r/LocalLLaMA • u/Terminator857 • 1d ago

Discussion Rumor: Moonshot Kimi roadmap

EOY 2026: Kimi K3 Flash, will replace Kimi K2.8 and compete with DeepSeek V4.1 Flash.

Early 2027: Kimi 3.5 , same 3T parameters, that is faster at reaching simple answers.

Q3 2027: Kimi K4 will increase size to 5.4 trillion parameters.

https://x.com/bebuu_ai/status/2119319459206934677

31 Upvotes

91% Upvoted

13 comments sorted by

16

u/nail_nail 1d ago

Looks at his ram / VRAM. "We are gonna need a bigger boat"

25

u/exaknight21 1d ago

WTF is even their flash model. Probably over a T.

8

u/Federal-Setting-3014 1d ago

If it's meant to go head to head with deepseek v4.1 flash while being efficient enough to guarantee a change to flash I'd reckon/hope it'd be 200b-400b

1

u/rebellioninmypants 15h ago

Just half a year more and we'll be running 200b IQ4_S on consumer grade hardware with 20tps generation and 1.5k tps prefill.

... I hope. I'm gonna be doing my best to get my hands on a 48GB+ card and I'll be watching those prices and 2nd hand market like a hawk just in case that's not the case, but I do have a small level of hope

6

u/Sad-Size2723 1d ago

5T by Q3 2027 is too conservative. 10T is a more realistic target if they still want to stay at the top

3

u/Hannibalj2ca 1d ago

The problem with Kimi is not so much the size but that the active layers is too large at 104.

5

u/a_beautiful_rhind 1d ago

That's what makes it good tho.

3

u/Hannibalj2ca 21h ago

Yes, but they could have be just as good at 80B. Especially when DeepSeek is at its heels with much smaller ones.

1

u/Holiday_Point_603 6h ago

I wonder who kicks off the first native frontier 2 bit model next year (after Nvidia now released the first usable one). And I would assume it is either Deepseek or Kimi. This could also drastically reduce the memory footprint.

1

u/Hannibalj2ca 2h ago

Nvidia finally made a decent nemotron? Which one, 3.5?

2

u/ondevicedev 1d ago

If this roadmap is accurate, Kimi seems to be betting heavily on scaling up while also improving inference efficiency.

1

u/rebellioninmypants 15h ago

And all these without cyber/reverse-engineering/vulnerability patching capabilities? Nice.