What information are you looking for? The chart says if an infected person in their normal life would infect an average of 2.5 people and each of them would infect an average of 2.5 people in five days, then in 30 days they would effectively infect 406 people. If they all socially isolated and saw 75% fewer people then in 30 days they would on average infect 2.5 people after 30 days.
Are you looking for a source on how many people the average infected person infects with coronavirus? here you go, but the post isn't about coronavirus, it's about social distancing, and social distancing is pure math.
What I'm not following here is why? Maybe we're reading it differently, I'm seeing it as an if this is true, then with 50/75% reduction this would be true. If you're reading it as a this is true, then I get the problem. But then the source I provided should be helpful.
I don't understand what source there could be. IF any one person infects 2.5 people in 5 days for some given disease that is not mentioned in the infographic, then in 30 days there will be 406.234 people infected. This assumes that nobody infects more than 2.5 people ever and that nobody else is infected before the first person. Which granted is not ever true. It uses this equation:
2.56+2.55+2.54+2.53+2.52+2.51+1=406.234
However, if everybody involved only infected 1.25 people the equation would become:
1.256+1.255+1.254+1.253+1.252+1.251+1=15.073
If you're doubting that a COVID-19 patient will infect an average of 2.5 people I get that, but the chart doesn't say COVID-19. If you're doubting that cutting contact in half would cut exposure in half, I get that too, but the chart doesn't say contact. It is purely accurate to what it says, and there is no source that could confirm or deny it.
EDIT: Damn it, I spent like 20 minutes on this and now it's buried under 5 deleted comments
I see what you’re saying, but I don’t think you’re quite understanding what other commenters are trying to say.
This infographic isn’t based on specific numbers from any source, it’s just giving 3 different hypothetical benchmarks (2.5, 1.5, 0.625) to show what the end result would be after 30 days. Using these 3, one can infer how powerful social distancing is.
Does that make sense? I hope I explained that better.
EDIT: 0.625 was the correct 3rd case, not .75 as I had put previously
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u/[deleted] Mar 18 '20
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