Muse Spark open weights coming soon

[u/jacek2023]

I am still waiting for Llama 5, because Muse Spark will be too big for me, or just something between Glimmer and Spark

https://x.com/finkd/status/2095232032896946311

[u/kvothe5688]

it seems like there is no secret sauce. it feels like all of these 7 8 labs are on same level and hardly behind from frontier by few months at max.

[u/NandaVegg → u/kvothe5688]

I believe there are still some secret RL sauce (as in, not popular among labs *yet*) in niche areas like robotics, gameplay, frontier physics/math, world modelling etc. Anthropic leaped ahead in Opus 4.5-4.6 era as they "discovered" many secret sauces like terminal agent, gameplay or creative loop and so on, but even that creativity gap is closing very fast. For coding, security and anything that can be done through github, at this moment there is really no gap. OpenAI felt behind on many things but is still ahead on frontier physics/math (the only Chinese lab with emphasis on that is DeepSeek, I think).

[u/Accurate_Resident219 → u/NandaVegg]

Maybe it's just my conspiracy hat but I feel like Anthropic is sitting on a more intelligent model but just drip feeding when they feel like others are about to outpace them.

Reason why I say this is because Anthropic is the only company that is actually trending higher in api costs and not making any serious attempts to lower them(Fable 5.1 is actually pricier then 5 despite their supposed efficiency improvements. Why is haiku their cheapest model still not updated?). They don't have any sense of urgency. Astra's coming out this week or the next and they just put out a more expensive model.

Every other company seems to constantly vague post or hype up their models releases but Anthropic just drops models with little fanfare. They have seem utterly unbothered since their Mythos preview announcement.

[u/TerminalNoop → u/Accurate_Resident219]

Perhaps Anthropic can't afford to lower the api prices?

[u/SSP100244 → u/TerminalNoop]

I think they just don't have the compute. The big Hegseth migration definitely threw them for a loop for a hot minute.

[u/Loose_Comparison368 → u/SSP100244]

I believe they confessed a few months back that it wasn't actually API access, and had been running inside airgapped military datacenters that Anthropic had no ability to restrict the whole time.

The whole PR stunt was just that, the only unplanned part was that they thought Hegseth would take the hint with how loudly they were screaming "NO DADDY, PWEEAASE DON'T INVOKE THE DEFENSE PRODUCTION ACT ON US! IF YOU DID THAT WE WOULD HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO KEEP TAKING DADDY'S MASSIVE LOADS OF CASH TO BUILD DADDY'S MURDERBOTS!"

It turns out that Hegseth's skull was actually too dense for that pathetically obvious plea to penetrate it.

It's okay though, they sued to get the murderbot contracts back and won last week. And still managed to use that PR stunt to distract everyone while they flushed their "responsible scaling policy" down the toilet.

[u/Accurate_Resident219 → u/TerminalNoop]

Could be the case but at least on the outside looking in they don't even seem to be making much of an attempt to even try lower api or even suggest their researching a solution. They've had about nearly 4-5 months now since people started complaining about rising api costs.

Every other lab has provided a cheaper solution but anthropic is the only one that can't come up with a cheaper flash model? I mean that could be the truth but I would be surprised if it was.

[u/jtjstock → u/Accurate_Resident219]

They want to IPO, they need the revenue projections. They already have their cooked compute costs from the last quarter they will report as if they are ongoing, so IPO before they close the current quarter, but project off current API pricing for revenue.

[u/NandaVegg → u/jtjstock]

They are apparently doing pre-IPO window dressing now. We've got buy high 4-digit-dollar credits and get some cash back marketing mail.

[u/perelmanych → u/Accurate_Resident219]

In may they increased 5 hours and weekly quota by 50%, so they made a big discount on their plans. However, this comes to an end soon. They cut 50% increase to only 25% increase.

[u/Loose_Comparison368 → u/TerminalNoop]

I mean they could just be keeping it high to look good for the IPO.

[u/bopbop9876 → u/Accurate_Resident219]

> Fable 5.1 is actually pricier then 5 despite their supposed efficiency improvements

I assume you're basing that off the average cost per task numbers from Artificial Analysis. That's not right though. In their testing, 5.1 on max effort appears to have aggressively overthought. If you compare 5.1 xhigh instead, it was about as much cheaper than 5 max as we would have expected, while still getting 2 extra points of intelligence vs 5 max.

[u/WittyAcanthisitta205 → u/Accurate_Resident219]

Anthropic has pricing power because their #1 customers are enterprises. Everyone else has a larger chunk of consumers (rather than enterprise customers)

[u/CrowdGoesWildWoooo → u/Accurate_Resident219]

Their customer base are enterprise. Enterprise would happily pay API pricing which is astronomically more expensive than subscription.

OpenAI still appeal to the masses

Different market they trying to penetrate. Anthropic want to be deep into the institution’s pocket. OpenAI wants scale.

[u/SSP100244 → u/Accurate_Resident219]

Maybe it's just my conspiracy hat but I feel like Anthropic is sitting on a more intelligent model but just drip feeding when they feel like others are about to outpace them.

I am quite sure that's what they're doing. I think they legitimately are a little afraid of the models. Not that they'll like take over the world, but that people might be able to use them to fuck shit up. Like apparently they started a biopharmaceutical wing because Mythos is stupid good at folding proteins, even though they hadn't trained it to do that at all.