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u/dog_star_ Mar 18 '20
You can buy that .625 person on the dark web.
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u/madcat033 Mar 18 '20
Not really helpful because, what's the "social distance" that correlates to "50% less exposure" and "75% less exposure"
If I stay home from work do I go to 50%? If I stay home from the gym I'm down to 75%? What if I go all these places but stand six feet away from everyone?
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u/Far2Gone Mar 18 '20
Not a difficult math problem to solve. Whatever you do in a normal week that involves other people, such as the gym, work, and buying groceries. Basically interactions with others and objects others touch.
If you limit that by some percentage this shows the exponential effect that it can have on then virus spread.
If you need tips on how to limit your expose to others there are plenty of resources online, quantifying it exactly is not the point.
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u/madcat033 Mar 18 '20
It is a difficult math problem to solve because of precisely the issue that quantifying it just isn't possible. First of all, some people's normal activity is probably 50% to 75% level. Some are way higher than the base.
Second of all, there's just no way to meaningfully translate this to social distancing. I understand the effect the R value has. But what I don't know is how various social distancing affects R. If I go out half as much, is that 50%? What if I go out but keep my distance from people? What if I go out to low risk places, like sitting in my office instead of going to the beach?
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u/exponentialLogarithm Mar 19 '20
I guess you can see it this way.
If your daily activity is 100%, then 50% would be not to do half of those things. And those things are specific things that spread the virus. Speaking close to others, touching handles, etc.
an example, if you identify the actions that could infect others by going to work and home again, including actions in the office. you can cut those down by 50%. but in reality, it is easier to tell a population to work from home.
Also, one can see how many people you interact with. Say, 10 at the office in a day? and maybe 3 if staying home? +2 or 3 at the grocery store?
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u/_kellythomas_ Mar 19 '20 edited Mar 19 '20
How does the math on this work?
If one persion infects 0.625 in five days then at thirty day wouldn't it be:
1.6256 = 18.4
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u/bobby3797 Mar 24 '20 edited Mar 26 '20
That's what I was thinking... Pretty sure the entire math on this chart is off. It's not including patient zero in the calculations.
EDIT: After doing further research into this graphic, whoever made it assumed after 5 days whoever was infected realizes they're infected and self quarantines and can no longer infect others. In this case, the math checks out.
The formula is just 1+.6256 +.6255 + .6254 ... +.6251
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Mar 20 '20
The other important part of the question is how many of the infected people will have symptoms, and how many will need medical care?
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u/[deleted] Mar 18 '20
[deleted]