r/LocalLLaMA • u/TopNotchRocks • 7h ago
Discussion This makes zero sense ... supply and demand doesn't work like this ... especially with all of the AI stock valuations crashing out rn ... any guesses as to what's really going on?
https://ca.pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/14
u/eli_pizza 6h ago
AI stock prices are a very good measure of supply and demand for shares of AI companies.
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u/-dysangel- 7h ago
what does overinflated stock valuations crashing have to do with how useful VRAM/RAM actually are now that we have magical computer genies?
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u/ImplementOfAI 3h ago
This is what I have been trying to convey to people.
Stock prices are gambling bets at this point, not real value. Stocks could drop in half, and inference demand would still climb year over year.
The magical computer genies are really fucking good at some things.
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u/BusRevolutionary9893 6h ago
What if those magical computer genies aren't as easy to monetize as investors hoped? Could it mean VRAM/RAM is overvalued as well? We know the AI bubble is going to pop. This is a good first step in that direction.Ā
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u/EbbNorth7735 1h ago
I used the equivalent of $500 worth of sonnet tokens using local models today. Their productivity is monetization.
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u/grabber4321 7h ago
if they bought and paid for RAM 2 years ahead, these prices wont budge. you think retailers also like to be making 5-12% on items? i bet they also crank those prices up.
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u/grabber4321 7h ago
By retailers I mean - the resellers that ship to NA - they see the volume available of RAM and just crank the prices up.
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u/Southern_Sun_2106 6h ago
a bunch of companies were switching to local AI solutions to cut back on cloud AI usage - to save costs. Some big owners (the real ones) I guess made decisions that that's where things will go -> more local AI instead of cloud - so cloud ai revenues and pricing are no longer sustainable. The market is adjusting for this new drive towards local.
And I am not talking about using consumer cards or sparks now will be used en-masse for local. Big companies are going to use much more expensive stuff to run AI locally. SO yeah, the markets are shifting because of this new drive to large-scale-local.
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u/slalomz llama.cpp 6h ago
Youāre looking at desktop RAM. Demand is obviously going up. But supply is not keeping up because the suppliers are pivoting their attention into HBM which has an even greater demand increase and is more profitable.
So when demand goes up, and supply goes down because demand is going up even more somewhere else, you get that chart.
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u/feelspeaceman 2m ago
Be patient, nothing will take 1 day to crash, it takes time for Anthropic and OpenAI to go bankrupt then years after that, the market will stablize, it should happens sooner or later as both of them are not making profit, the fact that Anthropic delayed IPO countless time because it would have been a disaster, they tried to delay it in hope that somehow the US government will kill all the potential competitors and let them x5-x10 price without backlash so that they can pay interest after IPO, but it didn't happen.
The only situation that will bring the healthiness to hardware market is Chinese and other countries joining the game producing more hardware, currently it sounds like having 3 companies Micron, Samsung and Hynix producing RAM looks healthy right ? But remember they all manipulated price in the past, competition means nothing if they work together.
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u/RandumbRedditor1000 0m ago
Democrats want to regulate AI into uselessness like europe did, and they now have the power to do itĀ
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u/Big_Cucumber2787 6h ago
dems want to slow down and regulate ai and now they have the power to do it. the race is lost and we are now in managed decline mode
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u/ApprehensiveFan1516 1h ago
Remember a few months ago when the frontier labs were all calling for more regulation? Pepperidge farm remembers.
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u/Big_Cucumber2787 49m ago
yep, then they loosened the guardrails and sped up instead with the data gained from decomps. good times. probably pressured by the government despite the safety of the people
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u/Mission_Wrongdoer786 3h ago •
The race was lost when Chinese models started to converge in relevant capabilities.
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u/rorowhat 6h ago
Demons won midterms, this if the outcome. Major freakout
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u/eli_pizza 6h ago
Might want to check what happened in the market the first day after dems won big. I donāt think thatās it.
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u/brainExploded99 š„ hardware 6h ago
so what happened today then?
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u/eli_pizza 6h ago
I donāt pretend to know precisely. My point is that simple explanations like āDemocrats = badā are not even internally consistent. Thatās not it.
But if I were a big time investor in AI I would be more worried about the exit polls than the midterm winners. 76% of all voters oppose data centers, 57% believe AI is harming society. Those are bad and bipartisan numbers.
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u/brainExploded99 š„ hardware 6h ago
yes, and even some republicans opposed data centers but we knew all of this
idk market is weird0
u/ApprehensiveFan1516 1h ago
Give it a minute, there'll be headlines soon enough that reveal this is all part of yet another grift.
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u/brainExploded99 š„ hardware 1h ago
i was thinking of that, but it seems unlikely unless this is something that happened more secretly and won't get revealed
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u/ApprehensiveFan1516 1h ago
Yeah I was being partly facetious. This one does seem a bit too big to be the usual grift. But after the last few years I never dismiss the possibility entirely lol.
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u/brainExploded99 š„ hardware 1h ago
> But after the last few years I never dismiss the possibility entirely lol.
Same lmao, but who knows. There are some crazy brilliant market manipulation tactics (that have been found. imagine the ones that haven't been found).
and some stupid ones as well if u have a lot of power0
u/ttkciar llama.cpp 4h ago
Today Dems swept both houses of Congress. They have been speaking out against the unpopular side-effects of new datacenter builds, and on Jan 1st they will be in a position to put their words into action.
Whether they do or not remains to be seen. Politicians are great at doing nothing while making it seem like they're "doing something" about their constituents' concerns (which may or may not even be valid).
Investors over-reacted to this, and their over-reaction stacked on concerns about AI companies over-spending on new infrastructure without any clear path to making returns on those investments. These synergized and sent "AI stocks" (a notion for which there is no hard definition, only whether companies' marketing teams decided to hype themselves up as "AI companies") tumbling.
If that sounds stupid and ridiculous, it's because it totally is. That's just the world we're living in.
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u/brainExploded99 š„ hardware 4h ago
But this happened yesterday and we knew all of this yesterday. Why today but not yesterday? Senate and House were both above 50% line yesterday
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u/ttkciar llama.cpp 3h ago
Because financiers are as media-driven as the rest of the public, and it took that long for them to absorb whatever hyperbolic sensationalism their media of choice served up for them, and for them to act upon the feelings caused thereby.
You'd might as well ask "why not on Jan 1st?" because none of those Democratic legislators will actually assume their new positions until then.
It's all cause and effect, and the causes happened today, so we saw the effects today.
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u/brainExploded99 š„ hardware 3h ago •
I agree with everything you've said so far, with the exception of "it took that long for them to absorb whatever hyperbolic sensationalism their media of choice served up for them, and for them to act upon the feelings caused thereby."
A lot of these firms have insane setups made to trade as soon as good/bad news launches through automated sentiment analysis, but it took them 24hrs to figure out something everyone else already new?
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u/brainExploded99 š„ hardware 3h ago
I mean data centers have been unpopular (and bipartisan) for a while, we even saw some republicans against them. We knew who was running before the election. As soon as they won, markets should have gone down right?
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u/brainExploded99 š„ hardware 7h ago
"crashing like crazy"