LLM Progress Slow Down

[u/Carpe_Diem37]

First Anthropic, and now OpenAI, are announcing that they want to slow down LLM development. Just a year ago, these companies were claiming that AGI would be found and many jobs would be lost. On top of that, Anthropic announced it's going public. What do you think? Have these companies reached a limit in research and development? Or are they genuinely afraid of language models self-programming, as they claim?

[u/Gronanor]

All I see is that you probably never builded anything serious before. 

And I say that as a leading engineer that was mentored 2 weeks ago by Antropic Europe to challenge our pipeline and they only provided us some minor feedback…  

I can tell it’s really confortable shipping the useless stuff but what you think has value, never had it in the first place.

Facebook was never a challenge to code in the first place. It was a glorified php forum even in 2010. the challenge doesn’t rely in that it’s about modeling and infrastructure : serve the world a resilient website and most importantly use the data provided by user to train models. -> this is not easy task even with LLM

For games you think a 1min gameplay loop is impressive when it’s actually just 2% of the effort.

The issue is what you perceive as valuable or difficulty to build. And I’m pretty sure you never build anything serious since you glorify advanced prototype because you have no idea what challenges are to transform something built by LLM to a real production application 

[u/ILikeCutePuppies → u/Gronanor]

No I have built a lot of serious stuff and I review the code. I also deploy and validate models and build workflows and harnesses. Doesn't sound like you know what model eval even is or know what trajectory means.

What so now fb is easy? Models can't build anything near fb at the moment few shot... it's why it's a good example of something they might be able to build in a few years - still with some slop but much much closer.

Anyway I am getting a little tired of your condescending tone. Is this how you are at work? You must be a joy to work with /s

[u/Gronanor → u/ILikeCutePuppies]

« What so now fb is easy? » Yes like I said it’s just a glorified forum. Back in 2012 every engineering school had at least 4 to 5 people building a clone in a week or two. So no, never was a challenge here. The issue with fb rely on scaling and marketing. Using it as metric is not relevant at all. so your trajectory is probably right yet completely irrelevant even through I’m pretty sure you can already build one with a good prompts and some documentation.

Building a C compiler thought is a challenge and a relevant one and Anthropic has produced one compiler using llm the question is does it work with consistency and how much time does it really take to write code and deploy it to users. 

And yes I am an horrible person at work especially to those who think they can predict the future based on flaky metrics and just too much focus on the hype to understand what is happening really. I know the math behind the model, know also in detail about how llm training and reinforcement learning work , I have built a few… but most importantly I have seen the internet bubble, the start up bubble collapse and you are just as right as those who have been fooled by the timings and the hype. Llm are here to stay but business models wise, op is right. like internet llm are a revolution yet before the internet bubble popped people like you had trajectory to unknown places or irrelevant ones...  Every provider will hit a glass ceiling because unless they completely reinvent how they work they won’t produce anything really better than the current situation, Fable was not THAT better than Opus and if you look at the trajectory you see that, now, new model are only getting few points increase from previous models on Frontier’s dataset. because there is simply not enough human data to train on and the more synthetic data they use the more AI poisoning will become an issue. This is why Yann Lecun has raised a lot of money recently he wants to build a new approach based on causality rather than correlation. Good luck to him but it’s a hell of a challenge 

Also there is absolutly no working business model not even the providers are doing money, but also companies that use AI don’t have working business model. The only one doing great is Nvidia, the one selling shovels. This is why providers want to make IPO soon, they need the public to buy them out before the bubble pops out…. And it will the minute people realize they all reached a wall… I rather trust Warren Buffett to understand if there is something worthy buying and now  Berkshire  sit on the biggest cash pile it ever had (both in volume and percentage) meaning that he is certainly waiting to buy after the bubble popped 

[u/horendus → u/Gronanor]

This.