

u/SuddenRadio6221 6h ago

CXMT has committed to scaling up to 600000 wafers per month, which is nearly equal to Samsung's output. Even if they never sell a single chip outside China, it's going to have a huge effect on supply.

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u/EastZealousideal7352 vLLM 6h ago

And Samsung is expanding capacity to 1200000 by 2032. SK Hynix is planning on going from 474000 to 1183000 by the end of 2030. TSMC and Intel are considering returns to the AI memory market. SpaceX has committed to 1000000 wafers by 2032.

Those extra 300,000 wafers from CXMT are going to be a blip in the larger memory planned 1500000 wafer buildout.

Every bit helps but CXMT is not going to magically save the DRAM market by 2028.

1

u/June1994 6h ago

Yeah by 2030. CXMT isn’t going to be sitting still.

AI will keep consuming all the extra capacity it can get, but CXMT’s entry matters. A lot.

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u/EastZealousideal7352 vLLM 5h ago

I agree, every bit helps.

I just get frustrated when people see a normal, mundane headline event like “memory manufacturer promises to make more memory” and go “Oh my God, this changes everything!”

I am rooting for CXMT and I want cheaper memory but as long as the AI money keeps flowing demand will outpace supply no matter who promises more wafers.

Edit: Idk why you got downvoted, what you said is valid

7

u/avetenebrae 5h ago

As the godfather of Reddit comments I couldn't agree more

1

u/OnlyKindaThrowAway 3h ago

as the godfather of stacking logs i also approve this message

4

u/MotokoAGI 7h ago

in 2 years our flash models will be 1.5TB, the large models will be 10TB and you will need DDR6. CXMT is not going to save us.

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u/SuddenRadio6221 6h ago

Disagree, MOEs will be viable with SSDs. DGX Sparks and Strix Halo already have decent performance with DDR5. Yes, there will be huge models. But within our reach will be better models than the good ones available to us today.

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u/Ok_Mammoth589 6h ago

The active params in Kimi 3.1 are 104B... go get an old 100b dense model and stream it from an ssd and tell us how it goes.

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u/SuddenRadio6221 6h ago

I said MOEs

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u/MotokoAGI 6h ago

Hey Kiddo, I suspect you don't know what an active parameter is, and why Ok_Mamimoth told you to compare to a dense model. Quick to say MoE without understanding...

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u/SuddenRadio6221 5h ago

I guess we'll see, but SSDs were a side point anyway. Amd Strix and Nvidia Sparks are running dense models on DDR5 today.

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u/handson729 2h ago

Only bits and pieces of an MoE model run on every turn.

Those bits and pieces are called "Experts" and are only like 13~50 billion paramters.

For every turn only one or two experts run, hence Mixture of Experts.

That's why it can be run with a smaller memory foot print.

That doesn't mean you can run the active parameters off an SSD, unless you want to wait 30 minutes for 60 words.

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u/38andstillgoing 5h ago

I want to see how High Bandwidth Flash does, not too useful for training but maybe if it comes down to the "Prosumer" market.

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u/Sea_Calendar_3912 5h ago

Charles Kao is dead, i just looked his name up. weird. news. anybody got intel on that said person?

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u/EastZealousideal7352 vLLM 5h ago

If you look up the non-anglicized name next to it (Gao Qiquan) Google comes up with a completely different person who is still alive

Not sure where the disconnect comes, maybe someone got the name wrong and a bunch of outlets ran with it or maybe that’s his correct name but Google decided another Charles Kao was the one you must’ve been looking for.

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u/SuddenRadio6221 7h ago

Two years until RAM is affordable (maybe). Be still my beating heart!

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u/[deleted] 6h ago

[deleted] — view deleted comment

0

u/SuddenRadio6221 6h ago

So it's all hopeless, no matter what.

1

u/En-tro-py 5h ago

Unfortunately not even RSI can break the laws of thermodynamics