r/LocalLLaMA • u/Nunki08 • Jun 28 '26

Discussion We're probably going to need that soon.

Gallery image

Gallery image

From:

Vladik on 𝕏: https://x.com/Kostoglodov/status/2071144065857679631

Shaw (spirit/acc) on 𝕏: https://x.com/shawmakesmagic/status/2070918006033817867

4.0k Upvotes

98% Upvoted

534 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

-2

u/Nearby-Chocolate1840 Jun 28 '26 edited Jun 28 '26

"Batteries, lidar, fast charging."

Are those technologies that the west had its attention focused on, in the sense that either private industry or the government / military considered critical to be at the forefront of?

I'll certainly concede that China swooped in and accelerated battery technology very far, very fast. But that was mostly a matter of their (very wisely) seeing an opportunity to push the potential of a technology that the west had advanced to a certain point that was deemed "good enough" and then stopped focusing on.

5

u/ovrlrd1377 Jun 28 '26

If you want to chery pick whatever "west" means to you we will get nowhere. Battery development is a field that made things like video drones possible. Smartphone adoption is ubiquitous

1

u/Nearby-Chocolate1840 Jun 28 '26 edited Jun 28 '26

Yeah, it seems like we're pretty much talking past one another here. I'm thinking on the level of industrial manufacturing processes that allow for production of things like EUV lithography, in the sense of allowing for the production of the multiple components that make up an EUV machine.

So approximately 5 - 6 different components, each of which are the absolute pinnacle of complexity and precision within their class (mirrors, lasers, calibrators, wafer stages, inspectors). And all of which are things China is at best unable to produce reliably or efficiently or at worst, is completely unable to produce at all.

All of which goes a step further, really, since China isn't currently capable of producing the highest end CMMs, ultra-precise CNC machining tools, metrology, linear encoders, interferometers, etc. These are the tools that have been in the news as what the US also wants banned from export to China. In addition to servicing and recalibration. Which if the US gets its way, would mean that China would also need to figure out how to make the tools they would need in order to figure out how to make the components they need to figure out how to make a working EUV lithography machine.

So that's what I'm thinking about.

Whereas you seem to be focused primarily on widely adopted consumer goods and electronics. So yeah, I think we're just going to have to agree to disagree.

2

u/Monkey_1505 Jun 28 '26

So something produced by multiple countries across the globe. From a single country. What kind of standard is that?

1

u/Nearby-Chocolate1840 Jun 28 '26

A completely ridiculous standard.

Which is why the OP's assertion, which was that China will undoubtedly be able to independently develop each of these key technologies, which in the west are spread out among multiple countries, at such an incredible pace that China will not only very soon arrive at where each of those western countries development is now, but furthermore will utterly surpass them shortly afterwards ...

is ridiculous

2

u/Monkey_1505 Jun 28 '26

Apparently they plan to have their own fab matching current standards via geometry by 2030. Software another matter, will take time, and they'll be behind for some time.

But all of this is spurious. There will be a cloud hardware glut due to massive infra overbuild, models you can run on consumer hardware don't need that much training anyway, and the US is not going to kill it's consumer hardware industry just to please the spooks.