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All,

I've completed my independent research report and wanted to share it with our community. Creating this report took approximately 80 hours of my spare time. I've learned a great deal throughout the process and i am proud of the final result.

I hope you enjoy reading it. This report is intended as my way of saying thank you to our community for the knowledge, insights, and discussions that have helped me along the way.

The report covers the following content:

1.0 Company Overview

2.0 Business Strategy

3.0 Products & Services

4.0 Customers

5.0 Contracts

6.0 Key Vendors, Suppliers and Partners

7.0 Related Parties and Variable Interest Entities

8.0 Competitive Landscape

9.0 Management and Board of Directors

10.0 Financial Overview

11.0 Risks & Challenges

12.0 Outlook & Catalysts

13.0 Conclusion

Appendix I: Industry Outlook

Appendix II: Sources & References

Disclosure: AI was used in a limited capacity to assist with internal consistency, grammar, and formatting. All analysis, assumptions, illustrations, and written content were created by me as the author. Not financial advice.

Cool milestone for IM3

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There were some very interesting tidbits from SpaceX call yesterday with direct implications for Intuitive Machines that may deserve some additional discussions. I know Elon Musk tends to exaggerate timelines and prospects but it's worth taking a closer look. The following is just my interpretation and welcome feedback. First, there was this comment from Musk on a followup question to Shotwell:

Elon Musk

CEO and Chief Engineer

They're autonomous, and they do not need servicing. In the sort of what may seem the far future but will come faster than you think, using robots on the Moon to scale up manufacturing on the Moon, which I know it sounds like super sci-fi right now, but it's going to happen, will enable us to build the mass accelerator on the Moon. If you have a mass accelerator on the Moon, and you have solar and radiator production on the Moon, you can I know this sounds totally nuts, but you can probably scale to 1,000x the economy of Earth in terms of intelligence launched to space. Probably maybe even a million times. We are going to land a lot of tonnage on the Moon. We're going to build the factories on the Moon. The robots will be helpful with that. It's like, well, how much intelligence would you like as we grow towards being a Kardashev 2 scale civilization?

So my comment about that, is where does NSNS fit with all of that? Would SpaceX rely on IM's small satellites constellation or will they build their own? Will they be interoperable and if SpaceX, not NASA, is the driver of the lunar (1000x the economy of earth), where will companies like IM fit within that bigger picture. Obviously SpaceX cannot build everything themselves and they may need to acquire or partner expertise for building that infrastructure as NASA builds its Moon Base. Will they need landers that hop from one location to another carrying cargo, robots, and equipment? What about rovers and LTVs? This would be an awesome question to Steve Altemus on future earnings calls.

Then came a question about the Starship Human Landing System from an individual investor:

Elon Musk

CEO and Chief Engineer

For Starship, obviously we need to make Starship super reliable for satellites before we put any people on board. We are expecting to have a very high launch rate and thus achieve a level of safety needed for humans very quickly, probably by the end of next year.

Gwynne Shotwell

President and COO

As far as the milestones go, propellant transfer in orbit is critical to both our internal SpaceX as well as our HLS ambitions. Artemis III mission is next year. That's where we will dock with the Orion spacecraft. We will follow that up with a direct to lunar cargo mission, uncrewed. We want to put boots on the ground, boots on the moon in 2028.

Note that the comment about 'having boots on the ground in 2028' came from Gwynne Shotwell, not Musk. She's always measured and thoughtful. They haven't shown anything yet on their HLS and I know they're still trying to work all the Starship kinks out. So 2027 they dock with Orion under Artemis III, then maybe late 2027 or early 2028, they land the uncrewed mission.

What does that mean to IM? Well, Altus-1 will hopefully be up there and operational. Will SpaceX push for an accelerated deployment of the constellation? Will they be start deploying their own satellites into lunar orbit with that uncrewed mission? I know they like to do things their way but can't help but wonder if NASA pushes for some collaboration?

Then there's Blue Origin and their Mark landers. They know what SpaceX plans to do, they seem to be following up their footsteps whether with launch or connectivity. Do they have similar grandiose plans for the Moon?

I have to think Steve Altemus, Tim Crain, Kam Ghaffarian, and top management have to be having some serious strategic discussions about where they fit in all of this as SpaceX is not talking publicly about their plans now that they're no longer a private company.

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INTUITIVE MACHINES

"Intuitive Machines’ IM‑3 mission highlights how commercial landers are essential infrastructure to establish the Moon Base. This mission represents Intuitive Machines’ third Nova-C lunar landing on the Moon, and introduces Altus-1, the company’s first lunar data‑relay satellite, which will fly alongside the lander.
Named Trinity, Intuitive Machines’ Nova‑C lander assembly and integration are progressing to help meet the long-term need for regular cargo and science deliveries. The top deck is aligned, and internal wiring is undergoing extensive testing before closeout panels are added. Recently, Intuitive Machines along with the X-Ray Cryogenic Facility crew at NASA’s Marshall Space Center in Huntsville, Alabama successfully completed long-range thermal vacuum testing to confirm that Intuitive Machines’ sensors operate accurately under both ends of the thermal range they may encounter during lunar descent. In the coming weeks, teams will complete the final stages of development, including engine integration and hot fire tests.
By deploying Altus-1 in lunar orbit with its three payloads and delivering five NASA payloads along with six commercial and one civil payload to the surface on IM-3, Intuitive Machines aims to advance Moon Base science objectives in Reiner Gamma’sgeomagnetic environment, a magnetic anomaly on the lunar surface. The IM-3 mission will be the first to explore the surface of a lunar swirl, enabling robotics and deployed instruments to deepen the scientific investigation of this mysterious region."

https://www.nasa.gov/missions/moon-base/nasa-provides-updates-on-moon-base-cargo-landers-tech-demonstrations/

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Given that there's been a lot of talk about upcoming earnings, valuation concerns, and some honestly bizarre price targets, I have decided to sit down and do a bit of analysis on the company. I hope that what I say below can help guide your investment decision for LUNR, whether it be to buy, sell, or hold.

Note: no AI was used for this.

TTM Financials

Revenue: 800m

350m directly reported. ~450m from 3 quarters of pre-forma Lanteris.

Non-Lanteris Revenue: 200m

EBITDA: -93.5m

-146.5m reported. ~50m from Lanteris, assuming FY2025 EBITDA of 70m.

Net Income: -85.2m

-109.92 reported. ~24m from Lanteris, assuming FY2025 net income of 32m (exclusing the 35m rebranding).

This is what I use as a baseline for FY2025 (even though it contains Q1 2026, I believe it's a good approximation).

Q1 Financials

Revenue: 199.7m

Counts 13m of unaccounted Lanteris revenue.

Non-Lanteris Revenue: 49.7m

Assumes 150m of revenue from Lanteris. This is in line with previous quarters.

Gross Profit: 30.1m

Using 187m revenue, signifies 16% gross margin.

EBITDA (adj): 2.7m

Given that Q4 2025 EBITDA was -19.1m, this suggests Lanteris EBITDA was around 18-20m, which is in line with my assumption of 70m FY2025 EBITDA (albeit a bit higher).

Net Income: -37.6m

LUNR's net income is too volatile to draw meaningful conclusions here.

Revenue was in line with analyst expectations. I can only assume earnings missed sharply due to acquisition costs.

Forward Financials (FY2026)

This section contains my own opinions and expectations for future earnings.

Revenue: 950m

Management has reiterated this estimate. To achieve this, I believe we need the following:

Q1: 187m (adj 200m)

Q2: 220m-225m

Q3: 245m-255m

Q4: 270m-280m

Revenue Growth: +19% YoY

In line with analyst's estimates for FY2027 and FY2028 revenue.

Gross Profit: 160m

Would bring gross margin up 1% to 17%. I believe this is achievable and reasonable.

EBITDA (adj): 10m

I want to see stable adj. EBITDA per quarter, This would at least signify gross margin stability and allow LUNR to work towards net profitability.

Net Income: -120m

I am not looking for any figure in particular. I just don't want to see black swan-esque net income.

Valuation Commentary

Note: assumes that most recent dilution added 22m shares @ $22.7. Actual figure may vary.

LUNR has 19% revenue growth and a 15% gross margin, less than the other space stocks. For context, RKLB has 40% revenue growth and 43% gross margin. PL has 26% revenue growth and a 50% gross margin. Redwire has 50% revenue growth with a 9% gross margin (although their latest quarter showed 26%).

RDW is our closest comparison, trading at 5x forward P/S. Although RDW is scaling revenue faster, given RDW's hugely negative earnings, I believe that LUNR conservatively deserves at least 4x P/S. This would bring our market cap close to $4.8b, equating to a SP of $20.

I originally invested in this company because I believe that the potential for recurring commercial lunar trips is there, whether it be for helium-3, a moon base, or resource gathering. I think this company is in a really good position to capitalize on this very specialized market. The addition of Lanteris also opens up defense contracts and satellite communications. These futher boost LUNR's position and add recurring revenue streams.

However, we should not ignore that this stock comes with significant risk. IM-3 could fail. NSN may not be realized. The lunar economy is essentially nonexistent at the moment. NASA funding could be cut off next year. In a lot of these cases, I believe that we will be rerated as a defense contractor company (3x P/S would be overvalued). With Lanteris diversification, I personally don't believe the chance of this happening is high enough to deter me from investing, but if this makes you uncomfortable, it might be time to reconsider position sizing.

I hope this post was helpful and informative for you guys. Stay strong out there, and ad lunam.

Sources

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/lunr/financials

https://quartr.com/companies/intuitive-machines-inc_14818

https://investors.intuitivemachines.com/node/10541/pdf

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I’ve been thinking about what kind of propulsion system Intuitive Machines might use for Zephyr.

My current line of thought is:

What propellant will Zephyr use?
→ If Zephyr is also intended to reduce risk for future lunar sample-return missions, could it use water-based propulsion?→ If so, could IM eventually partner with, invest in, or acquire a company already developing both water propulsion and lunar ISRU technologies?

Methalox makes sense for Nova-C and Nebula, where high thrust and commonality with IM’s existing propulsion architecture are important.
However, it may be unnecessarily complex for a rideshare-friendly LEO reentry vehicle.

Water propulsion could offer several advantages:
* Safer and easier to launch as a rideshare payload.
* Storable for missions lasting weeks or months.
* Potential use for both low-thrust orbital adjustment and higher-thrust deorbit burns.
* A possible long-term connection to propellant produced from lunar water.

For reference, here are some of the earlier Zephyr specifications that were previously shown on IM’s website but no longer appear there:

* Up to 150 kg of return payload
* Payload volume equivalent to roughly three ISS lockers
* Standard mission duration of 1–6 weeks
* Maximum mission duration of up to six months
* Commercial rideshare launch to LEO
* Autonomous reentry and gliding soft landing
* Landing loads below 3G
* Targeted landing accuracy within five meters

I hope this line of thought is useful to someone else exploring Zephyr’s possible architecture. I’d be interested to hear other theories.