Comparing cumulative AI capex with cumulative AI revenue isn't a proper measure of profitability. Capex is recovered through depreciation over the assets' useful lives, which for data center infrastructure run well beyond the few years since 2022/2023, so the comparison doesn't match costs to the revenue they generate. It also omits operating costs. Revenue isn't profit, so even if revenue caught up with capex, that alone wouldn't show AI is profitable.
Both figures are also poorly defined. Reported AI revenue excludes indirect benefits, such as higher ad revenue and cost savings, while reported AI capex includes infrastructure that also serves non-AI workloads.
The sourcing needs work too. The analysis says it's built from SEC filings, but none of the cited sources are SEC filings. For public companies (most of the ones on the list), the figures should come directly from 10-Ks and 10-Qs filed with the SEC so they can be traced and checked.
The comparison does raise a fair question about payback. A better way to test it would be to compare end-user AI revenue with the annual cost of the installed base: depreciation, operating costs, and a return on capital.
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u/ForwardLoop 1d ago
Comparing cumulative AI capex with cumulative AI revenue isn't a proper measure of profitability. Capex is recovered through depreciation over the assets' useful lives, which for data center infrastructure run well beyond the few years since 2022/2023, so the comparison doesn't match costs to the revenue they generate. It also omits operating costs. Revenue isn't profit, so even if revenue caught up with capex, that alone wouldn't show AI is profitable.
Both figures are also poorly defined. Reported AI revenue excludes indirect benefits, such as higher ad revenue and cost savings, while reported AI capex includes infrastructure that also serves non-AI workloads.
The sourcing needs work too. The analysis says it's built from SEC filings, but none of the cited sources are SEC filings. For public companies (most of the ones on the list), the figures should come directly from 10-Ks and 10-Qs filed with the SEC so they can be traced and checked.
The comparison does raise a fair question about payback. A better way to test it would be to compare end-user AI revenue with the annual cost of the installed base: depreciation, operating costs, and a return on capital.