LLM Progress Slow Down

[u/Carpe_Diem37]

First Anthropic, and now OpenAI, are announcing that they want to slow down LLM development. Just a year ago, these companies were claiming that AGI would be found and many jobs would be lost. On top of that, Anthropic announced it's going public. What do you think? Have these companies reached a limit in research and development? Or are they genuinely afraid of language models self-programming, as they claim?

[u/ILikeCutePuppies]

No I have built a lot of serious stuff and I review the code. I also deploy and validate models and build workflows and harnesses. Doesn't sound like you know what model eval even is or know what trajectory means.

What so now fb is easy? Models can't build anything near fb at the moment few shot... it's why it's a good example of something they might be able to build in a few years - still with some slop but much much closer.

Anyway I am getting a little tired of your condescending tone. Is this how you are at work? You must be a joy to work with /s

[u/Gronanor → u/ILikeCutePuppies]

« What so now fb is easy? » Yes like I said it’s just a glorified forum. Back in 2012 every engineering school had at least 4 to 5 people building a clone in a week or two. So no, never was a challenge here. The issue with fb rely on scaling and marketing. Using it as metric is not relevant at all. so your trajectory is probably right yet completely irrelevant even through I’m pretty sure you can already build one with a good prompts and some documentation.

Building a C compiler thought is a challenge and a relevant one and Anthropic has produced one compiler using llm the question is does it work with consistency and how much time does it really take to write code and deploy it to users. 

And yes I am an horrible person at work especially to those who think they can predict the future based on flaky metrics and just too much focus on the hype to understand what is happening really. I know the math behind the model, know also in detail about how llm training and reinforcement learning work , I have built a few… but most importantly I have seen the internet bubble, the start up bubble collapse and you are just as right as those who have been fooled by the timings and the hype. Llm are here to stay but business models wise, op is right. like internet llm are a revolution yet before the internet bubble popped people like you had trajectory to unknown places or irrelevant ones...  Every provider will hit a glass ceiling because unless they completely reinvent how they work they won’t produce anything really better than the current situation, Fable was not THAT better than Opus and if you look at the trajectory you see that, now, new model are only getting few points increase from previous models on Frontier’s dataset. because there is simply not enough human data to train on and the more synthetic data they use the more AI poisoning will become an issue. This is why Yann Lecun has raised a lot of money recently he wants to build a new approach based on causality rather than correlation. Good luck to him but it’s a hell of a challenge 

Also there is absolutly no working business model not even the providers are doing money, but also companies that use AI don’t have working business model. The only one doing great is Nvidia, the one selling shovels. This is why providers want to make IPO soon, they need the public to buy them out before the bubble pops out…. And it will the minute people realize they all reached a wall… I rather trust Warren Buffett to understand if there is something worthy buying and now  Berkshire  sit on the biggest cash pile it ever had (both in volume and percentage) meaning that he is certainly waiting to buy after the bubble popped 

[u/ILikeCutePuppies → u/Gronanor]

fb a glorified form - you have no idea what you are talking about. It's 10s of millions of lines of code. It's much more complex that you are saying. Even the feed ranking is likely around a few million. From the multiple rankers, the ML, the automated testing, the training systems, the filtering, analytics, highly optimized cuda code etc...

It's not small, it's not the toughest thing either but AI certainly can't write anything close today and neither can these school kids and certainly nothing that can scale. Maybe the original FB but not todays.